Tuesday, June 23, 2009
**IMPORTANT NOTICE**
Please note that all content from this blog will now be hosted on my new website, www.irishracingtrends.com.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Sunday, June 7, 2009
Weekend NAP - June 7th
Roscommon 2.25 - Hideaway Girl
Last week: Greenfield Noel, WON @ 6/4
Season to date: -0.75
Last week: Greenfield Noel, WON @ 6/4
Season to date: -0.75
Saturday, May 30, 2009
Saturday, May 23, 2009
Sunday, May 17, 2009
Saturday, May 9, 2009
Friday, May 1, 2009
Monday, April 27, 2009
Rabobank Champion Hurdle - Punchestown, May 1st: The Key Trends
- Noel Meade has a poor record in the race; his 8 runners have ran:45672444 with the second being a 4/6 favourite.
- Of all the age-groups, 7yos have the best record with 6 winners and 3 runners-up from a third of the total runners.
- Only 3 of the last 10 winners had already won an open Grade 1 hurdle race.
- 6 of the last 8 winners were second-season hurdlers.
- 8 winners in the past decade had already won at Punchestown while 6 had won at the Festival meeting.
- The last 10 winners were ridden no further back than tracking the leaders.
- No favourite has won since 1999.
For a more in-depth analysis of the big Punchestown races, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog or the Stats Guides on the At The Races Punchestown website.
- Of all the age-groups, 7yos have the best record with 6 winners and 3 runners-up from a third of the total runners.
- Only 3 of the last 10 winners had already won an open Grade 1 hurdle race.
- 6 of the last 8 winners were second-season hurdlers.
- 8 winners in the past decade had already won at Punchestown while 6 had won at the Festival meeting.
- The last 10 winners were ridden no further back than tracking the leaders.
- No favourite has won since 1999.
For a more in-depth analysis of the big Punchestown races, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog or the Stats Guides on the At The Races Punchestown website.
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Weekend NAP - April 26th
Croke Park 2.00 - Monaghan (13/8 best price)
Last Week: Kargali, WON @ 5/2
Season to date: +2.75
Last Week: Kargali, WON @ 5/2
Season to date: +2.75
Friday, April 17, 2009
Weekend NAP - April 18th/19th
Leopardstown 3.25 - Kargali
Last week: Sioduil, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: + 0.25
Last week: Sioduil, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: + 0.25
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle: Fairyhouse, April 14th – The Key Trends
- Subsequent three-time Grade 1 winner Macs Joy is by far the best recent winner of this race and not surprisingly busted a few trends; he lumbered 11-0 to victory in 2004 but no other winner since 1998 has carried more than 10-4 to win.
- Macs Joy is also the only winner rated higher than 120 win in the last 11 renewals. 6 of the last 11 winners were rated between 102 and 106 but with the top weight in this year’s race due to run off 151 such low weights may struggle to get into the race.
- 6yos are the dominant age group; since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners, 6 runners-up plus 4 further places.
- Arthur Moore has a sensational record in the race – he’s had 3 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 more places. His entries this year are Sole Bonne Femme, Native Clan, Meritorious and Fistoulig. Charlie Swan, with 2 wins and 1 third, is next best.
- Leopardstown handicap form works out very well here. Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here in 2001 and 2002 respectively but the 2m event run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ has been an even better guide with 5 of the last 10 winners having their most recent outing in that race, including last year’s winner Major Sensation.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners had more than 3 runs since January 1st.
- Unexposed, improving handicappers have come to the fore lately. Of the last 8 winners, none had more than 4 starts in handicap hurdles.
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners was held up during the race.
- Macs Joy is also the only winner rated higher than 120 win in the last 11 renewals. 6 of the last 11 winners were rated between 102 and 106 but with the top weight in this year’s race due to run off 151 such low weights may struggle to get into the race.
- 6yos are the dominant age group; since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners, 6 runners-up plus 4 further places.
- Arthur Moore has a sensational record in the race – he’s had 3 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 more places. His entries this year are Sole Bonne Femme, Native Clan, Meritorious and Fistoulig. Charlie Swan, with 2 wins and 1 third, is next best.
- Leopardstown handicap form works out very well here. Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here in 2001 and 2002 respectively but the 2m event run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ has been an even better guide with 5 of the last 10 winners having their most recent outing in that race, including last year’s winner Major Sensation.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners had more than 3 runs since January 1st.
- Unexposed, improving handicappers have come to the fore lately. Of the last 8 winners, none had more than 4 starts in handicap hurdles.
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners was held up during the race.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Meeting Review: Curragh, April 5th
Positives: Mad About You made me look a bit silly when bolting up in the Gladness and the blinkers are obviously the key to her; she was a different horse to the one that simply refused to go by inferior rivals a fortnight ago without the headgear. The race was run in a decent time (3.2 seconds faster than the 3yo listed race earlier in the card) so the form could be solid and Kargali looks one to take from the race. Having won just a maiden and conditions event last term, this was clear career-best and there should be more improvement to come up in trip as he was off the bridle early here. Given his ordinary form at three, he seems an unusual choice to be kept in training as an older horse but the hint should be taken; John Oxx rarely, if ever, keeps Aga Khan-owned horses in training beyond three if they’re not up to pattern class and this one should be making his mark in that grade soon enough. Soft ground would appear vital to him. The time of the 10f maiden compared well with the listed race over the same trip with the winner of the former taking just over a second longer to complete the course despite carrying 4lbs more than his elders. Princeton Plains made an eye-catching debut, staying on well from off the pace, and should be better for the experience. The closing 2m event had its usual field of decent jumpers prepping for races at Fairyhouse and Punchestown and An Cathaoir Mor ran very well in fourth, making up plenty of ground in the closing stages. The 6yo is a really keen-going sort and didn’t help himself by refusing to settle in the early stages, but he’s got so many gears he might be able to win on the level. It’s over hurdles that he’s off more immediate interest however and this spin should have put him spot-on for the valuable 2-mile handicap hurdle on the Tuesday of the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting. His recent hurdles form has been progressive and his mark is unlikely to reflect the full scope of his ability just yet as his fast-finishing style of racing prevents the handicapper getting to grips with him. The fifth home, Dreamy Gent, tends to need a run each season so this was encouraging and I sincerely hope he is campaigned on the flat over the summer as his mark of 73 is ripe for exploitation. The 7yo gelding was an excellent second to subsequent listed winner Jane Austen at Killarney last July, giving the winner 22lbs, form that makes his current rating look silly. His trainer has a fine record of winning handicaps with jumpers – the likes of Sandymount Earl and Fantoche spring to mind – and Dreamy Gent can certainly win middle to long-distance events on decent ground over the coming months.
Negatives: The Racing Post analysis team have pointed to Xtraxtra running green in his two starts but that looks generous as Michael Grassick’s juvenile is just ungenuine. The son of Titus Livius hung in when asked for his effort in the opening race of the season and didn’t look in love with the game in the 5f maiden here as he allowed Eireannach, who was travelling worse than him at the time, to get on top close home only to run on again in the finish. Not a good sign.
Pointers: I’m reluctant to give Stand And Fight a negative just yet for failing to land a colossal and sustained gamble in the opener (backed from 3/1 in the morning into 9/10 on course) but you’d have to be sceptical of a horse with his profile. Not only was he the only gelding in the field, he also runs in the colours of the trainer’s wife. For the most part (though the Jackie Bolger-owned runners are the obvious exception) horses only turn out in these sort of silks if no one else wants them and certainly few animals of note have carried the navy colours of Mrs. Kevin Prendergast, a state of play I don’t expect Stand And Fight to change. Richelieu is a hold-up horse that comes with only one run and he looked to hit the front plenty soon enough under Shane Foley in the 6f handicap; this was a weak race but he could have done with being held onto for longer. 6f on a decent surface (good-soft or faster or the all-weather) are his optimum conditions – his form figures under such conditions read:371221215 – and should continue to give his running when granted same even though his mark may be high enough. Jim Bolger came into the meeting with a 36% strike-rate in the last 14 days and the spectacular run of the yard continued as he registered a treble. His horses should be given plenty of scrutiny at present.
Negatives: The Racing Post analysis team have pointed to Xtraxtra running green in his two starts but that looks generous as Michael Grassick’s juvenile is just ungenuine. The son of Titus Livius hung in when asked for his effort in the opening race of the season and didn’t look in love with the game in the 5f maiden here as he allowed Eireannach, who was travelling worse than him at the time, to get on top close home only to run on again in the finish. Not a good sign.
Pointers: I’m reluctant to give Stand And Fight a negative just yet for failing to land a colossal and sustained gamble in the opener (backed from 3/1 in the morning into 9/10 on course) but you’d have to be sceptical of a horse with his profile. Not only was he the only gelding in the field, he also runs in the colours of the trainer’s wife. For the most part (though the Jackie Bolger-owned runners are the obvious exception) horses only turn out in these sort of silks if no one else wants them and certainly few animals of note have carried the navy colours of Mrs. Kevin Prendergast, a state of play I don’t expect Stand And Fight to change. Richelieu is a hold-up horse that comes with only one run and he looked to hit the front plenty soon enough under Shane Foley in the 6f handicap; this was a weak race but he could have done with being held onto for longer. 6f on a decent surface (good-soft or faster or the all-weather) are his optimum conditions – his form figures under such conditions read:371221215 – and should continue to give his running when granted same even though his mark may be high enough. Jim Bolger came into the meeting with a 36% strike-rate in the last 14 days and the spectacular run of the yard continued as he registered a treble. His horses should be given plenty of scrutiny at present.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Irish Grand National - Fairyhouse, April 13th: The Key Trends
- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
For a more in-depth analysis of this topic, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
For a more in-depth analysis of this topic, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog.
Friday, March 27, 2009
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Meeting Review: The Curragh, March 22nd
Positives: An esteemed paddock judge reliably informed me that King Ledley was light years ahead of the remainder on looks in the opener and so too it proved on the track as he bolted away from Chelsea Lately by over 4ls. His breeding is all American so better ground won’t be a problem and he looks the type to pick up another race or two, perhaps even a minor pattern contest, before the Ballydoyle mob unleash their better juveniles. My trends tell me it’s more or less impossible for a prominent racer to win the Lincoln (no winner or runner-up has been on the pace in the past decade) so the performance of Estrela Brage, who was mugged on the line having been up there throughout, has to be upgraded. The fact that his mark of 97 looked stiff (he been well beaten off the same rating last term) suggests he may have improved (wore cheek-pieces for the first time here) in the interim. Apparently he’s due to be sent over hurdles but this may tempt connections into a rethink as the 6yo may yet be able to win on the level. Sioduil was an eye-catcher the Birdcatcher meeting last term when running a screamer from a bad draw but most of her other form is only ordinary; however, the evidence of her run in the Madrid suggests she will be winning races if dropped back in trip. The little grey was right there at the furlong pole but emptied totally on the run to the line and finished only ninth, looking a blatant non-stayer. She’ll do much better back at 6f and the fact her trainer had her entered in the 6f handicap on this card too suggests he too believes the Oasis Dream filly may be a sprinter.
Negatives: Mad About You deserved to be odds-on for the Park Express but in hindsight her SP of 30/100 was pretty silly and she is one to be very wary of after managing only third. Her trainer had been so confident to give her as his best bet at Cheltenham Preview Night four weeks ago and the weight of money that came for her suggested he hadn’t left much to work on. Everything went right for her in the race itself as stable-mate Firey Red (the moral winner of the race who was sacrificed as pace-maker) pulled off the rail over 3 furlongs out to allow her through but despite having travelled supremely well, she never actually put her head in front and looked most unwilling. It’s worrying when a filly that finished placed behind the likes of Zarkava, Halfway To Heaven and Promising Lead does the same behind Oh Goodness Me and Firey Red, and the 4yo is one to leave alone next time, even with the blinkers back on. Another Weld horse with a dubious attitude is Mr Topaz, who despite looking well-in off 82 and being heavily-backed, couldn’t win the Madrid. Pat Smullen had the 3yo in the right place throughout but he ran around when asked to make his challenge and carried his head awkwardly, going down by a neck in the end. He’d done something very similar when winning narrowly at Cork last backend and I expect him to do so again; his placed form behind pattern performers Ryehill Dreamer and Vitruvian Man looks good in handicaps but he doesn’t have the will to win.
Pointers: Having got the Lincoln well and truly wrong I was delighted to see a few people used the trends to pick the winner; I’m not sure how, but well done anyway! In fairness, Pollen was an unexposed 4yo with a decent draw from a yard that won in the race with a similar type in Tolpuddle and the likelihood she would be held up was another plus. Though this looked a weak renewal beforehand, if she goes the way of the other winning 4yos she’ll be competing in pattern races before the season’s end. Some cut in the ground is important to her and she obviously likes it here (track form figures:411); she certainly didn’t impress in her condition beforehand so there may be improvement to come on that front. Jim Bolger is hardly renowned for having his string ready early in the season (just 2 winners from 42 runners in March since 2004) but he had a treble here and this term could well prove an exception to the norm. Eddie Lynam endured a sickener in the Lincoln but his yard has also hit the ground running with form figures over the weekend of:1633052850240, only two of which were returned single-figure prices. The sole winner, Mourinho, is likely to remain well-treated having won off 80 on Friday night and won’t mind stepping up in trip.
Negatives: Mad About You deserved to be odds-on for the Park Express but in hindsight her SP of 30/100 was pretty silly and she is one to be very wary of after managing only third. Her trainer had been so confident to give her as his best bet at Cheltenham Preview Night four weeks ago and the weight of money that came for her suggested he hadn’t left much to work on. Everything went right for her in the race itself as stable-mate Firey Red (the moral winner of the race who was sacrificed as pace-maker) pulled off the rail over 3 furlongs out to allow her through but despite having travelled supremely well, she never actually put her head in front and looked most unwilling. It’s worrying when a filly that finished placed behind the likes of Zarkava, Halfway To Heaven and Promising Lead does the same behind Oh Goodness Me and Firey Red, and the 4yo is one to leave alone next time, even with the blinkers back on. Another Weld horse with a dubious attitude is Mr Topaz, who despite looking well-in off 82 and being heavily-backed, couldn’t win the Madrid. Pat Smullen had the 3yo in the right place throughout but he ran around when asked to make his challenge and carried his head awkwardly, going down by a neck in the end. He’d done something very similar when winning narrowly at Cork last backend and I expect him to do so again; his placed form behind pattern performers Ryehill Dreamer and Vitruvian Man looks good in handicaps but he doesn’t have the will to win.
Pointers: Having got the Lincoln well and truly wrong I was delighted to see a few people used the trends to pick the winner; I’m not sure how, but well done anyway! In fairness, Pollen was an unexposed 4yo with a decent draw from a yard that won in the race with a similar type in Tolpuddle and the likelihood she would be held up was another plus. Though this looked a weak renewal beforehand, if she goes the way of the other winning 4yos she’ll be competing in pattern races before the season’s end. Some cut in the ground is important to her and she obviously likes it here (track form figures:411); she certainly didn’t impress in her condition beforehand so there may be improvement to come on that front. Jim Bolger is hardly renowned for having his string ready early in the season (just 2 winners from 42 runners in March since 2004) but he had a treble here and this term could well prove an exception to the norm. Eddie Lynam endured a sickener in the Lincoln but his yard has also hit the ground running with form figures over the weekend of:1633052850240, only two of which were returned single-figure prices. The sole winner, Mourinho, is likely to remain well-treated having won off 80 on Friday night and won’t mind stepping up in trip.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Weekend NAP - March 22nd
Curragh 4.15 - Silver Tide
Season to date: +1.25
This year's Lincoln looks a weak renewal and the top few in the betting look readily opposable: Designated Decoy (attitude), Rock And Roll Kid (trip) and Estrela Brage (badly weighted). A chance is taken on Silver Tide who is essentially a 9f specialist but my stats tell me that proven ability over further than the race distance is a positive and the strongly run mile will suit her ideally. A prep run at Dundalk should have her spot on and the 5yo is pretty consistent with cut. Of the others, I'd fear Crooked Throw and Pollen, though you're not getting many sweets with the latter's prices, especially considering that she flopped on her sole handicap run when fancied.
I'm loathe to tip an unraced horse in any race but there are sound reasons for suggesting Cluain Alainn in the last at the Curragh. The likely favourite Toraidhe is one to get as he looked to have a most unwilling attitude in 2 starts last term and his yard habitually start slowly; Bolger has had just 2 winners from 42 runners in March in the last 4 years. John Oxx on the other hand loves to target this race and his runners since 2004 have ran:12341172. Cluain Alainn is from the family of Ridgewood Pearl and I hope he can kick-start what could be a pretty special year for the Oxx three-year-olds.
Season to date: +1.25
This year's Lincoln looks a weak renewal and the top few in the betting look readily opposable: Designated Decoy (attitude), Rock And Roll Kid (trip) and Estrela Brage (badly weighted). A chance is taken on Silver Tide who is essentially a 9f specialist but my stats tell me that proven ability over further than the race distance is a positive and the strongly run mile will suit her ideally. A prep run at Dundalk should have her spot on and the 5yo is pretty consistent with cut. Of the others, I'd fear Crooked Throw and Pollen, though you're not getting many sweets with the latter's prices, especially considering that she flopped on her sole handicap run when fancied.
I'm loathe to tip an unraced horse in any race but there are sound reasons for suggesting Cluain Alainn in the last at the Curragh. The likely favourite Toraidhe is one to get as he looked to have a most unwilling attitude in 2 starts last term and his yard habitually start slowly; Bolger has had just 2 winners from 42 runners in March in the last 4 years. John Oxx on the other hand loves to target this race and his runners since 2004 have ran:12341172. Cluain Alainn is from the family of Ridgewood Pearl and I hope he can kick-start what could be a pretty special year for the Oxx three-year-olds.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The Lincoln - The Curragh, March 22nd: The Key Trends
- A few of the bigger yards have pretty poor records in the first big handicap of the flat season. Kevin Prendergast has managed just a fourth place finish from 15 runners since 1999 while Jim Bolger has had only a third from 9 runners in the same time period. Ger Lyons is without a place from 8 attempts.
- 4yos make up the bulk of the field but their overall strike-rate isn’t great. If you’re backing a 4yo make sure it’s a particular type, namely an unexposed type that was lightly raced in handicaps at three. The four winning four-year-olds since 1998 (Deauville Vision, Bawaader, Tolpuddle & Tarry Flynn) had just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the season rated over 100 and running in pattern races.
- This race can turn into a real slog (all of the last 10 renewals have been run on yielding-soft or worse, though the weather forecast suggests it could be slightly quicker this year) and older horses that have developed stamina with age win more than their share. From just 17% of the total runners, horses aged between seven and nine have supplied 40% of the winners as well as 7 places.
- Throw out unproven stayers without a second thought. All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile while many had shown form over further; Crooked Throw, Victram, Atlantic Rhapsody and Wray had all won over hurdles while Tolpuddle, Livadiya and Tarry Flynn had won over nine furlongs or further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less to victory and the place stats are similar – 24 of the 30 horses hitting the frame had 9-0 or less on their backs.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 87 and 92.
- The draw is crucial here and horses drawn in the middle third have little chance. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 24 of the last 30 placed horses) were drawn within 8 stalls of either rail. In an average year, about 24 horses go to post so this stat should allow you to knock out a third of the field.
- Front-runners and prominent racers should be opposed relentlessly. Since 1999, 5 of the winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 4 tracked the pace while just 4 of the 30 placed horses raced prominently and none finished better than third.
- 4yos make up the bulk of the field but their overall strike-rate isn’t great. If you’re backing a 4yo make sure it’s a particular type, namely an unexposed type that was lightly raced in handicaps at three. The four winning four-year-olds since 1998 (Deauville Vision, Bawaader, Tolpuddle & Tarry Flynn) had just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the season rated over 100 and running in pattern races.
- This race can turn into a real slog (all of the last 10 renewals have been run on yielding-soft or worse, though the weather forecast suggests it could be slightly quicker this year) and older horses that have developed stamina with age win more than their share. From just 17% of the total runners, horses aged between seven and nine have supplied 40% of the winners as well as 7 places.
- Throw out unproven stayers without a second thought. All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile while many had shown form over further; Crooked Throw, Victram, Atlantic Rhapsody and Wray had all won over hurdles while Tolpuddle, Livadiya and Tarry Flynn had won over nine furlongs or further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less to victory and the place stats are similar – 24 of the 30 horses hitting the frame had 9-0 or less on their backs.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 87 and 92.
- The draw is crucial here and horses drawn in the middle third have little chance. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 24 of the last 30 placed horses) were drawn within 8 stalls of either rail. In an average year, about 24 horses go to post so this stat should allow you to knock out a third of the field.
- Front-runners and prominent racers should be opposed relentlessly. Since 1999, 5 of the winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 4 tracked the pace while just 4 of the 30 placed horses raced prominently and none finished better than third.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Weekend NAP - March 14th, 2008
Naas 2.10 - Jaffonnien
Season to date: +1.25
Jaffonnien may have failed to complete last time but was travelling best of all when tipping up over course-and-distance in maiden hurdle fought out by Smoking Aces and Puyol. I'd be keen on either of those if they were in here and Jaffonien probably would have beaten both so he has to be interesting getting 6lbs from the previous winners in the line-up.
In the weekend's big handicaps, Western Gale and Mustangsallyrally have chances. Western Gale is returning from a break in the Johnstown Handicap Hurdle at Naas but goes well fresh and just wasn't getting home over fences earlier in the season; the drop to 19f will suit. On the book, Mustangsallyrally has it all to do to reverse form with Knock On The Head on their Gowran running but the step up to 3 miles is much more in his favour and he may have hit the front too soon last time.
Season to date: +1.25
Jaffonnien may have failed to complete last time but was travelling best of all when tipping up over course-and-distance in maiden hurdle fought out by Smoking Aces and Puyol. I'd be keen on either of those if they were in here and Jaffonien probably would have beaten both so he has to be interesting getting 6lbs from the previous winners in the line-up.
In the weekend's big handicaps, Western Gale and Mustangsallyrally have chances. Western Gale is returning from a break in the Johnstown Handicap Hurdle at Naas but goes well fresh and just wasn't getting home over fences earlier in the season; the drop to 19f will suit. On the book, Mustangsallyrally has it all to do to reverse form with Knock On The Head on their Gowran running but the step up to 3 miles is much more in his favour and he may have hit the front too soon last time.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Weekend NAP - March 1st
Leopardstown 3.25 - Romarca
Last Week: An Cathaoir Mor, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: +2.25
It seems that everyone is talking about the post-racing gallops at Leopardstown tomorrow but my own interest is on the seven races taking place beforehand, all of which have winners to be backed in them and all of which are much less competitive than the action from Prestbury Park on Tuesday week.
The 15-runner handicap hurdle is a lot less competitive than the field size suggests and Romarca looks the value at a tissue price of around 7/1. Her overall profile of 1 win from 17 starts isn't convincing but it masks the fact that she's run screamers in her 3 runs at Leopardstown - a 16/1 second to the decent Raise Your Heart on the flat in July 2007, a 50/1 fifth (promoted to fourth) behind the classy pair River Liane and Made In Taipan at this meeting last year and an excellent second at the same price to Savitha on Hennessy Day. That race has already worked out well - the fifth and sixth chased home the well-handicapped An Cathaoir Mor last weekend, pulling 21ls clear of the fourth while tenth won a decent event at Fairyhouse last Saturday - and given the zeal with which Romarca travelled that day, the return to the minimum trip has to be a positive. This will be just her third run in a handicap so she's still open to improvement, and there's every chance she'll come on for what was her first run in two and a half months last time.
In the other big handicap, the Mick Holly, Major Sensation looks a solid favourite. This has been a strong race for trends followers down the years and he looks a perfect fit, being an unexposed,Arthur Moore-trained runner (3 wins in the last 10 renewals) with course form and rated between 110 and 120. He ran a cracker when the handbrake was let off for the first time over fences last time and while his stamina over the trip is an issue, he's a half-brother to stayers Mini Sensation and Shotgun Willy.
Phoenix Run is also worth a few quid in the opening maiden. The 2m6f trip appeared to catch him out last time and he will enjoy this drop in distance and he travels much better in his races than his market rivals Qualviro and Uimhiraceathair. Mask Of Darkness could be on his 'job' but this looks much tougher than the Chepstow race he was third in last time.
Last Week: An Cathaoir Mor, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: +2.25
It seems that everyone is talking about the post-racing gallops at Leopardstown tomorrow but my own interest is on the seven races taking place beforehand, all of which have winners to be backed in them and all of which are much less competitive than the action from Prestbury Park on Tuesday week.
The 15-runner handicap hurdle is a lot less competitive than the field size suggests and Romarca looks the value at a tissue price of around 7/1. Her overall profile of 1 win from 17 starts isn't convincing but it masks the fact that she's run screamers in her 3 runs at Leopardstown - a 16/1 second to the decent Raise Your Heart on the flat in July 2007, a 50/1 fifth (promoted to fourth) behind the classy pair River Liane and Made In Taipan at this meeting last year and an excellent second at the same price to Savitha on Hennessy Day. That race has already worked out well - the fifth and sixth chased home the well-handicapped An Cathaoir Mor last weekend, pulling 21ls clear of the fourth while tenth won a decent event at Fairyhouse last Saturday - and given the zeal with which Romarca travelled that day, the return to the minimum trip has to be a positive. This will be just her third run in a handicap so she's still open to improvement, and there's every chance she'll come on for what was her first run in two and a half months last time.
In the other big handicap, the Mick Holly, Major Sensation looks a solid favourite. This has been a strong race for trends followers down the years and he looks a perfect fit, being an unexposed,Arthur Moore-trained runner (3 wins in the last 10 renewals) with course form and rated between 110 and 120. He ran a cracker when the handbrake was let off for the first time over fences last time and while his stamina over the trip is an issue, he's a half-brother to stayers Mini Sensation and Shotgun Willy.
Phoenix Run is also worth a few quid in the opening maiden. The 2m6f trip appeared to catch him out last time and he will enjoy this drop in distance and he travels much better in his races than his market rivals Qualviro and Uimhiraceathair. Mask Of Darkness could be on his 'job' but this looks much tougher than the Chepstow race he was third in last time.
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Weekend NAP - February 22nd
Naas 3.50 - An Cathaoir Mor
Last Week: Agus A Vic, WON @ 11/4
Season to date: +0.25
Some decent graded races at Naas this Sunday, but the best bets appear to be in the 'lesser' races. An Cathaoir Mor ran a cracker over course and distance two starts ago, chasing home the classy pair Cousin Vinny and Realt Dubh, and built on the promise of that with a narrow win in a hot handicap at Gowran last time. A 6lb hike looks lenient as the runner-up Farringdon is a solid yardstick and the fourth home Savitha franked the form in no uncertain terms at Leopardstown last week. The selection has shown up consistently well on this sort of ground (excluding maiden hurdles, his form figures on yielding-soft or worse are:1331) and is over-priced at 4/1 on the tissue. The favourite Pistol Flash looks a well-handicapped horse but is hard to fancy on her most recent effort when the money was down and his biggest danger could be the four-year-old Celtic Strand, who's age group have been running well in this type of race.
The opening event is as hot a maiden hurdle as you're likely to see at this time of year and narrow preference is for Puyol over Smoking Aces. He split a pair of subsequent winners last time and may just be better suited by the minimum trip that Tom Taaffe's runner. In the staying handicap hurdle, Don't Rush It is sure to enjoy the step up to 3 miles. His best effort by far came over 2m7f at Thurles (the form of which looks solid) and he is a half-brother to the decent staying chaser Howaya Pet. His last run over an insufficient two miles is masking the fact that he's in good form and can take the measure of Tooman Lake.
Last Week: Agus A Vic, WON @ 11/4
Season to date: +0.25
Some decent graded races at Naas this Sunday, but the best bets appear to be in the 'lesser' races. An Cathaoir Mor ran a cracker over course and distance two starts ago, chasing home the classy pair Cousin Vinny and Realt Dubh, and built on the promise of that with a narrow win in a hot handicap at Gowran last time. A 6lb hike looks lenient as the runner-up Farringdon is a solid yardstick and the fourth home Savitha franked the form in no uncertain terms at Leopardstown last week. The selection has shown up consistently well on this sort of ground (excluding maiden hurdles, his form figures on yielding-soft or worse are:1331) and is over-priced at 4/1 on the tissue. The favourite Pistol Flash looks a well-handicapped horse but is hard to fancy on her most recent effort when the money was down and his biggest danger could be the four-year-old Celtic Strand, who's age group have been running well in this type of race.
The opening event is as hot a maiden hurdle as you're likely to see at this time of year and narrow preference is for Puyol over Smoking Aces. He split a pair of subsequent winners last time and may just be better suited by the minimum trip that Tom Taaffe's runner. In the staying handicap hurdle, Don't Rush It is sure to enjoy the step up to 3 miles. His best effort by far came over 2m7f at Thurles (the form of which looks solid) and he is a half-brother to the decent staying chaser Howaya Pet. His last run over an insufficient two miles is masking the fact that he's in good form and can take the measure of Tooman Lake.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Weekend Racing Review: Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Navan
Positives: Joe Crowley’s stable had been painfully out of form before Saturday’s meeting at Gowran (only 1 jumps winner since the previous April from 96 runners) but that didn’t stop Knock On The Head landing a touch from a lenient-looking chase rating of 110. A 13lb higher-mark tempers enthusiasm for him next time out but I’d be keen to keep the runner-up Mustangsallyrally on side. On the surface of things, Tom Mullins’ 8yo is bloody inconsistent but a closer look at his form says otherwise; his record over fences is an impressive:32212 while soft ground or worse (form figures:F0113031612 in handicaps) and the assistance of Emmet Mullins (4 wins and 3 places from 12 rides) are important to him. While he wouldn’t have beaten the favourite under any sort of ride, I suspect Mullins hit the front too soon on Mustangsallyrally – the 5lb claimer had been very keen to hold on to him until late when they last won at Fairyhouse. Up 4lbs for this, he will be of significant interest when granted his conditions in ordinary handicap chases. I’m finding it increasingly difficult to back horses coming off strange mid-season breaks when there have been ample opportunities for them to run; such animals have almost invariably met with some training problem or another. Clarified was one such horse in the 2m2f beginners chase at Gowran and he certainly ran like he needed the run; travelling well to look like the most likely winner to the second last only to blow up in the closing stages. He’s obviously been brought back to something like his best and will be hard to beat in a maiden event next time; I’d be especially interested if he renews rivalry with the runner-up Captain Conflict next time as he’s open to more improvement than that one who has a dubious attitude anyway. Though his connections are unlikely to ever make him a price, Solwhit [WON 6/1 - Aintree, 4/4/09] fairly took the breath away with his turn-of-foot between the last two obstacles in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle where he settled the race in a matter of strides and all this despite the testing surface. I don’t know how Charles Byrnes would have explained his lacklustre effort on similar ground at Thurles in December (where he got turned over at 1/3) in light of this performance but the stewards didn’t see fit to call him. His trainer’s decision not to enter him in this year’s Champion Hurdle is an interesting one – he apparently wants to keep him for next year’s renewal – but he certainly wouldn’t be out of place at the top table on this evidence. Cooldine [WON 9/4 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] got rid of any doubts about his ability to go left-handed in winning the Moriarty at Leopardstown and in the process marked himself down as a serious candidate for the RSA Chase. His form may not be quite at that level yet but that wouldn’t concern me at all – the Cheltenham staying event is most often won by a horse that improves for the test on the day rather a runner that has been slogging through bad ground all winter, though Denman is an obvious exception. As a multiple graded winning novice hurdler who finished fourth to Blazing Bailey at Punchestown it’s not as if he’s lacking in class, and with just 3 chase starts under his belt he’s open to any amount of improvement. His trainer’s exceptional record in the race is another string to his bow. Despite his status as a hunter chaser, Agus A Vic is one of my favourite horses in training and he confirmed his position at the top the Irish hunting scene with a career best in the Raymond Smith Memorial. The horse is a punters’ friend as he never wins by much, ensuring his price isn’t too short when he next runs. Jamie Codd got him jumping like never before and I sincerely hope he keeps the ride; the combination should be hard to beat in this sort of contest for the rest of the season. There’s not much to report from the rescheduled Navan fixture on Monday though Light Sentence might be worth watching now that he’s had the required three runs to get a handicap mark. The fact that he’s been getting further from the judge in each start may be a worrying trend but his run here came after a break and Ken Whelan (who’s total of 1 win since the turn of 2008 tells its own story) wasn’t too keen on putting him into the race at any point. The form of his Listowel run in September behind decent types Glenquest and Final Question suggests that he can win a small handicap, probably on better ground and with a bigger name jockey up.
Negatives: Following an early career where he won 6 of his first 8 starts, Clopf has been hugely disappointing, winning just once in 14 runs. His unplaced run in the Red Mills Hurdle, where he travelled strongly into the race only to find zilch off the bit and finished 16ls behind the winner in fifth, was the final straw for me and he should carry a wealth warning in future. That is run came at a time when his yard was on fire (6 winners and 5 places from 19 runners in the past fortnight) should be the final nail in his coffin. Robbie Hennessy paid 200,000gns for Donegal at the Horses-In-Training Sales but that will be money badly spent if he persists with the 111-rated flat horse over hurdles as he simply can’t jump. His trainer has said in an At The Races interview that his hurdling improved at lot from his Leopardstown debut but I find that very hard to believe and his best chance of future success will be back on the level where he would surely be a match for the second tier of Irish stayers. Not for the first time, Forpadydeplasterer travelled best of all in his race only to find little when push came to shove in the Moriarty. His overall record may be one of consistency but when you look at the horses he’s beaten in victory (the likes of Mick The Man and Cork All Star) you have to ask if he’s going to be a perennial bridesmaid. For me, he looks a weak finisher.
Pointers: The general post-race feeling from the connections of Ebadiyan was that John Cullen hadn’t gone hard enough in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle; certainly he never put any distance of ground between himself and his pursuers and the grey did stay on well in the finish. A look at race times however suggests otherwise – the 8-runner field covered the course over 7 seconds faster than a 16-strong field of experienced handicappers later in the afternoon and that race certainly didn’t appear slowly run as Mission Possible blazed a trail from the front. This suggests that the juveniles put up a serious Triumph Hurdle trial here; most of the talk has been about the strength in depth of the English challenge but it would be unwise to underestimate the Irish contingent on this evidence. The one to take from the race is obvious, the winner Jumbo Rio; his jumping has been impeccable in 2 hurdles starts barring an error at the second last here but the way he came back on the bridle suggested he has plenty of class. Though he had a run of placed efforts on the flat, there was nothing to suggest he was ungenuine (high praise coming from these cynical quarters!) and is in the hands of one of the great Cheltenham trainers in Edward O’Grady. Much of the post race analysis of the aforementioned handicap hurdle concentrated on the nightmare run endured by the eventual third Alexander Severus but his price will surely be tight enough next time after this and he’s shown more than a few signs of temperament in 3 Irish starts already. It may prove more profitable to focus on his age-group as both he and Flag Of Honour were involved in the finish, suggesting that the four-year-olds may not be at all badly treated in handicaps in the coming months. There has certainly been plenty of evidence of this being the case already, with Alexander Severus leading home a trio of juveniles in an open maiden at the last Leopardstown meeting being just one example.
Negatives: Following an early career where he won 6 of his first 8 starts, Clopf has been hugely disappointing, winning just once in 14 runs. His unplaced run in the Red Mills Hurdle, where he travelled strongly into the race only to find zilch off the bit and finished 16ls behind the winner in fifth, was the final straw for me and he should carry a wealth warning in future. That is run came at a time when his yard was on fire (6 winners and 5 places from 19 runners in the past fortnight) should be the final nail in his coffin. Robbie Hennessy paid 200,000gns for Donegal at the Horses-In-Training Sales but that will be money badly spent if he persists with the 111-rated flat horse over hurdles as he simply can’t jump. His trainer has said in an At The Races interview that his hurdling improved at lot from his Leopardstown debut but I find that very hard to believe and his best chance of future success will be back on the level where he would surely be a match for the second tier of Irish stayers. Not for the first time, Forpadydeplasterer travelled best of all in his race only to find little when push came to shove in the Moriarty. His overall record may be one of consistency but when you look at the horses he’s beaten in victory (the likes of Mick The Man and Cork All Star) you have to ask if he’s going to be a perennial bridesmaid. For me, he looks a weak finisher.
Pointers: The general post-race feeling from the connections of Ebadiyan was that John Cullen hadn’t gone hard enough in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle; certainly he never put any distance of ground between himself and his pursuers and the grey did stay on well in the finish. A look at race times however suggests otherwise – the 8-runner field covered the course over 7 seconds faster than a 16-strong field of experienced handicappers later in the afternoon and that race certainly didn’t appear slowly run as Mission Possible blazed a trail from the front. This suggests that the juveniles put up a serious Triumph Hurdle trial here; most of the talk has been about the strength in depth of the English challenge but it would be unwise to underestimate the Irish contingent on this evidence. The one to take from the race is obvious, the winner Jumbo Rio; his jumping has been impeccable in 2 hurdles starts barring an error at the second last here but the way he came back on the bridle suggested he has plenty of class. Though he had a run of placed efforts on the flat, there was nothing to suggest he was ungenuine (high praise coming from these cynical quarters!) and is in the hands of one of the great Cheltenham trainers in Edward O’Grady. Much of the post race analysis of the aforementioned handicap hurdle concentrated on the nightmare run endured by the eventual third Alexander Severus but his price will surely be tight enough next time after this and he’s shown more than a few signs of temperament in 3 Irish starts already. It may prove more profitable to focus on his age-group as both he and Flag Of Honour were involved in the finish, suggesting that the four-year-olds may not be at all badly treated in handicaps in the coming months. There has certainly been plenty of evidence of this being the case already, with Alexander Severus leading home a trio of juveniles in an open maiden at the last Leopardstown meeting being just one example.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Weekend NAP - February 15th
Leopardstown 4.25 - Agus A Vic
Agus A Vic has been just about the best hunter chaser in Ireland in the last two year - his form figures in Irish hunter chases read an impressive:212111B - and he remains open to plenty of improvement. Not without a quirk or two, he rarely wins by much but this certainly helps his price and a tissue price of 100/30 significantly underrates his chance tomorrow. He put up a career best in this race last term and with the ground to suit, a similar performance can be expected.
The appearance of Carronhills in the declarations is something of a boon; he may be a rising star of the Irish hunter scene but the form of his win last time, beating a twicer and a pensioner, is dubious and the presence of Nina Carberry on top will see him sent off at restrictive odds.
Agus A Vic has been just about the best hunter chaser in Ireland in the last two year - his form figures in Irish hunter chases read an impressive:212111B - and he remains open to plenty of improvement. Not without a quirk or two, he rarely wins by much but this certainly helps his price and a tissue price of 100/30 significantly underrates his chance tomorrow. He put up a career best in this race last term and with the ground to suit, a similar performance can be expected.
The appearance of Carronhills in the declarations is something of a boon; he may be a rising star of the Irish hunter scene but the form of his win last time, beating a twicer and a pensioner, is dubious and the presence of Nina Carberry on top will see him sent off at restrictive odds.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Deloitte Novice Hurdle - Leopardstown 8th: The Key Trends
- Six-year-olds have dominated this race with 7 of the last 10 winners as well as 9 of the 13 placed horses.
- This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.
- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks.
- The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.
- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one.
- Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs.
- Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.
- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.
- This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.
- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks.
- The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.
- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one.
- Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs.
- Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.
- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
The Hennessy, Leopardstown February 8th 2009 - The Key Trends
- Official ratings have been a fabulous guide here. 9 of the last 11 winners here were rated at least 160 with one of the exceptions, Beef Or Salmon in 2003, yet to have been given a handicap mark; he had however won the Lexus on his most recent start achieving a Racing Post Rating of 163+.
- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.
- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.
- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.
- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form.
- All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase.
- Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.
- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.
- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.
- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.
- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.
- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.
- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form.
- All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase.
- Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.
- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.
- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.
Weekend NAP - February 1st
Punchestown 3.35 - Never Compromise
Some very trappy stuff at Punchestown today but I'm going to take a chance on the veteran Never Compromise mainly because L'Ami looks a weak favourite. L'Ami has plenty of placed form that says he's a good thing but that's just the point, it's placed form, and he's won only 3 of his 44 rules starts. He's won just once since January 2005 and that in a point-to-point against another twicer and looks well worth opposing at a short price.
Never Compromise has an excellent record over the Punchestown cross-country course (form figures:241313U) and showed that he retains a nice bit of ability when sixth in a competitive handicap chase over an insufficient trip last time. It will be disappointing if he can't hit the frame at least.
In the other races, Beckett Rock may be overpriced in the opener. He ran in a much better Leopardstown maiden than the favourite Sorceror and would have finished closer to Voler La Vedette if ridden more positively.
Big Zeb has a few holes in him and Scotsirish is worth a bet in the race formerly known as the Tied Cottage. You'd prefer to see a front-runner in the field to make a pace but the testing ground should help put the emphasis on stamina.
Some very trappy stuff at Punchestown today but I'm going to take a chance on the veteran Never Compromise mainly because L'Ami looks a weak favourite. L'Ami has plenty of placed form that says he's a good thing but that's just the point, it's placed form, and he's won only 3 of his 44 rules starts. He's won just once since January 2005 and that in a point-to-point against another twicer and looks well worth opposing at a short price.
Never Compromise has an excellent record over the Punchestown cross-country course (form figures:241313U) and showed that he retains a nice bit of ability when sixth in a competitive handicap chase over an insufficient trip last time. It will be disappointing if he can't hit the frame at least.
In the other races, Beckett Rock may be overpriced in the opener. He ran in a much better Leopardstown maiden than the favourite Sorceror and would have finished closer to Voler La Vedette if ridden more positively.
Big Zeb has a few holes in him and Scotsirish is worth a bet in the race formerly known as the Tied Cottage. You'd prefer to see a front-runner in the field to make a pace but the testing ground should help put the emphasis on stamina.
Sunday, January 25, 2009
Meeting Review: Leopardstown, January 25th 2008
Positives: With ground that was already described as heavy taking plenty of rain during course of racing, this meeting is unlikely to provide too many winners in the near future; even the fastest event on the card was over 14 seconds slower than Racing Post standard and most of the participants will have endured hard races here. Ross Accord however remains a well-handicapped horse on the evidence of his fast-finishing second in the 2m6f handicap hurdle and is worth another chance; he was impeded by a faller going out on the second circuit and was given plenty to do by Ruby Walsh. The Tony Martin-trained gelding marked himself down as a horse of some talent and versatility last time when dropping back to the minimum trip to win a competitive novices handicap on decent ground (the form of which is hot) and is unlikely to be hammered for this – he ran off 100 here and such a mark seriously underestimates his ability.
Negatives: Time Electric fell before the race began in earnest in the 2m maiden hurdle but he’s one I want to field against anyway; his overall profile is of a very disappointing animal whose reputation always makes him a shorter price than he should be. The 7yo was the only one the punters wanted here and he was sent off a heavily supported 6/4 favourite despite his last effort having looked fairly poor – though he finished second to Zaarito, it represented negligible improvement on his previous outings and he was readily put in his place by the 2008 Cheltenham Bumper favourite. Time Electric’s followers will have losses to recoup next time so he’s likely to a short price but he’ll be well worth opposing with any sort of creditable opponent. If horses are to be rated on the opponents they beating in their wins then Callherwhatulike must be a pretty poor horse; her 3 immediate victims in her trio of rules wins being Omas Glen, Bill’s Folly and Valley Of Giants. Such worries didn’t stop punters (myself included) sending her off an 11/4 favourite from a morning price of 8/1 in the 2m3f handicap chase but she jumped horribly throughout losing ground at nearly every fence. Barry Geraghty gave her every chance putting her up on the pace but she may have resented being asked to lead and has hinted at attitude on a few occasions in the past – she folded tamely when running in 3 miles graded races at this track last year, can carry her head awkwardly under pressure and has a worrying tendency to finish second. All in all, one to avoid. Sublimity is a serious horse on his day but you’d have to question Robbie Hennessy’s wisdom in running him in the Champion Hurdle and there’s every chance that he’s left whatever chance he had in Cheltenham behind him here. A strong pace was always likely with Colm Murphy employing a pair of rabbits to set it up for the eventual winner Brave Inca and the heavy ground was hardly ideal either while another largely overlooked factor was his lack of freshness – Sublimity is much the better with plenty of time between his races and this was his third run in 7 weeks and that’s not even to mention his abortive trip to England to run in the abandoned Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. He scoped badly post-race and it will take a training performance as good as this bit of placing was bad to reproduce him in peak-form for March. Corskeagh Royale has been really disappointing since finishing runner-up in the Champion Bumper with only a bit of Paul Carberry finesse and a poor ride from Andrew McNamara on Judge Roy Bean allowing him to get a win on board. His tendency to swish his tail under pressure was again in evidence in the 2m4f Grade 2 novice hurdle and his jumping didn’t pass muster either – he looks a hype horse to be avoided. Like a few Arthur Moore horses recently (Fistoulig, Stewarts House), Notable D’Estruval was a laughable price at 9/4 in the 2m6f handicap hurdle as he had a number of questions to answer – chiefly stamina as he looks best at 2m4f (despite his placed finishes in 3m events) but also his aptitude for hurdling as he’d flopped on his 2 previous outings over sticks off marks that his chase rating made appear very lenient. The 8yo might be off interest back over fences at the right trip but makes no appeal over hurdles whatsoever despite what the discrepancy in his ratings might say.
Pointers: One horse that could prove a ‘creditable opponent’ for the aforementioned Time Electric is Puyol as the form of the maiden he was second in at the Christmas meeting received a number of boosts over the weekend. The winner Kempes fairly gagged up at Navan yesterday, the third Roberto Goldback won the Grade 2 novice here while the eighth Chateau D’Eau did likewise in the handicap hurdle. On that form, Puyol looks sure to be breaking his duck soon; having won both a bumper and 2 mile flat race, he may be suited by at least 18f over hurdles but his proven heavy ground form means he’ll be hard to stop whatever the trip. With his form with Made In Taipan looking false, Jayo was probably plenty short enough at 15/8 in the Arkle but even so he should have finished a lot closer to his stable-mate Golden Silver. His jumping, so good on his previous starts, simply went to pieces and I suspect he may hate this track; he was an even money flop at the 2007 Christmas fixture and the Racing Post ‘Key Stat’ in their Arkle preview pointed out that he’d never run with 10lbs of his best on the RPRs in 3 runs at the course. Make that four after this. Brave Inca on the other hand is a horse that just thrives around here – his second win in the Toshiba Champion Hurdle brought his course form figures to:122111231. After failing to make the frame in his first four runs, the 11yo only once failed to make the three in 29 subsequent starts which is an amazing achievement considering he spent most of that career running in Grade 1 events. He’s a true credit to connections. In contrast to Robbie Hennessy, both Sabrina Harty and Noel Meade seem to have pretty shrewd in not running their charges Won In The Dark and Jered in the Champion Hurdle and their inaction could well prove the benefit of sitting on one’s hands before the end of the season. Both horses have been lightly raced with just 2 hurdles starts this season and while the ground on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival may just be too slow for them, they are right at the top of my shortlist for the Grade 1 at Punchestown later on. Both won at the Festival meeting last term and it’s a meeting where previous course form is a strong positive (see Punjabi’s win last term) – their relative freshness will be another thing in their favour.
Negatives: Time Electric fell before the race began in earnest in the 2m maiden hurdle but he’s one I want to field against anyway; his overall profile is of a very disappointing animal whose reputation always makes him a shorter price than he should be. The 7yo was the only one the punters wanted here and he was sent off a heavily supported 6/4 favourite despite his last effort having looked fairly poor – though he finished second to Zaarito, it represented negligible improvement on his previous outings and he was readily put in his place by the 2008 Cheltenham Bumper favourite. Time Electric’s followers will have losses to recoup next time so he’s likely to a short price but he’ll be well worth opposing with any sort of creditable opponent. If horses are to be rated on the opponents they beating in their wins then Callherwhatulike must be a pretty poor horse; her 3 immediate victims in her trio of rules wins being Omas Glen, Bill’s Folly and Valley Of Giants. Such worries didn’t stop punters (myself included) sending her off an 11/4 favourite from a morning price of 8/1 in the 2m3f handicap chase but she jumped horribly throughout losing ground at nearly every fence. Barry Geraghty gave her every chance putting her up on the pace but she may have resented being asked to lead and has hinted at attitude on a few occasions in the past – she folded tamely when running in 3 miles graded races at this track last year, can carry her head awkwardly under pressure and has a worrying tendency to finish second. All in all, one to avoid. Sublimity is a serious horse on his day but you’d have to question Robbie Hennessy’s wisdom in running him in the Champion Hurdle and there’s every chance that he’s left whatever chance he had in Cheltenham behind him here. A strong pace was always likely with Colm Murphy employing a pair of rabbits to set it up for the eventual winner Brave Inca and the heavy ground was hardly ideal either while another largely overlooked factor was his lack of freshness – Sublimity is much the better with plenty of time between his races and this was his third run in 7 weeks and that’s not even to mention his abortive trip to England to run in the abandoned Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. He scoped badly post-race and it will take a training performance as good as this bit of placing was bad to reproduce him in peak-form for March. Corskeagh Royale has been really disappointing since finishing runner-up in the Champion Bumper with only a bit of Paul Carberry finesse and a poor ride from Andrew McNamara on Judge Roy Bean allowing him to get a win on board. His tendency to swish his tail under pressure was again in evidence in the 2m4f Grade 2 novice hurdle and his jumping didn’t pass muster either – he looks a hype horse to be avoided. Like a few Arthur Moore horses recently (Fistoulig, Stewarts House), Notable D’Estruval was a laughable price at 9/4 in the 2m6f handicap hurdle as he had a number of questions to answer – chiefly stamina as he looks best at 2m4f (despite his placed finishes in 3m events) but also his aptitude for hurdling as he’d flopped on his 2 previous outings over sticks off marks that his chase rating made appear very lenient. The 8yo might be off interest back over fences at the right trip but makes no appeal over hurdles whatsoever despite what the discrepancy in his ratings might say.
Pointers: One horse that could prove a ‘creditable opponent’ for the aforementioned Time Electric is Puyol as the form of the maiden he was second in at the Christmas meeting received a number of boosts over the weekend. The winner Kempes fairly gagged up at Navan yesterday, the third Roberto Goldback won the Grade 2 novice here while the eighth Chateau D’Eau did likewise in the handicap hurdle. On that form, Puyol looks sure to be breaking his duck soon; having won both a bumper and 2 mile flat race, he may be suited by at least 18f over hurdles but his proven heavy ground form means he’ll be hard to stop whatever the trip. With his form with Made In Taipan looking false, Jayo was probably plenty short enough at 15/8 in the Arkle but even so he should have finished a lot closer to his stable-mate Golden Silver. His jumping, so good on his previous starts, simply went to pieces and I suspect he may hate this track; he was an even money flop at the 2007 Christmas fixture and the Racing Post ‘Key Stat’ in their Arkle preview pointed out that he’d never run with 10lbs of his best on the RPRs in 3 runs at the course. Make that four after this. Brave Inca on the other hand is a horse that just thrives around here – his second win in the Toshiba Champion Hurdle brought his course form figures to:122111231. After failing to make the frame in his first four runs, the 11yo only once failed to make the three in 29 subsequent starts which is an amazing achievement considering he spent most of that career running in Grade 1 events. He’s a true credit to connections. In contrast to Robbie Hennessy, both Sabrina Harty and Noel Meade seem to have pretty shrewd in not running their charges Won In The Dark and Jered in the Champion Hurdle and their inaction could well prove the benefit of sitting on one’s hands before the end of the season. Both horses have been lightly raced with just 2 hurdles starts this season and while the ground on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival may just be too slow for them, they are right at the top of my shortlist for the Grade 1 at Punchestown later on. Both won at the Festival meeting last term and it’s a meeting where previous course form is a strong positive (see Punjabi’s win last term) – their relative freshness will be another thing in their favour.
Saturday, January 24, 2009
Weekend NAP - January 25th, 2009
Last Week: Qualviro, 2nd at Evens
Year to date: -0.5
Leopardstown 1.50 - Follow The Plan
Having held a level of form through 4 starts this season, Follow The Plan is probably due a bad run but his likely price in the Irish Arkle allows for this and then some; his defeat of Tatenen (who received 11lbs) over today's course and distance was probably the best performance by a novice chaser around 2 miles this season and I was interested to see that Timeform have him well clear of his fellow 2 milers on a mark of 155.
It's thus hard to see why he can be a bigger price than Jayo and Forpadydeplasterer; the former has been impressive in his manner of travelling and jumping but beat a below-par Made In Taipan last time while Tom Cooper's horse looks a little tripless and has had an interrupted preparation having missed his Christmas engagement.
Follow The Plan has everything you'd want in a prospective Arkle horse - he jumps, travels and has plenty of stamina. What he doesn't have is high-profile connections and a lofty hurdles mark but these are factors that just help his price.
Year to date: -0.5
Leopardstown 1.50 - Follow The Plan
Having held a level of form through 4 starts this season, Follow The Plan is probably due a bad run but his likely price in the Irish Arkle allows for this and then some; his defeat of Tatenen (who received 11lbs) over today's course and distance was probably the best performance by a novice chaser around 2 miles this season and I was interested to see that Timeform have him well clear of his fellow 2 milers on a mark of 155.
It's thus hard to see why he can be a bigger price than Jayo and Forpadydeplasterer; the former has been impressive in his manner of travelling and jumping but beat a below-par Made In Taipan last time while Tom Cooper's horse looks a little tripless and has had an interrupted preparation having missed his Christmas engagement.
Follow The Plan has everything you'd want in a prospective Arkle horse - he jumps, travels and has plenty of stamina. What he doesn't have is high-profile connections and a lofty hurdles mark but these are factors that just help his price.
Saturday, January 17, 2009
Weekend NAP - January 17th, 2009
Fairyhouse 1.05 - Qualviro
Season to date: +0.5
With Fixed Fee winning easily at Cork recently, the early signs are that the race won by Voler La Vedette at Leopardstown was pretty hot and I think it may prove the pick of the maiden hurdles run at that venue over Christmas. Qualviro was a good third that day and holds both Across The Bay and Beckett Rock comfortably on that form. The step up in trip is a slight question but a look at his sire, dam's family and siblings suggest it won't be a problem and though he was off the bridle from the second last at Leopardstown, he found plenty off the bridle to pull clear of the fourth.
I can't have it that a 4yo making its hurdle debut over 2m4f on testing ground (Art Sleuth) will be winning this, whatever his connections, and while Sibenek is decent, he'd need to improve markedly on his Fairyhouse run to beat the selection. Qualviro been running against some very decent types like The Last Derby, Zarinava, Alpine Eagle and Smoking Aces lately and, with nothing of that quality in opposition here, should collect.
Of the other Fairyhouse races, I'll take Scotsirish to come home in front a trappy Norman's Grove while Bobbawn has some old hunter chase and point-to-point form that's says he's well-treated in the 3m1f handicap chase. Savitha has more than a few questions to answer on the attitude front after her run at Leopardstown last time but it will be very disappointing if she can't make the three in the opener at Cork.
Season to date: +0.5
With Fixed Fee winning easily at Cork recently, the early signs are that the race won by Voler La Vedette at Leopardstown was pretty hot and I think it may prove the pick of the maiden hurdles run at that venue over Christmas. Qualviro was a good third that day and holds both Across The Bay and Beckett Rock comfortably on that form. The step up in trip is a slight question but a look at his sire, dam's family and siblings suggest it won't be a problem and though he was off the bridle from the second last at Leopardstown, he found plenty off the bridle to pull clear of the fourth.
I can't have it that a 4yo making its hurdle debut over 2m4f on testing ground (Art Sleuth) will be winning this, whatever his connections, and while Sibenek is decent, he'd need to improve markedly on his Fairyhouse run to beat the selection. Qualviro been running against some very decent types like The Last Derby, Zarinava, Alpine Eagle and Smoking Aces lately and, with nothing of that quality in opposition here, should collect.
Of the other Fairyhouse races, I'll take Scotsirish to come home in front a trappy Norman's Grove while Bobbawn has some old hunter chase and point-to-point form that's says he's well-treated in the 3m1f handicap chase. Savitha has more than a few questions to answer on the attitude front after her run at Leopardstown last time but it will be very disappointing if she can't make the three in the opener at Cork.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
Ellen Construction Thyestes Chase, Gowran Park, January 22nd - The Key Trends
- A weight trend is dominant here; no winner since 2000 has carried more than 10-11 to victory before jockeys’ claims were taken into account. In the same timeframe, no horse with more than 10-13 made the first three.
- Official ratings are available for this race since 1997 and no horse has won off a mark higher than 133.
- Track specialist Bob Treacy won this as a 12yo in 2001 but the general tendency since the millennium has been towards the younger horses; seven-, eight- and nine-year-olds have won every other renewal since 2000. 8yos lead the way with 4 of the last 9 winners as well as 7 placed horses in the same period.
- A recent run is a must – all of the last 10 winners had run in the previous month. Where they finished seems not so important with one winning, three placing, three finishing unplaced, two being pulled up and another falling.
- As so often, respect unexposed horses: 9 of the last 11 winners had no more than 5 outings in handicap chases.
- In a similar pattern, concentrate on novices and second-season chasers. 9 of the last 11 winners were in their first or second season over fences with one of the exceptions being Dun Doire who was a third-season chaser in name only.
- Preists Leap looked suspiciously like a freak winner as a 20/1 shot last term; certainly he had nothing like the proven stamina of the previous winners. With the 10 winners prior to him all having won over at least 3 miles (7 had won over further), we can reasonably expect staying power to come to the fore again.
- Only Willie Mullins has won this race more than once in recent times with 3 winners since 2000. He’s also had a pair of runners-up and a third and given his current form it would be no surprise to see his runners involved again.
- Course form around Gowran Park should not be underestimated – 7 of the last 10 winners had made the frame at the track already.
- Official ratings are available for this race since 1997 and no horse has won off a mark higher than 133.
- Track specialist Bob Treacy won this as a 12yo in 2001 but the general tendency since the millennium has been towards the younger horses; seven-, eight- and nine-year-olds have won every other renewal since 2000. 8yos lead the way with 4 of the last 9 winners as well as 7 placed horses in the same period.
- A recent run is a must – all of the last 10 winners had run in the previous month. Where they finished seems not so important with one winning, three placing, three finishing unplaced, two being pulled up and another falling.
- As so often, respect unexposed horses: 9 of the last 11 winners had no more than 5 outings in handicap chases.
- In a similar pattern, concentrate on novices and second-season chasers. 9 of the last 11 winners were in their first or second season over fences with one of the exceptions being Dun Doire who was a third-season chaser in name only.
- Preists Leap looked suspiciously like a freak winner as a 20/1 shot last term; certainly he had nothing like the proven stamina of the previous winners. With the 10 winners prior to him all having won over at least 3 miles (7 had won over further), we can reasonably expect staying power to come to the fore again.
- Only Willie Mullins has won this race more than once in recent times with 3 winners since 2000. He’s also had a pair of runners-up and a third and given his current form it would be no surprise to see his runners involved again.
- Course form around Gowran Park should not be underestimated – 7 of the last 10 winners had made the frame at the track already.
Sunday, January 11, 2009
Meeting Review: Leopardstown, January 11th
Positives: Coscorrig is a mare that just has a really nice way of doing things, jumping boldly from the front and daring those in behind to keep with her. In the end she probably set the 2m1f beginners chase up for the strong staying Majestic Concorde who was a 2-miler on the flat. The 6yo has only one way of running (choke-out!) but it’s a matter of time before one of these maiden chase falls her way and she always offers the option of getting out in-running. A return to the bare 2m and faster ground would be an advantage.
Negatives: While his chase debut second to Made In Taipan was encouraging, Jaamid just hasn’t gone on in 4 starts since and is becoming a professional loser. He’s won just once since April 2007 and has a disappointing overall strike-rate of 4 wins from 34 starts; the 7yo looks short of any sort of speed in a finish. Neither of Tony Martin’s runners in the Pierse Hurdle makes much appeal as horses to follow, albeit for different reasons. Robin Du Bois is simply over-rated; little he’s done recently suggests he can win off a mark of a mark of 118 and is best left alone despite the public perception that he’s a well-handicapped horse. Psycho was, and possibly still is, a well-treated horse but reassessment after his narrow defeat in the Pierse is likely to see him upped to a rating well into the 130s (his last winning mark was 99) and he will racing off a mark significantly higher in England where he is likely to be seen in the coming months. There was little doubt that he offered value at around 7/1 in the morning here but he’s been an unlucky horse in 3 of his last 4 starts and the bookies love nothing more – the 8yo will be priced up accordingly in his next few starts.
Pointers: Financial Reward brought the best recent form to the table in the Grade 2 novice chase having won a stronger event at the same level last time and on the face of things his effort in finishing fourth was below-par. However, there’s every chance that Willie Mullins’ runner was inconvenienced by racing this way around – his form figures on left-handed tracks over jumps now read:42826034 – while his right-handed figures are an altogether better:12132290141. I wouldn’t have backed Schindlers Hunt with bad money in the reduced trip Leopardstown Chase (definitely an improvement, there are more than enough staying handicaps chases and a dearth of classy events over shorter) but he proved Paddy Flood’s assessment that he needed a step up in trip totally correct. This win brought his Leopardstown figures to an impressive:23111351 and the Foxrock venue seems to bring him to life without fail. I wouldn’t quibble with anyone’s assessment of Badgerlaw as a dodge; his lifetime record of 3 wins from 22 starts confirms as much. However, he is a horse that likes decent ground and this third in the Pertemps Qualifier brought his record on ground faster than yielding to soft to:2222112242PF3. A winner is yet to emerge from the novice handicap hurdle won by Ross Accord at the Christmas meeting here but I still suspect the form is strong; the third, fifth and seventh have all gone very close since, finding only in-form rivals Sky Captain and Mission Possible too good. The winner is of obvious interest but his connections mean he’s never going to be a big price – a better representative of the form may prove to be Pistol Flash. John Mulhern’s mare impressed on her first run for a year and has enough form from 2007 to say that a mark of 102 will allow her to win races. The 4yo bumper provided a boil-over with Tornedo Shay winning but I wouldn’t yet give up on Ragtime, a well-fancied contender from the Eddie Hales yard. His trainer holds an excellent record in his race (his runners have figures of:218011 since 2000) and Enquiring Mind was one that bounced back from a poor run in this event to beat De Valira on his next start. I’m sure the ideal scenario for Hales was the horse would win and be sold to England at an expensive price but there’s every chance he didn’t act on the rain-softened ground – 3 of his 4 siblings wanted it on top.
Negatives: While his chase debut second to Made In Taipan was encouraging, Jaamid just hasn’t gone on in 4 starts since and is becoming a professional loser. He’s won just once since April 2007 and has a disappointing overall strike-rate of 4 wins from 34 starts; the 7yo looks short of any sort of speed in a finish. Neither of Tony Martin’s runners in the Pierse Hurdle makes much appeal as horses to follow, albeit for different reasons. Robin Du Bois is simply over-rated; little he’s done recently suggests he can win off a mark of a mark of 118 and is best left alone despite the public perception that he’s a well-handicapped horse. Psycho was, and possibly still is, a well-treated horse but reassessment after his narrow defeat in the Pierse is likely to see him upped to a rating well into the 130s (his last winning mark was 99) and he will racing off a mark significantly higher in England where he is likely to be seen in the coming months. There was little doubt that he offered value at around 7/1 in the morning here but he’s been an unlucky horse in 3 of his last 4 starts and the bookies love nothing more – the 8yo will be priced up accordingly in his next few starts.
Pointers: Financial Reward brought the best recent form to the table in the Grade 2 novice chase having won a stronger event at the same level last time and on the face of things his effort in finishing fourth was below-par. However, there’s every chance that Willie Mullins’ runner was inconvenienced by racing this way around – his form figures on left-handed tracks over jumps now read:42826034 – while his right-handed figures are an altogether better:12132290141. I wouldn’t have backed Schindlers Hunt with bad money in the reduced trip Leopardstown Chase (definitely an improvement, there are more than enough staying handicaps chases and a dearth of classy events over shorter) but he proved Paddy Flood’s assessment that he needed a step up in trip totally correct. This win brought his Leopardstown figures to an impressive:23111351 and the Foxrock venue seems to bring him to life without fail. I wouldn’t quibble with anyone’s assessment of Badgerlaw as a dodge; his lifetime record of 3 wins from 22 starts confirms as much. However, he is a horse that likes decent ground and this third in the Pertemps Qualifier brought his record on ground faster than yielding to soft to:2222112242PF3. A winner is yet to emerge from the novice handicap hurdle won by Ross Accord at the Christmas meeting here but I still suspect the form is strong; the third, fifth and seventh have all gone very close since, finding only in-form rivals Sky Captain and Mission Possible too good. The winner is of obvious interest but his connections mean he’s never going to be a big price – a better representative of the form may prove to be Pistol Flash. John Mulhern’s mare impressed on her first run for a year and has enough form from 2007 to say that a mark of 102 will allow her to win races. The 4yo bumper provided a boil-over with Tornedo Shay winning but I wouldn’t yet give up on Ragtime, a well-fancied contender from the Eddie Hales yard. His trainer holds an excellent record in his race (his runners have figures of:218011 since 2000) and Enquiring Mind was one that bounced back from a poor run in this event to beat De Valira on his next start. I’m sure the ideal scenario for Hales was the horse would win and be sold to England at an expensive price but there’s every chance he didn’t act on the rain-softened ground – 3 of his 4 siblings wanted it on top.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Weekend NAP - January 11th, 2009
Leopardstown 1.45 - Finger Onthe Pulse
Season to date: +1.5
Last Weekend: Jayo, WON @6/4
Finger Onthe Pulse is the definition of a trend horse, his form figures on left-handed tracks reading:1213111U21. The only horses to have beaten him on anti-clockwise tracks are Grade 1 winners Iktitaf, Nicanor and Glencove Marina and he will certainly enjoy this return to handicap company, not that his run in a Grade 3 last time was too shabby - he finished second to subsequent John Durkan winner Noland with the Troytown and Welsh National hero Notre Pere back in fourth.
However, it's the form of his Jewson win at last year's Cheltenham Festival that really supports his chance here; the horses to chase him home, Barbers Shop and Possol, are now rated 159 and 143 respectively, suggesting he's well-handicapped off 144. The lack of a recent run is of little concern as his form figures after a break of 2 months or more read:1F110U311 and with mark and conditions all in his favour, a big run is expected. The unexposed Kilcrea Castle may prove his biggest danger but his overall form suggests he should be getting more than 5lbs from the favourite.
The featured Pierse Hurdle is typically difficult with my shortlist comprising the trio of Psycho, Fen Game and Alpine Eagle. I suspect Psycho remains a well-handicapped horse and a repeat of his effort when falling here on Hennessy Day or his County Hurdle second should be good enough, while Fen Game is officially 6lbs well-in and can reverse form with Imperial Hills. Alpine Eagle goes against my trends-based approach but his trainer does well here with few runners (since 1996, she's had 2 winners, a second and a fifth from 8 runners) and the 5yo looks well-treated if over his Limerick exertions.
Finally, Coscorrig is of significant interest in the first. In a field made up of chase debutantes and disappointing types like Jaamid, she has as good a form as any. Her Naas run when third to Made In Taipan was excellent and can be upgraded on the basis that she tried to make all; this easier track and faster ground should suit and she can make a bold bid from the front. Tissue prices of around 7/1 seriously underestimate her chance.
Season to date: +1.5
Last Weekend: Jayo, WON @6/4
Finger Onthe Pulse is the definition of a trend horse, his form figures on left-handed tracks reading:1213111U21. The only horses to have beaten him on anti-clockwise tracks are Grade 1 winners Iktitaf, Nicanor and Glencove Marina and he will certainly enjoy this return to handicap company, not that his run in a Grade 3 last time was too shabby - he finished second to subsequent John Durkan winner Noland with the Troytown and Welsh National hero Notre Pere back in fourth.
However, it's the form of his Jewson win at last year's Cheltenham Festival that really supports his chance here; the horses to chase him home, Barbers Shop and Possol, are now rated 159 and 143 respectively, suggesting he's well-handicapped off 144. The lack of a recent run is of little concern as his form figures after a break of 2 months or more read:1F110U311 and with mark and conditions all in his favour, a big run is expected. The unexposed Kilcrea Castle may prove his biggest danger but his overall form suggests he should be getting more than 5lbs from the favourite.
The featured Pierse Hurdle is typically difficult with my shortlist comprising the trio of Psycho, Fen Game and Alpine Eagle. I suspect Psycho remains a well-handicapped horse and a repeat of his effort when falling here on Hennessy Day or his County Hurdle second should be good enough, while Fen Game is officially 6lbs well-in and can reverse form with Imperial Hills. Alpine Eagle goes against my trends-based approach but his trainer does well here with few runners (since 1996, she's had 2 winners, a second and a fifth from 8 runners) and the 5yo looks well-treated if over his Limerick exertions.
Finally, Coscorrig is of significant interest in the first. In a field made up of chase debutantes and disappointing types like Jaamid, she has as good a form as any. Her Naas run when third to Made In Taipan was excellent and can be upgraded on the basis that she tried to make all; this easier track and faster ground should suit and she can make a bold bid from the front. Tissue prices of around 7/1 seriously underestimate her chance.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Leopardstown Chase - Leopardstown, January 11th: The Key Trends
- The ground has been no faster than yielding-soft in the past 10 years.
- Arthur Moore is a trainer to note. He has saddled 2 winners and 4 placed horse in the past decade including the second and third last year.
- Unlike many of the top staying handicaps, weight seems not to matter and there is no reason why lightly-weighted contenders should be given preference. The top-weight has won the last 2 renewals while winners in the preceding 8 years carried 12-0, 11-11 and 11-1 to victory.
- 7 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 134 and 144.
- 9yos are the dominant age-group with 6 winners and 5 runners-up since 1999. Horses in double figures can and do win this as What A Native (10yo) and Buck Rogers (11yo) have shown but both were very lightly raced for their age having had just 9 and 10 chase starts respectively and as a rule I’d be against very exposed horses.
- The market was a fine guide between 1999 and 2006 with every winner returned at 7/1 or shorter but its efficiency hasn’t been great lately with 14/1 shots winning the last 2 runnings.
- Concentrate on in-form horses; 8 of the last 9 winners had finished in the first four on their last completed start.
- Of the big winter handicaps, the Troytown has been a much better guide than the Paddy Power. Half of the winners in the last decade ran in the Navan race, finishing:11423, while only two had run in the December 27th event, one being brought down and the other finishing eleventh. No surprise there as the Leopardstown Chase and Troytown share much in common being classy affairs contested by much smaller fields (only one field of more than 15 since 1999) than the Paddy Power which is more of a lottery. And yes, I’ve never backed the winner of it!
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 6 weeks.
- Focus on unexposed horses. Of the last 10 winners, only Cloudy Bays (a Charles Byrnes special) had more than 9 starts in handicap chases.
- In the same vein, second- and third-season chasers dominate. The aforementioned What A Native and Buck Rogers may have had their chase runs spread out due to injuries but they were second- and third-season chasers in all but name like the all the other recent winners.
- Proven stamina isn’t a pre-requisite for success as 3 of the recent winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had previously won over at least 2m5f though.
- Arthur Moore is a trainer to note. He has saddled 2 winners and 4 placed horse in the past decade including the second and third last year.
- Unlike many of the top staying handicaps, weight seems not to matter and there is no reason why lightly-weighted contenders should be given preference. The top-weight has won the last 2 renewals while winners in the preceding 8 years carried 12-0, 11-11 and 11-1 to victory.
- 7 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 134 and 144.
- 9yos are the dominant age-group with 6 winners and 5 runners-up since 1999. Horses in double figures can and do win this as What A Native (10yo) and Buck Rogers (11yo) have shown but both were very lightly raced for their age having had just 9 and 10 chase starts respectively and as a rule I’d be against very exposed horses.
- The market was a fine guide between 1999 and 2006 with every winner returned at 7/1 or shorter but its efficiency hasn’t been great lately with 14/1 shots winning the last 2 runnings.
- Concentrate on in-form horses; 8 of the last 9 winners had finished in the first four on their last completed start.
- Of the big winter handicaps, the Troytown has been a much better guide than the Paddy Power. Half of the winners in the last decade ran in the Navan race, finishing:11423, while only two had run in the December 27th event, one being brought down and the other finishing eleventh. No surprise there as the Leopardstown Chase and Troytown share much in common being classy affairs contested by much smaller fields (only one field of more than 15 since 1999) than the Paddy Power which is more of a lottery. And yes, I’ve never backed the winner of it!
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 6 weeks.
- Focus on unexposed horses. Of the last 10 winners, only Cloudy Bays (a Charles Byrnes special) had more than 9 starts in handicap chases.
- In the same vein, second- and third-season chasers dominate. The aforementioned What A Native and Buck Rogers may have had their chase runs spread out due to injuries but they were second- and third-season chasers in all but name like the all the other recent winners.
- Proven stamina isn’t a pre-requisite for success as 3 of the recent winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had previously won over at least 2m5f though.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
Weekend NAP - January 4th
Last Week: Realt Dubh, won @ 9/10
2008: + 17.9
A pleasing ending to the 2008 NAP series, when despite Paul Carberry's best efforts to get it beat, Realt Dubh picked up well in the straight and collared the front-running Sorceror close home.
Overall, the year was a success with 16 of the 43 tips winning for a level-stakes profit of almost 18 points. My highlights were the dual winner Almass and Catch Me as well as Well Tutored and Won In The Dark. So onwards and upwards to 2009...
Naas 1.15 - Jayo
I can't have it that Made In Taipan will be in peak form here; his Leopardstown run was below-par and he should have finished a lot closer to Follow The Plan who he beat last time out (albeit in receipt of weight) while his jumping was lacklustre throughout. His trainer has a tendency to place his horses in what could be politely termed 'strange' ways and and this one looks to be suffering the effects of a number of hard races recently - this will be his sixth outing in less than 3 months.
Jayo wasn't too far behind Made In Taipan over hurdles(rated 137 as opposed to the favourite's 145) but more importantly, and unlike his main rival, he arrives here on an upward curve. His travelled all over some good horses last time and the form of his 2 previous runs has worked out - Good Fella, Top Of The Rock, Lochan Lacha and Askthemaster have all run well since. He gets a handy 4lbs allowance from the top and his yard are in infinitely better form than Made In Taipan's.
The others are out-classed with the possible exception of Chiraaz who surely needs further to show his best.
2008: + 17.9
A pleasing ending to the 2008 NAP series, when despite Paul Carberry's best efforts to get it beat, Realt Dubh picked up well in the straight and collared the front-running Sorceror close home.
Overall, the year was a success with 16 of the 43 tips winning for a level-stakes profit of almost 18 points. My highlights were the dual winner Almass and Catch Me as well as Well Tutored and Won In The Dark. So onwards and upwards to 2009...
Naas 1.15 - Jayo
I can't have it that Made In Taipan will be in peak form here; his Leopardstown run was below-par and he should have finished a lot closer to Follow The Plan who he beat last time out (albeit in receipt of weight) while his jumping was lacklustre throughout. His trainer has a tendency to place his horses in what could be politely termed 'strange' ways and and this one looks to be suffering the effects of a number of hard races recently - this will be his sixth outing in less than 3 months.
Jayo wasn't too far behind Made In Taipan over hurdles(rated 137 as opposed to the favourite's 145) but more importantly, and unlike his main rival, he arrives here on an upward curve. His travelled all over some good horses last time and the form of his 2 previous runs has worked out - Good Fella, Top Of The Rock, Lochan Lacha and Askthemaster have all run well since. He gets a handy 4lbs allowance from the top and his yard are in infinitely better form than Made In Taipan's.
The others are out-classed with the possible exception of Chiraaz who surely needs further to show his best.
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