- The last 10 renewals have been run on ground no faster than yielding/soft ground. However, the going on the hurdle tracks on the final day of the Christmas Meeting was described as yielding and it would be no surprise if we have a decent surface for the first time in a while.
- Just 1 winner of the last 13 years carried more than 11-1 to victory. 11 of the last 13 winners carried 10-11 or less before jockeys’ claims.
- No winner has been rated higher than 127 since 1996.
- 6 of the last 7 winners were rated between 114 and 119. The entries falling into that rating bracket this year are: Lazio, Mourne Rambler, Siege Of Ennis, Tiger Cry, Carthalawn, Pom Flyer, Robin Du Bois, Sanglote, Alpine Eagle, Maralan, Sophocles, Fen Game and Mullach Na Si.
- Only one 5yo has won since 1997. All the other winners in the last 12 years were either six (5 winners), seven (4 winners) or eight (2 winners).
- Give preference to in-form horses – 10 of the last 13 victors had finished first or second last time out including all of the last five.
- Try to strike the balance between a horse that is race-fit yet hasn’t been over-raced in the run-up to the Pierse. All bar 1 of the last 13 winners had run in the last 50 days but none had more than 4 runs since the beginning of October.
- Unexposed contenders dominate; none of the winners since 1997 had run more than 9 times over hurdles. By the same token, none had more than 6 runs in handicaps.
- Avoid handicap debutantes; only 1 of the last 13 winners was having its first run in a handicap. On The Way Out, Alpine Eagle, Vital Plot and Fisher Bridge are high-profile contenders who may have their first handicap run here.
- Look to speed horses – just 1 of the last 13 winners had won beyond 17f before landing this valuable prize.
Tuesday, December 30, 2008
Saturday, December 27, 2008
Sunday, December 21, 2008
Leopardstown Christmas Festival - A Statistical Analysis, 2001 - 2007
Punters’ Percentages
Criteria
• Handicap winners that had a prep run - 96%
• Open Graded winners aged 8 or younger - 87%
• Graded winners that finished first, second or third last time - 81%
• Maiden Hurdle winners sent off 9/2 or shorter - 76%
• Grade 1 Novice Chase winners aged 6 - 71%
• Edward O’Grady-trained runners placed in graded novices - 54%
• Meade & Mullins-trained horses placed in maiden hurdles - 44%
• Dessie Hughes-trained horses first or second in graded races - 43%
• Graded winners without a run since October - 3%
• Handicap winners older than 8 - 2%
Graded Races
With 9 black type races over the 4 days, Leopardstown provides extensive opportunities for top-class horses in both the novice and open categories. The key here is to focus on the younger horses; in the past 7 years just graded winner was aged in double figures and that was Istabraq in the 2001 Festival Hurdle. The three-time Champion Hurdle made heavy weather of landing odds of 4/11 by a head on that occasion and when we consider the only horses to win graded races as 9yos were also superstars called Moscow Flyer, Beef Or Salmon and Limestone (all returned odds-on), it seems sensible to focus on the 8yos and younger who have won 27 of the 31 open graded races run since 2001. Such figures would be a negative against the likes of The Listener and War Of Attrition (both 9yos) in the Lexus and Brave Inca in the Festival Hurdle, though it should noted that Colm Murphy’s veteran has a superlative record at the course.
A recent run is also pretty much a necessity with only Istabraq and Rosaker managing to win a graded event without having had a run since October; 57 of the 59 graded winners (novices and open) had an outing of some sort in the previous three months. There are certainly no Istabraqs among the entries for this year’s big events and Neptune Collonges, the likely favourite for the Lexus, could have plenty on his plate on what will be his first run since Punchestown. Big Zeb, who looks sure to be among the market leaders in the Dial-A-Bet Chase, returns off a similar absence.
Dessie Hughes is a force to be reckoned with in all graded races – since 2001, 10 of his 23 runners have finished first or second with the likes of Central House and Grangeclare Lark serving him well. Among the novices, Edward O’Grady is a name to note with his 13 runners yielding 3 winners, 3 seconds and a third.
In the two Grade 1 novice chases, the Durkan New Homes over two miles and the Knight Frank over three, it’s paid to concentrate on six-year-olds. They’ve won 10 of the last 14 runnings of both races and all but one since 2003. 6yos of note for this year’s races include staying types Cooldine and Trafford Lad and the speedier Made In Taipan (a winner at the meeting last year) and Forpadydeplasterer.
Keep an eye on the placed horses from the Royal Bond if they take their chance in the recently upgraded Future Champions Novice Hurdle on the 27th – 4 of the last 7 winners finished placed in the Fairyhouse event earlier in the month. This year’s renewal of the Fairyhouse race was run at a very slow pace and it would be no surprise to see Donnas Palm, a national hunt type who was particularly inconvenienced by how the race was run, reverse form with the winner Hurricane Fly.
Maiden Hurdles
Thinking outside the box is crucial to backing winners but it’s not always wise to be too clever and maiden hurdles at Leopardstown are a case in point; recently, finding the winner has been an object lesson in sticking to the obvious. All 5 of last year’s maiden hurdle winners were sent off at the head of the market and none had finished worse than third on their last outing. This may well be an extreme example but past trends also illustrate the benefits of sticking with in-form, fancied runners.
Of the 34 maiden hurdles run at the Christmas meeting since 2001, only 1 winner was returned at bigger than 10/1 and 26 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter. 23 of the 34 winners had finished in the first four over hurdles last time out. Given the size and competitive nature of the fields, it is sensible to give classy bumper graduates making their hurdles debut the swerve – they almost always lack the seasoning for races like this and only 1 of the 24 fancied (i.e. sent off at single figure prices) bumper horses debuting over hurdles since 2001 managed to win. Avoiding horses that were given what are politely termed ‘educational rides’ last time is another good idea as such ‘eye-catchers’ are invariably over-bet and don’t have the form to back it up.
In the trainers’ corner, it’s no surprise that Noel Meade (5 wins and 6 places from 25 runners) and Willie Mullins (3 wins and 5 places from 18 runners) do well. Realt Dubh [WON 9/10 - Leopardstown, 27/12] looks a likely type from the Meade yard this time around – he caught a tartar in subsequent Grade 1 winner Mikael D’Haguenet on his hurdles bow and is suitably obvious here. Zaarito, placed in the Champion Bumper in March, could well follow in the footsteps of a similar type in Sophocles who went one better than his second place on debut when landing a maiden at last year’s meeting.
Handicaps
With just 7 handicaps due to be run over the 4 days, it could be said that such races take a back seat at the meeting though each and every race of this type is fiercely contested. The same basic tenets used for graded races apply here: concentrate on younger horses that have the benefit of a recent outing. Of the 47 handicaps run at the Festival since 2001, just one was won by a horse older than 8. It’s a similar story with regard to a having a prep run – only Mansony, a subsequent dual Grade 1 winner who had upwards of 20lbs in hand, could land a handicap on his seasonal reappearance.
Punters looking for a single handicap with strong back patterns could do a lot worse than focus on the 2m1f handicap chase on St. Stephen’s Day. All of the last 7 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter, were aged between 6 and 8 and had finished first or second if they got around last time out.
Criteria
• Handicap winners that had a prep run - 96%
• Open Graded winners aged 8 or younger - 87%
• Graded winners that finished first, second or third last time - 81%
• Maiden Hurdle winners sent off 9/2 or shorter - 76%
• Grade 1 Novice Chase winners aged 6 - 71%
• Edward O’Grady-trained runners placed in graded novices - 54%
• Meade & Mullins-trained horses placed in maiden hurdles - 44%
• Dessie Hughes-trained horses first or second in graded races - 43%
• Graded winners without a run since October - 3%
• Handicap winners older than 8 - 2%
Graded Races
With 9 black type races over the 4 days, Leopardstown provides extensive opportunities for top-class horses in both the novice and open categories. The key here is to focus on the younger horses; in the past 7 years just graded winner was aged in double figures and that was Istabraq in the 2001 Festival Hurdle. The three-time Champion Hurdle made heavy weather of landing odds of 4/11 by a head on that occasion and when we consider the only horses to win graded races as 9yos were also superstars called Moscow Flyer, Beef Or Salmon and Limestone (all returned odds-on), it seems sensible to focus on the 8yos and younger who have won 27 of the 31 open graded races run since 2001. Such figures would be a negative against the likes of The Listener and War Of Attrition (both 9yos) in the Lexus and Brave Inca in the Festival Hurdle, though it should noted that Colm Murphy’s veteran has a superlative record at the course.
A recent run is also pretty much a necessity with only Istabraq and Rosaker managing to win a graded event without having had a run since October; 57 of the 59 graded winners (novices and open) had an outing of some sort in the previous three months. There are certainly no Istabraqs among the entries for this year’s big events and Neptune Collonges, the likely favourite for the Lexus, could have plenty on his plate on what will be his first run since Punchestown. Big Zeb, who looks sure to be among the market leaders in the Dial-A-Bet Chase, returns off a similar absence.
Dessie Hughes is a force to be reckoned with in all graded races – since 2001, 10 of his 23 runners have finished first or second with the likes of Central House and Grangeclare Lark serving him well. Among the novices, Edward O’Grady is a name to note with his 13 runners yielding 3 winners, 3 seconds and a third.
In the two Grade 1 novice chases, the Durkan New Homes over two miles and the Knight Frank over three, it’s paid to concentrate on six-year-olds. They’ve won 10 of the last 14 runnings of both races and all but one since 2003. 6yos of note for this year’s races include staying types Cooldine and Trafford Lad and the speedier Made In Taipan (a winner at the meeting last year) and Forpadydeplasterer.
Keep an eye on the placed horses from the Royal Bond if they take their chance in the recently upgraded Future Champions Novice Hurdle on the 27th – 4 of the last 7 winners finished placed in the Fairyhouse event earlier in the month. This year’s renewal of the Fairyhouse race was run at a very slow pace and it would be no surprise to see Donnas Palm, a national hunt type who was particularly inconvenienced by how the race was run, reverse form with the winner Hurricane Fly.
Maiden Hurdles
Thinking outside the box is crucial to backing winners but it’s not always wise to be too clever and maiden hurdles at Leopardstown are a case in point; recently, finding the winner has been an object lesson in sticking to the obvious. All 5 of last year’s maiden hurdle winners were sent off at the head of the market and none had finished worse than third on their last outing. This may well be an extreme example but past trends also illustrate the benefits of sticking with in-form, fancied runners.
Of the 34 maiden hurdles run at the Christmas meeting since 2001, only 1 winner was returned at bigger than 10/1 and 26 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter. 23 of the 34 winners had finished in the first four over hurdles last time out. Given the size and competitive nature of the fields, it is sensible to give classy bumper graduates making their hurdles debut the swerve – they almost always lack the seasoning for races like this and only 1 of the 24 fancied (i.e. sent off at single figure prices) bumper horses debuting over hurdles since 2001 managed to win. Avoiding horses that were given what are politely termed ‘educational rides’ last time is another good idea as such ‘eye-catchers’ are invariably over-bet and don’t have the form to back it up.
In the trainers’ corner, it’s no surprise that Noel Meade (5 wins and 6 places from 25 runners) and Willie Mullins (3 wins and 5 places from 18 runners) do well. Realt Dubh [WON 9/10 - Leopardstown, 27/12] looks a likely type from the Meade yard this time around – he caught a tartar in subsequent Grade 1 winner Mikael D’Haguenet on his hurdles bow and is suitably obvious here. Zaarito, placed in the Champion Bumper in March, could well follow in the footsteps of a similar type in Sophocles who went one better than his second place on debut when landing a maiden at last year’s meeting.
Handicaps
With just 7 handicaps due to be run over the 4 days, it could be said that such races take a back seat at the meeting though each and every race of this type is fiercely contested. The same basic tenets used for graded races apply here: concentrate on younger horses that have the benefit of a recent outing. Of the 47 handicaps run at the Festival since 2001, just one was won by a horse older than 8. It’s a similar story with regard to a having a prep run – only Mansony, a subsequent dual Grade 1 winner who had upwards of 20lbs in hand, could land a handicap on his seasonal reappearance.
Punters looking for a single handicap with strong back patterns could do a lot worse than focus on the 2m1f handicap chase on St. Stephen’s Day. All of the last 7 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter, were aged between 6 and 8 and had finished first or second if they got around last time out.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Saturday, December 6, 2008
Weekend NAP - December 7th 2008
Punchestown 1.05 - The Last Derby
Last Week: Catch Me, Won @ 7/4
Season to date: + 19
Last Week: Catch Me, Won @ 7/4
Season to date: + 19
Monday, December 1, 2008
Paddy Power Handicap Chase, Leopardstown December 27th – The Key Trends
- Cane Brake won the 2006 renewal off 11-3 (Adrian Joyce claimed 7lbs) but his weight-carrying performance was more the exception than the rule; 8 of the last 9 winners carried no more than 10-8 before jockeys’ claims.
- All winners since 1998 were aged between 6 and 8 – 2 were 6yos while the 7yos and 8yos won four apiece.
- Only 1 horse rated higher than 123 has won this in the past 10 years.
- Newbay Prop was a rare out-of-form winner of the race last term when landing the spoils off the back being pulled up in the Porterstown; his trainer Tony Martin has his own unique methods and all of the other 9 winners in the past decade finished no worse than 5th on their last start. 7 of those 9 finished first, second or third.
- The Troytown would seem the obvious place to start in the search for the winner of this race but Navan provides a much sterner test of stamina than this speed-favouring track – just 1 of the last 10 winners ran in the Troytown that season though 8 placed horses ran in the Navan event. The Cork National has been a better guide to winners at least with 3 of the last 7 Irish-trained winners hitting the frame at Cork before winning here.
- All of the winners in the last decade had run at least once since October.
- Unexposed horses rule here – the last 11 winners all had 7 or fewer runs in handicap chases.
- None of the winners since 1998 had more than 3 seasons chasing experience.
- 4 winners since 1998 had already won at the track while 2 more had placed form at Leopardstown.
- Stamina isn’t as important as one might think as 4 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had won over at least 2m5f though.
- All winners since 1998 were aged between 6 and 8 – 2 were 6yos while the 7yos and 8yos won four apiece.
- Only 1 horse rated higher than 123 has won this in the past 10 years.
- Newbay Prop was a rare out-of-form winner of the race last term when landing the spoils off the back being pulled up in the Porterstown; his trainer Tony Martin has his own unique methods and all of the other 9 winners in the past decade finished no worse than 5th on their last start. 7 of those 9 finished first, second or third.
- The Troytown would seem the obvious place to start in the search for the winner of this race but Navan provides a much sterner test of stamina than this speed-favouring track – just 1 of the last 10 winners ran in the Troytown that season though 8 placed horses ran in the Navan event. The Cork National has been a better guide to winners at least with 3 of the last 7 Irish-trained winners hitting the frame at Cork before winning here.
- All of the winners in the last decade had run at least once since October.
- Unexposed horses rule here – the last 11 winners all had 7 or fewer runs in handicap chases.
- None of the winners since 1998 had more than 3 seasons chasing experience.
- 4 winners since 1998 had already won at the track while 2 more had placed form at Leopardstown.
- Stamina isn’t as important as one might think as 4 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had won over at least 2m5f though.
Sunday, November 30, 2008
John Durkan Memorial Chase, Punchestown December 7th - The Key Trends
- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 9.
- All but 1 of the last 10 winners was rated 150 or higher prior to winning this.
- Buck Rogers caused a shock (and busted more than a few trends) when landing this at 16/1 in 1999 but none of the other winners since 1998 was returned any bigger than 7/1. 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 2/1 or shorter.
- Every winner since 1998 had run in the previous 5 weeks.
- The last 8 winners had run either once or twice in the current season.
- While 2 of the recent winners failed to complete on their most recent outing, the other 8 all finished in the first three last time out.
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Punchestown.
- All of the winners in the last decades had won a race over this intermediate trip, i.e. between 19 and 21 furlongs. 8 were multiple winners over this sort of distance.
- Grade 1 form is important if not crucial – 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a top level contest, all over fences.
- All but 1 of the last 10 winners was rated 150 or higher prior to winning this.
- Buck Rogers caused a shock (and busted more than a few trends) when landing this at 16/1 in 1999 but none of the other winners since 1998 was returned any bigger than 7/1. 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 2/1 or shorter.
- Every winner since 1998 had run in the previous 5 weeks.
- The last 8 winners had run either once or twice in the current season.
- While 2 of the recent winners failed to complete on their most recent outing, the other 8 all finished in the first three last time out.
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Punchestown.
- All of the winners in the last decades had won a race over this intermediate trip, i.e. between 19 and 21 furlongs. 8 were multiple winners over this sort of distance.
- Grade 1 form is important if not crucial – 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a top level contest, all over fences.
Meeting Review: Fairyhouse Winter 'Festival' - November 29th & 30th
Positives: With fog enveloping much of the track, I couldn’t see much of 2m novice hurdle won by The Last Derby on Saturday but I liked what I saw; Eoin Griffin’s 4yo running out an easy winner over the decent Zarinava (received 5lbs) all despite having his first run over hurdles and being off the track since June and encountering ground much softer than he’d ever run on. He’ll be winning again soon, perhaps in pattern company. Luska Lad was another whose win on Saturday is literally clouded in mystery but it’s hard not to like the way the 4yo defied a double penalty to complete a 3-timer in the bumper. The form of his previous 2 wins had worked out well with subsequent winners Realt Dubh, The Bishop Looney and Part Presenting emerging from behind him and he looks a smart novice hurdle prospect for the remainder of the season. The Royal Bond was run in a time almost 11 seconds slower than the opening juvenile hurdle on Sunday and there’s no doubt in my mind that the runner-up Donnas Palm was most inconvenienced by the slow pace; he’d run out an impressive winner on his hurdles bow at Naas but needed plenty of stoking up to get on top there and already looks as if he wants a bit further. Even so, this was an excellent performance for a horse having just his second run over hurdles and it would be no surprise to see him reverse form with Hurricane Fly in a race with more emphasis on stamina. It’s impossible not to respect a horse like Trafford Lad because he just keeps winning; it’s rarely impressive (his 5 1/2l win in the Drinmore was his widest margin of victory so far!) but this brought his career record to 6 wins from 9 runs. Going up in trip won’t be a problem and nor will better ground and he sets the standard for the staying Irish novices at this point. Savitha [WON 4/1 - Leopardstown, 15/2/09 over hurdles] has had jumping issues since she threw away a graded novice at Punchestown last November with a blunder 4 out but as a result she’s well-treated over fences and was unlucky to be nutted on the line in the 2m handicap chase. She was given plenty to do here but made up her ground effortlessly and might be worth trying back over hurdles – a race that comprises fewer and smaller obstacles can only be in her favour. The Mac’s J Racing Syndicate endured the agony and the ecstasy with their star Macs Joy as well as plenty more agony with the likes of Valley Of Giants and Minnesota Leader but they look to have a horse to go to war with in Hugo De Vindecy. The French-bred ran out an impressive 7l winner of the 4yo bumper and it could well prove a decent race as a number of top yards were represented. A half-brother to the smart Rodock, he hails from a real soft ground family and could be up to defying a penalty in a winners' bumper.
Negatives: Alpine Eagle (11/10) and Mythical Prince (11/2) took out of chunk of the market in the opening race of the 2-day fixture but could manage only third and fifth respectively – the Cork maiden hurdle they fought out looks a weak event in hindsight and despite their high-profile connections and decent flat form, neither are anything special over hurdles. Jessica Harrington had another short-priced disappointment as Cork All Star got turned over at 5/4 in the 2m2f conditions hurdle – in 9 hurdles starts, he’s won just once at odds of 1/3 and has been a beaten favourite on 5 occasions. The bookies must love him and he’s long since paid back the Cheltenham Bumper losses. Yield For No One was as well fancied as anything in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle but he finished a well-beaten fifth and may have done his winning for now; this was his fifth run over hurdles and he appears to lack scope for improvement at this point of his season. Paul Carberry got it wrong in choosing Fisher Bridge over Donnas Palm in the Royal Bond and his mount finished last. The evidence of his previous run suggested he’s a Grade 3 animal at best and while he may prefer better ground (by Singspiel) the 5yo hardly appeals as one to follow. It was no surprise to see Rare Bob hit the frame in the Drinmore despite seemingly being out of his depth. This was the eighth time in 12 outings he’s made the three but he’s still without a win and certainly isn’t one to be taking a short price about in a beginners chase next time.
Pointers: Though both looked well-treated, neither Sophocles nor Perce Rock were ever likely to win the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle on Saturday. Their reasons for defeat were different – Sophocles needs much faster ground and Perce Rock was never seriously put into the race which was surprising given that he raced with the pace throughout his novice chase season and won first time out each of the last 3 years. I wouldn’t give up on either yet. There’s every chance Catch Me may have done his winning for now in landing the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle because a change in trip is unlikely to suit – he doesn’t jump well enough for the top 2-mile races and is a non-stayer over three. I’d like to see him sweep the board in the two and half mile graded races around the likes of Navan as he’d love the testing ground that often prevails there – his record on yielding/soft or worse since arriving in Ireland reads:11112U11411. Willie Mullins isn’t supposed to have his string in top order at this time of the year but his form figures over the weekend (155341FPP13056311343442) confirm his yard are in excellent form and the trainers championship looks at his mercy.
Negatives: Alpine Eagle (11/10) and Mythical Prince (11/2) took out of chunk of the market in the opening race of the 2-day fixture but could manage only third and fifth respectively – the Cork maiden hurdle they fought out looks a weak event in hindsight and despite their high-profile connections and decent flat form, neither are anything special over hurdles. Jessica Harrington had another short-priced disappointment as Cork All Star got turned over at 5/4 in the 2m2f conditions hurdle – in 9 hurdles starts, he’s won just once at odds of 1/3 and has been a beaten favourite on 5 occasions. The bookies must love him and he’s long since paid back the Cheltenham Bumper losses. Yield For No One was as well fancied as anything in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle but he finished a well-beaten fifth and may have done his winning for now; this was his fifth run over hurdles and he appears to lack scope for improvement at this point of his season. Paul Carberry got it wrong in choosing Fisher Bridge over Donnas Palm in the Royal Bond and his mount finished last. The evidence of his previous run suggested he’s a Grade 3 animal at best and while he may prefer better ground (by Singspiel) the 5yo hardly appeals as one to follow. It was no surprise to see Rare Bob hit the frame in the Drinmore despite seemingly being out of his depth. This was the eighth time in 12 outings he’s made the three but he’s still without a win and certainly isn’t one to be taking a short price about in a beginners chase next time.
Pointers: Though both looked well-treated, neither Sophocles nor Perce Rock were ever likely to win the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle on Saturday. Their reasons for defeat were different – Sophocles needs much faster ground and Perce Rock was never seriously put into the race which was surprising given that he raced with the pace throughout his novice chase season and won first time out each of the last 3 years. I wouldn’t give up on either yet. There’s every chance Catch Me may have done his winning for now in landing the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle because a change in trip is unlikely to suit – he doesn’t jump well enough for the top 2-mile races and is a non-stayer over three. I’d like to see him sweep the board in the two and half mile graded races around the likes of Navan as he’d love the testing ground that often prevails there – his record on yielding/soft or worse since arriving in Ireland reads:11112U11411. Willie Mullins isn’t supposed to have his string in top order at this time of the year but his form figures over the weekend (155341FPP13056311343442) confirm his yard are in excellent form and the trainers championship looks at his mercy.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Meeting Review: Navan, November 23rd
Positives: The form of her maiden hurdle win at Thurles made Dunroe Lady look one of the better handicapped horses off 95 in the 2m4f handicap hurdle but the 4yo has stamina doubts at trip having been well beaten on both her tries beyond 17f. Her jockey obviously didn’t have any doubts on that score and had her up with the pace throughout and she ran out an impressive 6l winner. With all the right horses filling the frame, the form looks solid and this improving type may not be done yet. The second in the same race Tom Doodle was having his first run since winning at the Listowel Festival in 2007 and should strip a lot fitter for this. He has enough back form – including a good third to Chomba Womba – to suggest he can win a handicap. The 2m maiden hurdle won by Mikael D’Haguenet [WON 3/1 - Navan, 14/12/08] [WON 1/3 - Naas, 4/1/09] [WON 4/11 - Punchestown, 1/2/09] [WON 5/2 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] lacked any real strength in depth but there was plenty to like about the 4yo’s performance all the same. His yard rarely fires on all cylinders at this time of the year but they still saw fit to back him from a morning price of 6/1 into 11/4 on course and the result was never really in doubt; he travelled very well and overcome a peck at the second last quickly to fly up the hill. He looks ripe for a step up in grade and it could be significant that his owner (Mrs S Ricci) don’t tend to have bad horses – her only runners with Mullins in the last 5 years were Pomme Tiepy and Themoonandsixpence and it’s likely that this lad cost a few quid. For the second time in as many starts over fences, Good Fella [WON 9/10 - Fairyhouse, 1/1] wasn’t seriously put into the race and is probably in a lot better form than his recent runs suggest. Patrick Mooney’s 7yo looks like he’s being ridden to get a handicap mark for chases and will be of interest as soon as he gets one as he was very consistent in handicap hurdles around 2m4f last spring.
Negatives: Roches Point will undoubtedly be seen to better effect on a faster ground and an easier track but he should still have managed to win what looked a weak bumper beforehand – he looks a real bridle horse and is one to be against if encountering similar ground in the future.
Pointers: I have to admit to being bitterly disappointed with Alpha Ridge in the ‘Monksfield’ but given that he finished a distance and 27ls clear of the 125-rated No Full and Sarteano, there’s every chance he ran his race and Pandorama is simply a superstar. The Meade horse refused to settle down the back as the field couldn’t go fast enough for him but he still pulled 26ls clear of Alpha Ridge without being extended. A conservative rating of the form puts Pandorama on a mark in the high 15os and that’s not even allowing for the ease of his success – the only worry with him regarding Cheltenham is if he runs again in the Grade 1 over course-and-distance in 3 weeks time, it will be his fourth outing before Christmas which is a lot of racing for a young horse. The Troytown may have lacked a real handicap blot but it was very keenly contested and a few of those involved in the finish have strong patterns to their form – Notre Pere runs very well on soft ground or worse, with form figures reading:222113321F41 while the fourth Vic Venturi finished plenty close enough for a horse that is has never won left-handed, his form figures on right-handed tracks reading:21113126P25982. Jayo is another horse who may find improvement for going back right-handed though there was nothing wrong with his narrow defeat behind Top Of The Rock in the 2m1f Beginners Chase. He will have little problem winning a maiden chase the other way around, where his form figures read:5211PF113. Your Sum Man was made favourite for the same race on the back of a good chase debut behind Drinmore hopeful Forpadydeplasterer but he had a massive negative to overcome with his trainer’s stable form – Tony Mullins has trained just 1 winner from 80 runners over jumps since May.
Negatives: Roches Point will undoubtedly be seen to better effect on a faster ground and an easier track but he should still have managed to win what looked a weak bumper beforehand – he looks a real bridle horse and is one to be against if encountering similar ground in the future.
Pointers: I have to admit to being bitterly disappointed with Alpha Ridge in the ‘Monksfield’ but given that he finished a distance and 27ls clear of the 125-rated No Full and Sarteano, there’s every chance he ran his race and Pandorama is simply a superstar. The Meade horse refused to settle down the back as the field couldn’t go fast enough for him but he still pulled 26ls clear of Alpha Ridge without being extended. A conservative rating of the form puts Pandorama on a mark in the high 15os and that’s not even allowing for the ease of his success – the only worry with him regarding Cheltenham is if he runs again in the Grade 1 over course-and-distance in 3 weeks time, it will be his fourth outing before Christmas which is a lot of racing for a young horse. The Troytown may have lacked a real handicap blot but it was very keenly contested and a few of those involved in the finish have strong patterns to their form – Notre Pere runs very well on soft ground or worse, with form figures reading:222113321F41 while the fourth Vic Venturi finished plenty close enough for a horse that is has never won left-handed, his form figures on right-handed tracks reading:21113126P25982. Jayo is another horse who may find improvement for going back right-handed though there was nothing wrong with his narrow defeat behind Top Of The Rock in the 2m1f Beginners Chase. He will have little problem winning a maiden chase the other way around, where his form figures read:5211PF113. Your Sum Man was made favourite for the same race on the back of a good chase debut behind Drinmore hopeful Forpadydeplasterer but he had a massive negative to overcome with his trainer’s stable form – Tony Mullins has trained just 1 winner from 80 runners over jumps since May.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
William Hill Troytown Handicap Chase, Navan October 23rd – The Key Trends
- The last 9 winners carried no more than 10-9 to victory. In the same period, all winners were in receipt of at least 18lbs from the top-weight.
- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.
- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter.
- I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.
- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.
- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.
- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.
- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.
- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance.
- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.
- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter.
- I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.
- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.
- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.
- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.
- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.
- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance.
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
Meetings Review: Down Royal & Leopardstown, November 1st & 2nd
Positives: Despite a few of the market leaders disappointing, the opening maiden at Down Royal is likely to prove informative and I was taken by the performance of the third Oh So Humbel. Keen on the way to post and in the race, the locally-trained 6yo certainly had a willing partner for his front-running tactics in 7lb claimer Andrew Thornton who has already shown a liking for getting on with things in his young career. Considering the way he raced, the Brian Hamilton-trained gelding did very well to hold on for third and should be winning if learning to settle better. The opening 7f maiden at Leopardstown had some interesting newcomers but most failed to shine as the experienced Oasis Sunset stole the race from the front on ground it was hard to come from behind on. One horse that did make up considerable late ground was the Tommy Stack-trained Wanna and she is should benefit from a hike in trip or more forceful tactics; a well-related daughter of Danehill Dancer, she will certainly be winning races. Solwhit will be an obvious one for a big handicap hurdle following his win the November Handicap but the hurdler who really caught my eye in that race was Won In The Dark and is probably the key horse to follow of the weekend because his excellent run in fifth was achieved with almost everything against him. He was 13lbs out of the handicap, having his first run since April on ground he doesn’t like and sweated up and raced keenly yet still managed to run a cracker, finishing just outside the frame. This run will tee him up nicely for a return to hurdling and though not 100% straightforward (he has swished his tail in the past), the 4yo will surely be able to exploit a mark of 135 over sticks. The Greatwood at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting looks an ideal target and he would also have a better chance of getting his favoured ground in England. I wasn’t at Cork on Sunday but it was impossible not to be impressed by the run of Alpha Ridge [WON 7/1 - Gowran Park, 22/1/09] in the 3-mile novice hurdle as Paul Nolan’s 6yo went off in front and simply broke his rivals’ hearts with a display of excellent jumping and relentless galloping. The run put me in the mind of Celestial Wave and like that excellent mare, Alpha Ridge is very well-suited by bad ground – his form figures on soft or worse read:13111. It will take a very smart horse to beat him when conditions are in his favour like they were at Cork.
Negatives: In getting turned over at odds of 6/4 in the Down Royal opener, Indian Spring extended his losing streak to 14 starts and confirmed impressions that he is a pig. I can’t have a horse that has twice finished second in a Grade 1 yet can’t win a maiden and the way he travelled best of all at the third last only to find little says that he’s not in love with the game. He’d even had a run on the flat to bring him to peak fitness, so that can’t be used as an excuse either. Silverhand may have produced one of the most eye-catching racecourse debuts in recent years when overcoming trouble-in-running to win at Punchestown last October but he’s been hugely disappointing since and ran the race of an ungenuine horse at Down Royal on Saturday. Held up and racing lazily throughout, he was first off the bridle yet gave little response to Paul Carberry’s urgings but deigned to run on late in the day when the jockey had all but given up hope. This isn’t the first time the 4yo has shown temperament – he was none willing to go by Beau Michael at Fairyhouse on his second run – and looks one to swerve. Al Qasi didn’t get the run of the race in the Knockaire Stakes but there’s no way he would have beaten the impressive Almass anyway and the fact remains that he’s forgotten how to win; after a career that began with 4 wins from 6 starts, he’s won just once in 14 outings since. He runs in Ireland enough for him to be interest to us and looks a bit of a twilight horse, caught between handicaps and pattern races, who perhaps doesn’t really see out 7f.
Pointers: Chateau D’eau has yet to deliver on the promise of his 2 bumper wins over hurdles but there were again extenuating circumstances at Down Royal; not for the first time, slow ground was against him and he looked keyed up for his seasonal debut. A drifter in the betting, he raced far too keenly and was never going to get home but should benefit from this experience and would certainly have possibilities back on a sound surface. Despite being run at a farcical pace and less than 3ls covering the first five home, I’m going to take a contrarian view and suggest that the valuable 2m Down Royal handicap hurdle will prove to be a decent piece of form. The winner Sole Bonne Femme may well have gotten a soft lead but his defeat of Save The Bacon at Navan last February suggested he was well-in on 102 while the world and his wife knows that Arc Bleu (backed from a morning price of 2/1 into 9/10 on track) is a blot on the weights on 104. He’ll need to brush up on his jumping to exploit that rating though a step up in trip could also help while the second Right Or Wrong has no problems in the department – he jumped expertly and his showing the benefits of an off-season wind operation. The fourth Lazio had run in two very hot races before turning out here and though tricky to win with, the 7yo is certainly on a decent mark while Quartino gives the form a very solid look. With the main contenders finishing in a heap, the handicapper can’t be too harsh and I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the above horses in the coming weeks. Race conditions left the 140-rated Finger Onthe Pulse with an impossible task of giving the 151-rated Noland 3lbs in the Grade 3 Chase but the 7yo didn’t help himself by sweating up beforehand and doing plenty in front. He actually ran a cracker to finish second (beaten 12ls) and it will be interesting to see what the English handicapper does with him when the Paddy Power weights are revealed this week – going back left-handed will certainly suit (all but 1 of his 7 career wins have come that way around) as will some decent ground. With the first four finishing in a pile and the third Masterofthehorse running poorly in the Racing Post Trophy, the form of the Beresford Stakes looked pretty dubious until the runner-up Mourayan gave it a timely boost by landing an admittedly weak renewal of the Eyrefield Stakes in comfortable fashion. The horse that defeated him at the Curragh, his stable-mate Sea The Stars, has always been well-regarded by the Oxx camp and though his form isn’t anything wonderful, he has impressed with his way of going about things thus far in his career. Mythical Prince was fancied in the closing 1m4f handicap but Noel Meade’s charge again ran poorly left-handed, beating only 1 rival home, his figures on left-handed courses now reading:7900. Excluding maidens, his figures right-handed are a much better:11221 and he would be of interest when racing that way around again.
Negatives: In getting turned over at odds of 6/4 in the Down Royal opener, Indian Spring extended his losing streak to 14 starts and confirmed impressions that he is a pig. I can’t have a horse that has twice finished second in a Grade 1 yet can’t win a maiden and the way he travelled best of all at the third last only to find little says that he’s not in love with the game. He’d even had a run on the flat to bring him to peak fitness, so that can’t be used as an excuse either. Silverhand may have produced one of the most eye-catching racecourse debuts in recent years when overcoming trouble-in-running to win at Punchestown last October but he’s been hugely disappointing since and ran the race of an ungenuine horse at Down Royal on Saturday. Held up and racing lazily throughout, he was first off the bridle yet gave little response to Paul Carberry’s urgings but deigned to run on late in the day when the jockey had all but given up hope. This isn’t the first time the 4yo has shown temperament – he was none willing to go by Beau Michael at Fairyhouse on his second run – and looks one to swerve. Al Qasi didn’t get the run of the race in the Knockaire Stakes but there’s no way he would have beaten the impressive Almass anyway and the fact remains that he’s forgotten how to win; after a career that began with 4 wins from 6 starts, he’s won just once in 14 outings since. He runs in Ireland enough for him to be interest to us and looks a bit of a twilight horse, caught between handicaps and pattern races, who perhaps doesn’t really see out 7f.
Pointers: Chateau D’eau has yet to deliver on the promise of his 2 bumper wins over hurdles but there were again extenuating circumstances at Down Royal; not for the first time, slow ground was against him and he looked keyed up for his seasonal debut. A drifter in the betting, he raced far too keenly and was never going to get home but should benefit from this experience and would certainly have possibilities back on a sound surface. Despite being run at a farcical pace and less than 3ls covering the first five home, I’m going to take a contrarian view and suggest that the valuable 2m Down Royal handicap hurdle will prove to be a decent piece of form. The winner Sole Bonne Femme may well have gotten a soft lead but his defeat of Save The Bacon at Navan last February suggested he was well-in on 102 while the world and his wife knows that Arc Bleu (backed from a morning price of 2/1 into 9/10 on track) is a blot on the weights on 104. He’ll need to brush up on his jumping to exploit that rating though a step up in trip could also help while the second Right Or Wrong has no problems in the department – he jumped expertly and his showing the benefits of an off-season wind operation. The fourth Lazio had run in two very hot races before turning out here and though tricky to win with, the 7yo is certainly on a decent mark while Quartino gives the form a very solid look. With the main contenders finishing in a heap, the handicapper can’t be too harsh and I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the above horses in the coming weeks. Race conditions left the 140-rated Finger Onthe Pulse with an impossible task of giving the 151-rated Noland 3lbs in the Grade 3 Chase but the 7yo didn’t help himself by sweating up beforehand and doing plenty in front. He actually ran a cracker to finish second (beaten 12ls) and it will be interesting to see what the English handicapper does with him when the Paddy Power weights are revealed this week – going back left-handed will certainly suit (all but 1 of his 7 career wins have come that way around) as will some decent ground. With the first four finishing in a pile and the third Masterofthehorse running poorly in the Racing Post Trophy, the form of the Beresford Stakes looked pretty dubious until the runner-up Mourayan gave it a timely boost by landing an admittedly weak renewal of the Eyrefield Stakes in comfortable fashion. The horse that defeated him at the Curragh, his stable-mate Sea The Stars, has always been well-regarded by the Oxx camp and though his form isn’t anything wonderful, he has impressed with his way of going about things thus far in his career. Mythical Prince was fancied in the closing 1m4f handicap but Noel Meade’s charge again ran poorly left-handed, beating only 1 rival home, his figures on left-handed courses now reading:7900. Excluding maidens, his figures right-handed are a much better:11221 and he would be of interest when racing that way around again.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Weekend NAP - Sunday, November 2nd
Leopardstown 2.15 - Almass
Last week: Sigma Digital, Won @ 5/4
Season to date: +13.7
Last week: Sigma Digital, Won @ 5/4
Season to date: +13.7
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
November Handicap, Leopardstown November 2nd - The Key Trends*
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.
- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.
- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.
- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.
- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.
- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.
- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.
- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.
- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.
- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.
*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.
- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.
- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.
- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.
- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.
- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.
- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.
- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.
- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.
- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.
*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.
Monday, October 27, 2008
Meeting Review: Leopardstown, October 27th
Positives: When Mick Kinane opted to ride Vitruvian Man in the Killavullan Stakes, I was starting to doubt my claim that Rayeni was a ‘formality’ for the Group 3 but initial impressions of the Indian Ridge colt’s debut proved well-founded as he fairly bolted away with things. Settled in sixth, Fran Berry and the Aga Khan colt made up ground effortlessly turning into the straight and was still on the bridle as he took things up a furlong from home before going away to win by an easy length and a half. The visuals were striking and, as at Naas, the performance was backed up by the clock as he clocked by far the best time of the four races run over 7f on the card. Oxx has a strong crop of juvenile colts this season and I suspect this one is the pick though his trainer has pointed out that he needs to get his toe in. With that in mind he’s probably not one to consider for an ante-post bet but given the weather that we’ve had over the past two summers he may have ample opportunity to prove himself on his ideal conditions in 2009 and looks an strong candidate to uphold this race’s recent tradition of throwing up classic winners – Grey Swallow and Footstepsinthesand won it in 2003 and 2004 respectively. Qassaar was the last horse off the bit in the 7f colts & geldings maiden before managing only fourth but he looks well worth another try on a faster surface. By Cape Cross, he’s bred to like some decent ground and none of his 5 winning siblings had won on slower than good-soft. A run at Dundalk before the end of the season could be a distinct possibility.
Negatives: I don’t know if the Peter Canavan who owns Toraidhe (runner-up in the 7f maiden) is the same Peter Canavan that captained Tyrone to their first All-Ireland success, but if he is then the great Gaelic footballer will be disappointed to know that his juvenile has none of his genuine attitude to competition. The son of High Chaparral looked a difficult ride under Danny Mullins and his head carriage wouldn’t endear him either. Some of this may be down to inexperience but even so he’s not one I’d rush to back at a short price in a maiden next time.
Pointers: The strength of the Oxx juveniles was alluded to above and the Curraghbeg trainer maintained his excellent 50% strike-rate with 2yos at the track with two more winners, bringing his seasonal record to 9 winners from 18 runners. Such figures bode well for next season and while Rayeni could well prove the star of the show there are a number of others that could progress into top-level performers. The likes of Arazan and Sea The Stars have already been well-touted but keep an eye on the unexposed Beauty O’Gwaun who beat a talented sort in The Bull Hayes by 3ls at the Curragh on October 20th. The same horse had been beaten by just 2ls when 5th in the Goffs Million on his most recent start, a piece of form that paints Beauty O’Gwaun in a good light. Having run well over course and distance on his penultimate start, Mull On The Run was unsurprisingly a warm order in the Apprentice Handicap Final over 9f but the 4yo ran no sort of race and finished a tailed off last. It’s possible the ground (officially yielding-soft) was too slow for the gelding (all 3 of his wins had come on good-yielding or faster) but perhaps more to the point, he had sweated up badly in the preliminaries on what was one of the coldest days of the autumn so far and can be forgiven this poor run. Peacock’s Pride was unable to follow up his Navan success on Wednesday in the closing event but his runner-up finish marks him down as something of a 10f specialist, his record at the trip now reading:2112.
Negatives: I don’t know if the Peter Canavan who owns Toraidhe (runner-up in the 7f maiden) is the same Peter Canavan that captained Tyrone to their first All-Ireland success, but if he is then the great Gaelic footballer will be disappointed to know that his juvenile has none of his genuine attitude to competition. The son of High Chaparral looked a difficult ride under Danny Mullins and his head carriage wouldn’t endear him either. Some of this may be down to inexperience but even so he’s not one I’d rush to back at a short price in a maiden next time.
Pointers: The strength of the Oxx juveniles was alluded to above and the Curraghbeg trainer maintained his excellent 50% strike-rate with 2yos at the track with two more winners, bringing his seasonal record to 9 winners from 18 runners. Such figures bode well for next season and while Rayeni could well prove the star of the show there are a number of others that could progress into top-level performers. The likes of Arazan and Sea The Stars have already been well-touted but keep an eye on the unexposed Beauty O’Gwaun who beat a talented sort in The Bull Hayes by 3ls at the Curragh on October 20th. The same horse had been beaten by just 2ls when 5th in the Goffs Million on his most recent start, a piece of form that paints Beauty O’Gwaun in a good light. Having run well over course and distance on his penultimate start, Mull On The Run was unsurprisingly a warm order in the Apprentice Handicap Final over 9f but the 4yo ran no sort of race and finished a tailed off last. It’s possible the ground (officially yielding-soft) was too slow for the gelding (all 3 of his wins had come on good-yielding or faster) but perhaps more to the point, he had sweated up badly in the preliminaries on what was one of the coldest days of the autumn so far and can be forgiven this poor run. Peacock’s Pride was unable to follow up his Navan success on Wednesday in the closing event but his runner-up finish marks him down as something of a 10f specialist, his record at the trip now reading:2112.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Meeting Review: Naas, October 25th
Positives: The opening maiden hurdle has historically been a good race with Catch Me, Wanango and Feathard Lady among the recent winners and this year’s renewal looked well up to scratch beforehand with a number of interesting types declared. The right horses were all involved in the finish and there should be plenty of future winners to come out of the race; the winner Donnas Palm looks ripe for a step up to graded company while both Zarinava (second) and Glenstal Abbey (fifth) should both improve for better ground. I’m not so keen on the fourth Just Friends who was the best supported runner in the race (from a morning price of 8/1 into 4s on course) – his stable’s runners tend to be ready first time out and he won on debut last term so there may not be as much improvement to come from him as the others. One horse that is sure to improve dramatically is the third Smoking Aces [WON 4/5 - Naas, 22/2/09] and he was without doubt the eye-catcher in the race. A market drifter beforehand, he was given a negative ride by Paddy Flood (raced in mid-division and kept wide throughout) but the 4yo stayed out to great effect in the closing stages having been full of 10ls behind the fourth horse jumping the second last. The combination of a step up in trip, the benefit of the run and more positive tactics should see him hard to beat and the 2m2f maiden hurdle on Hatton’s Grace Day at Fairyhouse (won by his stable-mate Merdeka) in 2005 could be his next port of call. Noel Meade isn’t known for handicapping horses by running them on unsuitable conditions but that’s exactly what he appeared to do with Island Life [WON 11/8 - Thurles, 6/11] [WON 9/4 - Gowran Park, 22/11] [WON 16/1 - Leopardstown, 1/3/09]last spring; the 5yo being held up in beginners chases on decent ground without the help of blinkers when his 2 previous wins had come from front in headgear on testing going. The blinds were back on for the 2m handicap chase and the 112-rated hurdler looked like he was going to exploit a chase mark of 89 when hitting the front travelling well only to tip up at the third last. Though the cat may be out of the bag regarding this one, he at least showed that he retains his ability and will be winning a handicap chase or two in the near future. Ninetieth Minute [WON 11/2 - Fairyhouse, 13/12] [WON 3/1 - Thurles, 21/12] [WON 14/1 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] was disappointing last term after a bright start but he showed up well in the featured handicap hurdle behind Kirbybroguelantern and was probably unlucky not to finish second having made a bad mistake at the second last. A mark of 123 is hardly lenient for a horse that has won just once over hurdles and the fact that he didn’t improve through the season last year is a worry, but this was a run full of promise and he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest he can win a decent handicap off his rating. Lots Of Shots was the subject of a significant gamble in the 2m handicap hurdle (from 10s into 9/2 on course) but his run was too bad to be true and was pulled up down the back. He’d run a cracker over 2m4f at Punchestown last time when looking like the winner turning for home but his stamina gave out close home and he had a very hard race in the process. That run came after a short break and he might just need time between his races and isn’t one to give up on just yet. The winner of the race, Merry Cowboy, looked very well-in on a hurdle mark of 95 relative to his chase rating of 123 but he probably won in spite of the 2 mile trip rather than because of it. All his previous winning form had been around two and a half miles and on right-handed tracks and the rain that got into the ground throughout the day certainly helped turn this race into the stamina test he needs. He had to be vigorously ridden to win here by a length and with the handicapper unlikely to be too harsh on him, the 7yo should be hard to beat in a similar contest upped in trip.
Negatives: Noble Crusader has long been an over-rated horse as his defeats at odds of 15/8 and 6/4 at the Galway Races 2008 suggest and he ran another poor race in the 3m novice hurdle. The ground was hardly in his favour here (he’s by Giant’s Causeway) but either way he’s one to field against if he is campaigned through the winter. For the third time in as many races, Gallant Light found one too good in the bumper and Jessica Harrington’s is proving to be anything but his name at present. He looked awkward under pressure last time at Gowran and again traded odds-on in running here and is one to swerve as he’s not putting it all in.
Pointers: Made In Taipan needs to go left-handed (form figures:816F212) and ran a cracker when second under top-weight in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle, emerging as the best horse at the weights. As a free-going sort, this 2m4f trip on heavy ground wouldn’t have been ideal and he has possibilities back at the minimum trip going anti-clockwise. A number of horses in the same race where ridden negatively, not least Line Ball (made up good ground to finish eighth), Southern Vic (never put into the race on his first run since January 2007) and Schindlers Hunt. The last-named was running off a mark 30lbs lower than his chase rating but, having never won beyond 2m1f, finds this sort of trip beyond him. He also tends to need the run – his first time out form figures read:7255 while his figures on his second starts are:4113 – and should improve next time. The Meade yard continues in excellent form with their runners at the meeting finishing:11F307 – it’s about time I started backing some of them!
Negatives: Noble Crusader has long been an over-rated horse as his defeats at odds of 15/8 and 6/4 at the Galway Races 2008 suggest and he ran another poor race in the 3m novice hurdle. The ground was hardly in his favour here (he’s by Giant’s Causeway) but either way he’s one to field against if he is campaigned through the winter. For the third time in as many races, Gallant Light found one too good in the bumper and Jessica Harrington’s is proving to be anything but his name at present. He looked awkward under pressure last time at Gowran and again traded odds-on in running here and is one to swerve as he’s not putting it all in.
Pointers: Made In Taipan needs to go left-handed (form figures:816F212) and ran a cracker when second under top-weight in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle, emerging as the best horse at the weights. As a free-going sort, this 2m4f trip on heavy ground wouldn’t have been ideal and he has possibilities back at the minimum trip going anti-clockwise. A number of horses in the same race where ridden negatively, not least Line Ball (made up good ground to finish eighth), Southern Vic (never put into the race on his first run since January 2007) and Schindlers Hunt. The last-named was running off a mark 30lbs lower than his chase rating but, having never won beyond 2m1f, finds this sort of trip beyond him. He also tends to need the run – his first time out form figures read:7255 while his figures on his second starts are:4113 – and should improve next time. The Meade yard continues in excellent form with their runners at the meeting finishing:11F307 – it’s about time I started backing some of them!
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Sunday, October 19, 2008
Meeting Review: Fairyhouse, October 19th 2008
Negatives: Racing Post stat-man James Pyman produced an interesting (if perhaps not detailed enough) study of the success rate of adding blinkers in last Wednesday’s edition of the trade paper and his most striking finding from an Irish perspective was the horrible record of Aidan O’Brien-trained runners when blinkered. Something like 47 Ballydoyle runners have run with the ‘rogue’s badge’ in recent times with just one winning and Four Star General further disimproved that record when coming second in the opening 6f maiden. This was the fourth time in 8 career starts that the son of Danehill Dancer has been a beaten favourite and he’s definitely one to swerve. John Oxx is probably my favourite trainer but even the great man has his share of dogs in training and, for the third time in as many starts, Ebashan looked a complete pig in the 7f maiden. If there’s something a horse can do wrong, Ebashan will do it and in his career to date he has swished his tail, held his head high, refused to go by the leader and downed tools in the closing stages. The winner Golden Sword hasn’t progressed a jot in his 4-race career and the fact that he so comprehensively reversed form with Ebashan from their previous run in similar conditions paints the Oxx colt in a very bad light. Having hit a low of 1.03 in-running, I look forward to getting him in the in-race market again in the future.
Pointers: Having once been rated as high as 105, Majestic Times has been out of sorts for much of 2008 and has dropped to a mark of 88. His fourth in the Joe McGrath Handicap was more like what he’s capable of and the conditions certainly brought out the best in him – his record over 6f on soft or worse now reads:12173034. Having once been beaten a head in the Ayr Gold Cup of 97, he might have possibilities in a handicap granted similar conditions. Muskatsturm brought some high class handicap form from the Cesarewitch and the October Handicap into the Finale Stakes and he very nearly upset proven pattern horses when going down by a neck to Jane Austen who got an inspired ride from Johnny Murtagh. The presence of Cesarewitch winner Suailce in third is another pointer to the value of the Curragh form and anyone looking for winners of staying handicaps in the coming weeks should commence their study with these races. In comparison with England, draw biases aren’t really addressed in the Irish racing media but it’s worth noting the importance of a high stall over 6f at Fairyhouse. The first four home in an 18-runner field in the premier handicap were drawn 17, 18, 16 & 14 and horses drawn low tend to get trapped very wide on the turn into the straight. With the jumps season getting into full swing, there were a number of pointers at the away meeting at Cork. Buenos Dias was highlighted here a few weeks back and he shaped with even more encouragement than on that run at Gowran when a good eighth in the 2 mile handicap hurdle. Ridden by a 7lb claimer, he looks like he’s being run into peak fitness and should be ready to strike in the next run or two, perhaps with a more experienced jockey up. There was a sustained gamble on Alpine Eagle in the 2 mile maiden hurdle (from a morning price of 6/1 into and SP of 7/4) and he probably should have won as his jockey was a little too confident aboard the formerly smart flat performer. The 4yo impressed with the way he travelled but a slow jump at the last didn’t help his cause and while he will have little trouble winning a maiden, improvement in the jumping department is a pre-requisite for a rise in class. Jamies Choice has been a revelation since dropped to the minimum trip and his win in the Alchemy Properties Handicap Chase brought his record over 16/17f to:B911111. He’s hard to get past when he gets on the lead and may not be finished winning yet as the handicapper won’t put him up too much for a hard-fought 2l win and the Irish 2-mile chasing division in notoriously weak. The horse that chased him home was the infamous Pom Flyer who has now gone 16 runs without a win, despite being sent off at 9/2 or shorter on 10 of those occasions. He continually finds ways to lose but is a rock-solid horse for placepot perms and/or place only bets on the exchanges.
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Monday, October 13, 2008
Meeting Review: Naas, 12th October 2008
Positives: I think we may just have seen the emergence of a real star in the shape of Rayeni [WON 7/2 - Leopardstown, 27/10] in the opening 6f maiden. The John Oxx-trained colt was making his debut and belied his trainer’s concern that ‘he might be too green to win’ to bolt up by 5ls. Given the way they improve for a run, Oxx horses that win first time out are often smart and the performance on the clock was exceptional. The son of Indian Ridge covered the distance in 0.2s faster than the 98-rated Hallie’s Comet in the next and 0.9s faster than 89-rated Tomas An Tsioda in the Birdcatcher (both those horses also carried 9-0), suggesting ran to a figure in the low nineties at worst. This race has been a decent trial for the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown (Confuchias won both in 2006) and I would go so far as to say that the race looks a formality for him. The time of the fillies maiden wasn’t bad itself and the interesting horse is the runner-up Sioduil who split the two form horses here. She had the worst of the draw in stall 1 and had to tack across for the better ground and still managed to get within a head of a filly that was third in a Group 3 last time. The Oasis Dream filly (who on breeding may also improve for a faster ground – she’s yet to run on quicker than yielding) will have her choice of maidens before the end of the season and a 10lbs hike to 87 probably wouldn’t be enough to stop her in nursery either. The money was down for Convincing in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (from 10/1 into 6/1) but he managed only a poor third, which was no surprise as he doesn’t see out this trip. He’ll do better back at the minimum (all 4 of his hurdles wins have come over the bare 2 miles) and with a further drop in the weights likely, he should be able to win a handicap on his favoured heavy ground. I wouldn’t rule out a win on the flat where he looks well-treated off 63, though trips much beyond 10f stretch him. The October Handicap has been an excellent launching pad for decent hurdlers in recent years with the likes of Essex, Lounaos and Jazz Messenger all running well her e before thriving over obstacles. This year’s winner Menwaal reportedly has ‘legs like glass’ so I’m not sure he’ll stand up to the rigours of jumping while the 9yo Muskatsturm might be a bit old to change codes. Consequently the other placed horses are most interesting. Runner-up Jumbo Rio [WON 5/2 - Punchestown, 31/12] is just a 3yo and did very well to hit in the frame in a race that older horses have dominated recently. Tough and consistent, he hasn’t finished out of the first four in 8 starts this season and he has the touch of class necessary to make up into a decent juvenile hurdler – he doesn’t mind cut in the ground either. The fourth, Deputy Consort, absolutely loves bad ground (his figures on yielding-soft or worse in both codes read:1136124) and, despite being placed in a Grade 2 as a juvenile hurdler, has somehow dropped to a mark of 104. That sort of rating makes him a blot on the weights at present and given that he hasn’t been over-raced this summer, the 5yo should be able to exploit it fairly soon. The Meade yard have started some decent types off in the closing bumper in recent times (Aran Concerto and Back To Bid) and Pandorama [WON 4/9 - Navan, 9/11] [WON 8/13 - Navan, 23/11] won in the manner of a horse that could be anything. He’d routed a field of pointers at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and though some of these wide-margin wins can represent dubious form it’s significant that the horse to have run since (all beaten upwards of 22ls, giving weight away all around) have acquitted themselves well. Bad ground is ideal and his trainer reports that he may prove best left-handed.
Negatives: Akrisrun had run well for a long way in the Goffs Million and was well-supported from an opening show of 5s in 3/1 in the opener. His supporters (myself included!) never had a moment’s worry that he would be involved in the finish as he produced his worst run of the season by some distance. He makes no appeal as a future winner.
Pointers: The four horses that topped the handicap in the Birdcatcher were the first four home as not for the first time the race was dominated by the classier animals. Liscanna and Fourpenny Lane bucked the trend by carrying 8-4 and 8-8 in the last 2 years respectively but in the previous decade, seven winners carried at least 8-10. Next year, I’ll not try to be too clever and just find the class horse that’s suited by the conditions. The modus operandi of the Noel Meade stable is pretty much an open book at this stage – they burst out of the blocks early only to fizzle out after Christmas. All the same, it’s worth noting that the form figures of his runners (jumps only) from Friday through Sunday read:11261F002621921. I often convince myself that his runners are over-bet at this time of the year (which many of them are) but I will be making a conscious effort between now and the end of the year to find those that aren’t as a strike-rate like his simply can’t be ignored. At Limerick, Finger Onthe Pulse finally won right-handed for the first time in a 20-race career in the Grade 3 chase over 2m1f. Whether he’ll do so again is open to question (he seemed to be lugging out to the left on the first circuit) is open to question but it certainly bodes well for his season ahead. Races like the Fortria and the Dial-A-Bet Chase could be on his agenda after this (both are run on his favoured left-handed tracks) but it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with him after this as the Paddy Power looked an obvious early season target (he was a course-and-distance winner in the Jewson last term).
Negatives: Akrisrun had run well for a long way in the Goffs Million and was well-supported from an opening show of 5s in 3/1 in the opener. His supporters (myself included!) never had a moment’s worry that he would be involved in the finish as he produced his worst run of the season by some distance. He makes no appeal as a future winner.
Pointers: The four horses that topped the handicap in the Birdcatcher were the first four home as not for the first time the race was dominated by the classier animals. Liscanna and Fourpenny Lane bucked the trend by carrying 8-4 and 8-8 in the last 2 years respectively but in the previous decade, seven winners carried at least 8-10. Next year, I’ll not try to be too clever and just find the class horse that’s suited by the conditions. The modus operandi of the Noel Meade stable is pretty much an open book at this stage – they burst out of the blocks early only to fizzle out after Christmas. All the same, it’s worth noting that the form figures of his runners (jumps only) from Friday through Sunday read:11261F002621921. I often convince myself that his runners are over-bet at this time of the year (which many of them are) but I will be making a conscious effort between now and the end of the year to find those that aren’t as a strike-rate like his simply can’t be ignored. At Limerick, Finger Onthe Pulse finally won right-handed for the first time in a 20-race career in the Grade 3 chase over 2m1f. Whether he’ll do so again is open to question (he seemed to be lugging out to the left on the first circuit) is open to question but it certainly bodes well for his season ahead. Races like the Fortria and the Dial-A-Bet Chase could be on his agenda after this (both are run on his favoured left-handed tracks) but it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with him after this as the Paddy Power looked an obvious early season target (he was a course-and-distance winner in the Jewson last term).
Monday, October 6, 2008
Meetings Review: Gowran Park & Tipperary, October 5th & 6th
Positives: Buenos Dias had enough decent form in France to say an Irish mark of 104 was exploitable in the 2m handicap hurdle on Saturday but his price on Betfair suggested that it wasn’t to be his day and the 4yo beat just three rivals home. However, this looked the run of an unfit horse as he jumped and travelled well before blowing up and can be expected to improve for this. A slight drop in the ratings won’t do his chances of winning any harm and he promises to be suited by soft ground. Fantoche wasn’t brilliant over his fences in the 2m1f beginners’ chase but in winning by a length he achieved the rare feat of landing a race in 3 codes (flat, hurdles, fences) in a calendar year. It’s on the level where he’ll be of most immediate interest as Seamus Heffernan gave him an uncharacteristically negative ride last time in the Cesarewitch, finishing well to grab fifth, and the 6yo (who isn’t harshly treated off 86) looks a live one for the November Handicap at Leopardstown in few weeks time. Baltiman looked ungenuine over hurdles but he’s been a reformed character over fences and for the second time as many chase starts, he found plenty when challenged by a seemingly dangerous rival. Already a much better chaser than hurdler, he could yet win another small graded race on soft ground or worse, conditions where his form figures read:32241211.
Negatives: The graded chase at Gowran saw Conna Castle and Knight Legend renew rivalry from Listowel last September and the first-named was inexplicably sent off as 15/8 favourite, backed in from a morning price of 4/1. I say inexplicable because to me the pair’s careers have gone separate ways since; Knight Legend marking himself as a solid graded performer while Conna Castle looking ever more inconsistent, though admittedly he did win shocking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup in the interim. Even allowing for a few non-runners, this was a significant move but Conna Castle again disappointed, being pulled up before the second last and he’s never one to back at a short price. Footy Facts was a well-fancied 11/8 shot in the graded novice chase at Tipp but he could be turning into something of a bookies’ horse; having won 4 of his first 6 starts, he’s won just once in his last 8 outings. His jumping was poor here on conditions that should have suited and he’s unlikely to prove competitive in graded class and connections have already made sure he’s going to receive a pretty lofty initial handicap mark. Having blotted his copybook by sweating up at Galway, Lucky Wish proceeded to do something similar at Tipperary and looks one to be wary off. He was keen in the preliminaries, wearing cotton in his ears and had to be taken down to post early. In the race itself, he was a disappointing last of five and he’s one to swerve at the minute, despite what the market may say (he’s been well backed on his last two starts).
Pointers: Alickadoo backed up his reappearance win at Ballinrobe with a tough success in the 3m handicap chase at Gowran and the form of the Ballinrobe race (22nd September) continues to look strong; the runner-up Rory’s Sister won by an easy 12ls on her next start too. Perhaps the horse to take from the race is Tubber Gael Holly who jumped poorly on that occasion but still had place claims before unseating at the last – she has since finished runner-up to Mac Robin at Clonmel and still has 6lbs in hand on her hurdles mark and her form figures on good or faster read:0221014132. There was plenty of talk for a number of runners in the debutantes’ bumper at Gowran and with the three market principals fighting out the finish, there’s every chance this was an above-average affair. The form could be worth following but I’m not convinced the winner is the one to take out of the race; like many from the Michael O’Brien yard, he was primed for his debut (sweated up beforehand) and may not go on from this. The Concorde Stakes saw confirmation of two horses as course specialists: Psalm loves it at Tipperary (form figures:111) while Jumbajukiba doesn’t really show much away from the Curragh these days where his figures read:41118211 with the sole poor run coming over 10f, a trip that is well beyond this free-going sort. Previous form suggested Megans Joy would be ill-suited by the heavy ground at Tipperary but perhaps small field conditions races are her ideal conditions; she isn’t the best jumper and never got competitive last time in the Galway Hurdle but the more sedate pace showed her in a better light here.
Negatives: The graded chase at Gowran saw Conna Castle and Knight Legend renew rivalry from Listowel last September and the first-named was inexplicably sent off as 15/8 favourite, backed in from a morning price of 4/1. I say inexplicable because to me the pair’s careers have gone separate ways since; Knight Legend marking himself as a solid graded performer while Conna Castle looking ever more inconsistent, though admittedly he did win shocking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup in the interim. Even allowing for a few non-runners, this was a significant move but Conna Castle again disappointed, being pulled up before the second last and he’s never one to back at a short price. Footy Facts was a well-fancied 11/8 shot in the graded novice chase at Tipp but he could be turning into something of a bookies’ horse; having won 4 of his first 6 starts, he’s won just once in his last 8 outings. His jumping was poor here on conditions that should have suited and he’s unlikely to prove competitive in graded class and connections have already made sure he’s going to receive a pretty lofty initial handicap mark. Having blotted his copybook by sweating up at Galway, Lucky Wish proceeded to do something similar at Tipperary and looks one to be wary off. He was keen in the preliminaries, wearing cotton in his ears and had to be taken down to post early. In the race itself, he was a disappointing last of five and he’s one to swerve at the minute, despite what the market may say (he’s been well backed on his last two starts).
Pointers: Alickadoo backed up his reappearance win at Ballinrobe with a tough success in the 3m handicap chase at Gowran and the form of the Ballinrobe race (22nd September) continues to look strong; the runner-up Rory’s Sister won by an easy 12ls on her next start too. Perhaps the horse to take from the race is Tubber Gael Holly who jumped poorly on that occasion but still had place claims before unseating at the last – she has since finished runner-up to Mac Robin at Clonmel and still has 6lbs in hand on her hurdles mark and her form figures on good or faster read:0221014132. There was plenty of talk for a number of runners in the debutantes’ bumper at Gowran and with the three market principals fighting out the finish, there’s every chance this was an above-average affair. The form could be worth following but I’m not convinced the winner is the one to take out of the race; like many from the Michael O’Brien yard, he was primed for his debut (sweated up beforehand) and may not go on from this. The Concorde Stakes saw confirmation of two horses as course specialists: Psalm loves it at Tipperary (form figures:111) while Jumbajukiba doesn’t really show much away from the Curragh these days where his figures read:41118211 with the sole poor run coming over 10f, a trip that is well beyond this free-going sort. Previous form suggested Megans Joy would be ill-suited by the heavy ground at Tipperary but perhaps small field conditions races are her ideal conditions; she isn’t the best jumper and never got competitive last time in the Galway Hurdle but the more sedate pace showed her in a better light here.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
Saturday, September 20, 2008
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Saturday, August 23, 2008
Weekend NAP - August 23rd
Curragh 3.40 - All Diamonds
Last Week: Sea The Stars, Won @ 2/1
Season to date: + 20.4
Last Week: Sea The Stars, Won @ 2/1
Season to date: + 20.4
Sunday, August 17, 2008
Saturday, August 9, 2008
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Saturday, July 19, 2008
Weekend NAP - July 20th
Fairyhouse 4.35 - Ask Jack
Last Week: Ballyhaunis, Won @ Evens
Season to date: + 7.4
Last Week: Ballyhaunis, Won @ Evens
Season to date: + 7.4
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Weekend NAP - July 12th
Curragh 5.30 - Ballyhaunis
Last Week: Eritrea, Won @ 5/2
Season to date: + 6.4
Last Week: Eritrea, Won @ 5/2
Season to date: + 6.4
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Meeting Review: Bellewstown, 5th July 2008
Positives: The form of the Punchestown won by Jewel Of The West had been given a healthy endorsement by the second winning easily since and he confirmed himself a smart summer novice with an easy success in the 2m1f novice hurdle. Paul Carberry gave the 4yo a confident ride and the winning margin doesn’t do his superiority justice. He could well live up to his name at Galway in a few weeks time. On her decent juvenile hurdle form last term, Eritrea [WON Wexford, 11/7/08 - 7/4] looked a blot in the 1m6f handicap for horses yet to win a flat race. So it proved as Danny Grant gave the mare a very positive ride, kicking her clear before the straight and winning by over 2 lengths. Provided the handicapper doesn’t take umbrage to this, she can win again but may want to get her toe in – there was certainly a cut in the ground here and she has a scratchy action. The second Compton Court can also win a handicap and he wasn’t suited by the way the race unfolded. He met some interference early on and had to come from off the pace in a race where everything was happening up front but he stayed on to good effect in the closing stages without ever looking like winning. He was well-backed at double-figure prices in the morning but the ground went against him (he won twice on fast ground over hurdles last summer) and he will get his turn off a mark that looks fair. Pistol Jack is from a family of real staying types including Rosslea and it was no real surprise to see plenty of money for him on his first try at three miles in the maiden hurdle. He travelled well throughout and should improve for it to win small race. Pat Martin’s Lucky At Last [WON 8/1 - Bellewstown, 28/8] [WON 5/1 - Ballinrobe, 22/8] [WON 9/2 - Fairyhouse, 12/11] had shown little in 8 previous starts before his run in the 2m4f handicap hurdle but the 6yo gelding showed a turn-of-foot that’s rarely seen in this class of race and looks a type that can win again. A step up in trip is unlikely to be a problem on this evidence.
Negatives: The weight of money that saw Galiyan backed from 3/1 early doors into 5/4 on course was hard to fathom and his sixth place finish in the 1m4f maiden was more in keeping with his previous form than the market support. According to jockey Fran Berry, he’d been gelded between his second and third run but there was no improvement forthcoming and this, his fourth outing in all, confirms that he’s moderate. He looks a likely type to go to the sales at the end of the year but I wouldn’t like to be the jumps trainer that buys him! The betting for the 3m maiden hurdle was dominated by Rocket Boy and Dr Swanini but neither are genuine and it was no surprise to see a boil-over with a 20/1 winner. Some will make excuses for the Meade runner as he met some trouble but he’s not one to trust at a short price. Luca Brasi had apparently worn ear-plugs in his previous win at Kilbeggan and his headstrong tendencies were again in evidence as he tore off into the lead in the bumper. Running off the bends and doing plenty in front, he was never going to get home and the 6yo will need to settle much better to register another win.
Pointers: John Oxx saw a couple of fancied horses (Galiyan and Be Smart) disappoint here and it continued a poor run for the Curraghbeg trainer. He’s managed just 1 winner in the last fortnight (and just 4 in the month of June) at a time when a top flat yard should really be hitting its stride and a 1 from 14 hit-rate in group races this season is hardly encouraging. Katiyra will hope to get the show back on the road in the Oaks next week but the talented juvenile Arazan seems to have gone to ground as he missed his intended target in the Golden Fleece at Leopardstown last Wednesday.
Negatives: The weight of money that saw Galiyan backed from 3/1 early doors into 5/4 on course was hard to fathom and his sixth place finish in the 1m4f maiden was more in keeping with his previous form than the market support. According to jockey Fran Berry, he’d been gelded between his second and third run but there was no improvement forthcoming and this, his fourth outing in all, confirms that he’s moderate. He looks a likely type to go to the sales at the end of the year but I wouldn’t like to be the jumps trainer that buys him! The betting for the 3m maiden hurdle was dominated by Rocket Boy and Dr Swanini but neither are genuine and it was no surprise to see a boil-over with a 20/1 winner. Some will make excuses for the Meade runner as he met some trouble but he’s not one to trust at a short price. Luca Brasi had apparently worn ear-plugs in his previous win at Kilbeggan and his headstrong tendencies were again in evidence as he tore off into the lead in the bumper. Running off the bends and doing plenty in front, he was never going to get home and the 6yo will need to settle much better to register another win.
Pointers: John Oxx saw a couple of fancied horses (Galiyan and Be Smart) disappoint here and it continued a poor run for the Curraghbeg trainer. He’s managed just 1 winner in the last fortnight (and just 4 in the month of June) at a time when a top flat yard should really be hitting its stride and a 1 from 14 hit-rate in group races this season is hardly encouraging. Katiyra will hope to get the show back on the road in the Oaks next week but the talented juvenile Arazan seems to have gone to ground as he missed his intended target in the Golden Fleece at Leopardstown last Wednesday.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Meeting Review: Curragh Derby Weekend
Positives: With all 3 of her siblings being pattern winners, Shimah is bred in the purple and she lived up to the family tradition when spread-eagling her field in the Saoire Stakes. There’s every chance the Storm Cat filly is a pure 2yo speedster, and she certainly won’t want to go further than sprint trips, but she’s a serious juvenile and will take plenty of beating in the Phoenix Stakes over the same course and distance in late July – and that includes whatever Aidan O’Brien runs! Con Collins was always keen to plot one up for a handicap at this meeting, and his daughter Tracey has proved no different in sending out Lady Schmuck [WON 11/2 - Tipperary, 7/8/08] to land a decent 5f handicap off 69. Given that Michael Hussey had the unusual luxury in a race of this nature of taking a peak over his shoulder a furlong down, a hike of 9lbs to 78 is hardly going to stop her and she will be a leading player in this year’s Rockingham on July 12th. Headford View [WON 11/2 - Dundalk, 30/8/08] [WON 4/1 - Dundalk, 15/9/08] [WON 7/2 - Dundalk, 7/11/08] was a fair fourth in the 50-80 handicap over 7f and is consistent in her grade – she can win a little race on faster ground than prevailed over the weekend. With a Killarney formline that tied in with 3 subsequent winners (Tiffany Diamond now rated 100, Polka Dot now rated 66 and Jumbo Rio now rated 82), Ballygologue looked well-treated off 80 in the 3yo 10f handicap. In the end it was the drop in trip that caught the Stack filly out as she was beaten a length and a quarter and never nearer. She looks a surefire winner back over 1m4f plus. As is often the case, College Scholar struggled as a 3yo sprinter when trained by Mick Channon last term but he looks to have got a new lease of life with Liam McAteer. The 4yo ran a big race when sixth in the Scurry and has dropped to a career-low mark of 77, having been rated as high as 92 when a three-time winner as a juvenile in England. His trainer does well with this sort of cast-off and his mark will allow him to be placed to good effect in lesser company.
Negatives: Timari must be working the house down at Curraghbeg as he’s been sent off at 3/1 or shorter in each of his 4 starts to date but he yet to get within a length of winning. He had excuses as his rider dropped his whip in the closing stages of the 10f maiden but whether through lack of ability or attitude, he’s one to swerve. Jim Bolger’s aggressive approach to placing his horses suits some of his inmates (see Approach, New) but not even his staunchest supporters would say his decision to run Finsceal Beo in the Pretty Polly saw the horse to best effect. I’ve always felt that the filly was a horse that needed time between races; she’s the type who gives you everything when she hits the front and generally shows the full range of her superiority over her rivals – her wins in the Boussac and Newmarket Guineas are evidence of this. As such, she takes a lot out of herself and doesn’t want a number of quick races in succession and the way her form tailed off after 3 races in 21 days last May lends support to this theory. Bolger seemed to have her back to her best when an excellent second to Duke Of Marmalade in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and she followed that up with a good run in the Queen Anne where she had looked slightly unlucky. Running her just 11 days after Ascot on ground that doesn’t suit and over a trip that stretches her stamina was hardly the wisest move and I fear she may been done for the season unless she gets a long break before her next outing. Contest is another horse who may struggle to rediscover his early season form for the second year in a row – he was well punted from a morning prices of 14/1 into 6/1 on course in the Sapphire Stakes but ran a flat race, beating just one rival home. He may simply be an early season type.
Pointers: Anna Pavlova [WON Haydock, 5/7 - 5/2] probably isn’t Group 1 class but her third-placed run in the Pretty Polly brought her form figures with cut in the ground to:2111212113; she can win again on a soft surface when slightly dropped in grade. Settigano is another who likes to get his toe in and the 5yo produced an excellent weight-carrying performance to win the mile premier handicap. His record with cut now reads:32351225211 and has been a fine advert for his talented trainer – a step up to listed class beckons. Rock Moss became the twelfth 3yo winner of the Scurry in 15 years and there is certainly a case for following the younger runners blind in this race. He also supplied Jim Bolger with his fourth winner in the race since 2001 while Miss Gorica became the fifth Joanna Morgan-trained runner (from a total of six horses) to place here in recent times. Queen Althea [WON Dundalk, 12/7/08 - 11/2] looked an interesting runner in 2m handicap as a 6lb hike for her last win in a competitive race looked lenient. However, not for the first time, she may not have enjoyed going right-handed and since her first career win (her early figures are disregarded as she was ‘finding her feet at the time) at Killarney last September, her form figures going clockwise read:14750, with the sole win coming off 52 in a Roscommon handicap – she’s now rated 75 so was a complete blot on that occasion. Conversely, her figures on left-handed tracks since she found her feet are:11211 with the only defeat against the progressive Rocky’s Choice who completed a three-timer in that win. It would be no surprise to see her bounce back at a left-handed course.
Negatives: Timari must be working the house down at Curraghbeg as he’s been sent off at 3/1 or shorter in each of his 4 starts to date but he yet to get within a length of winning. He had excuses as his rider dropped his whip in the closing stages of the 10f maiden but whether through lack of ability or attitude, he’s one to swerve. Jim Bolger’s aggressive approach to placing his horses suits some of his inmates (see Approach, New) but not even his staunchest supporters would say his decision to run Finsceal Beo in the Pretty Polly saw the horse to best effect. I’ve always felt that the filly was a horse that needed time between races; she’s the type who gives you everything when she hits the front and generally shows the full range of her superiority over her rivals – her wins in the Boussac and Newmarket Guineas are evidence of this. As such, she takes a lot out of herself and doesn’t want a number of quick races in succession and the way her form tailed off after 3 races in 21 days last May lends support to this theory. Bolger seemed to have her back to her best when an excellent second to Duke Of Marmalade in the Tattersalls Gold Cup and she followed that up with a good run in the Queen Anne where she had looked slightly unlucky. Running her just 11 days after Ascot on ground that doesn’t suit and over a trip that stretches her stamina was hardly the wisest move and I fear she may been done for the season unless she gets a long break before her next outing. Contest is another horse who may struggle to rediscover his early season form for the second year in a row – he was well punted from a morning prices of 14/1 into 6/1 on course in the Sapphire Stakes but ran a flat race, beating just one rival home. He may simply be an early season type.
Pointers: Anna Pavlova [WON Haydock, 5/7 - 5/2] probably isn’t Group 1 class but her third-placed run in the Pretty Polly brought her form figures with cut in the ground to:2111212113; she can win again on a soft surface when slightly dropped in grade. Settigano is another who likes to get his toe in and the 5yo produced an excellent weight-carrying performance to win the mile premier handicap. His record with cut now reads:32351225211 and has been a fine advert for his talented trainer – a step up to listed class beckons. Rock Moss became the twelfth 3yo winner of the Scurry in 15 years and there is certainly a case for following the younger runners blind in this race. He also supplied Jim Bolger with his fourth winner in the race since 2001 while Miss Gorica became the fifth Joanna Morgan-trained runner (from a total of six horses) to place here in recent times. Queen Althea [WON Dundalk, 12/7/08 - 11/2] looked an interesting runner in 2m handicap as a 6lb hike for her last win in a competitive race looked lenient. However, not for the first time, she may not have enjoyed going right-handed and since her first career win (her early figures are disregarded as she was ‘finding her feet at the time) at Killarney last September, her form figures going clockwise read:14750, with the sole win coming off 52 in a Roscommon handicap – she’s now rated 75 so was a complete blot on that occasion. Conversely, her figures on left-handed tracks since she found her feet are:11211 with the only defeat against the progressive Rocky’s Choice who completed a three-timer in that win. It would be no surprise to see her bounce back at a left-handed course.
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Weekend NAP - June 21st
Down Royal 4.05 - Ragged Staff
Last Time: Mourinho, Won @ 11/10
Season to date: + 4.9
Last Time: Mourinho, Won @ 11/10
Season to date: + 4.9
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Meeting Review: Roscommon - June 8th, 2008
Positives: The opening 7f maiden was hardly the strongest affair but Hidden Door caught the eye in coming from off the pace to grab third. The other horses involved in the finish were all on the pace throughout and also had the benefit of experience, whereas the Jessica Harrington runner was making her debut. On breeding (by Montjeu) she’ll enjoy going up in trip and you’d expect one from this yard to improve a lot for the run. Emmet McNamara could be criticised for easing his mount Nortburn near the line in the 7f handicap and allowing Funatfuntasia [WON Bellewstown, 5/7 - 11/2] to get up on the inside but even so the Joanna Morgan-trained 4yo would have been an unlucky loser. Travelling much the better than his rivals, he didn’t get the run of the race but picked up well when seeing daylight. Morgan says that he doesn’t do much in front so he might benefit from the strong handling of a senior jockey as he had here but he won’t be getting much of a hike for this and can win again soon.
Negatives: Signora Frasi was a disappointing market leader in the maiden and is starting to look tripless – she didn’t seem to stay 7f here whereas last time out she’d shaped as if wanting a mile. With her connections, the Indian Ridge filly will continue to be favoured in the betting but it will be a bad race that she wins. Unwritten Rule was inexplicably backed into 3/1 joint-favouritism in the 1m4f handicap despite his trainer having said he didn’t stay the trip last time. He looks regressive and a mark of 102 seriously over-estimates his ability. I quite liked Silent Wind in the 2m handicap hurdle, not only because he seemed to have gotten off lightly with a 9lb hike for an easy win last time but also because his connections have done well with this type of summer horse in the past (see Buster, Barrack or Folly, Cunningham’s). The 106-rated flat horse jumped well but his old tail-swishing antics returned (he earned the immortal formbook comment ‘swished his tail vigorously throughout final 2f’ in Germany in June 2005) as he was asked to battle up the straight and certainly isn’t one to trust. 2 wins from 13 starts is a disappointing return for a horse of his ability and while more forcing tactics might suit, he looks a type who may want to win on the bridle which is obviously difficult in the competitive type of race he’ll be running in.
Pointers: As suggested previously, the form of the Curragh handicap won by Captain Cole on 2,000 Guineas has worked out well and Ragged Staff gave it another boost in landing the valuable 1m4f handicap. He might well be able to win again as he still looks well-in on some of his 3yo form but there are a few horses that finished behind who are also of interest, granted their conditions. The third Phantom Lad ran a big race at 20/1 and took his first time out record to:3323. Head Of The River dead-heated for fourth and continues to run well in this sort of race – the 4yo needs cut to show his best though and has never finished in the first three on ground quicker than good-yielding. The other dead-heater Definate Spectacle is especially interesting as he’s dropped to a mark he can certainly win off – he’ll prove best at 9 or 10f and runs especially well at Leopardstown where his career figures read:212014. Grantsville was a well-beaten eighth but I wouldn’t give up on her just yet – the former listed winner is rated just 75 and simply doesn’t stay this trip. 10f would be right up her street. What a trainer this Joanna Morgan is! The aforementioned Funatfuntasia formed half of an across-the-card double with Dbest at Cork (whose form figures at Mallow now read:1111) and what amazes is her ability to extract further improvement from seemingly exposed handicappers. Miss Gorica found in hard to win after a couple of wide-margin victories last term but the drop to 6f worked the oracle at Navan on Friday evening and I’d be particularly interested in Alamgiyr when he gets a handicap mark over hurdles. Dbest is likely to try to exploit a ludicrous flat mark of 55 in the coming weeks and while Raise Your Heart was his own worse enemy by not settling over hurdles, his cruising speed will surely serve him well when returning to the level.
Negatives: Signora Frasi was a disappointing market leader in the maiden and is starting to look tripless – she didn’t seem to stay 7f here whereas last time out she’d shaped as if wanting a mile. With her connections, the Indian Ridge filly will continue to be favoured in the betting but it will be a bad race that she wins. Unwritten Rule was inexplicably backed into 3/1 joint-favouritism in the 1m4f handicap despite his trainer having said he didn’t stay the trip last time. He looks regressive and a mark of 102 seriously over-estimates his ability. I quite liked Silent Wind in the 2m handicap hurdle, not only because he seemed to have gotten off lightly with a 9lb hike for an easy win last time but also because his connections have done well with this type of summer horse in the past (see Buster, Barrack or Folly, Cunningham’s). The 106-rated flat horse jumped well but his old tail-swishing antics returned (he earned the immortal formbook comment ‘swished his tail vigorously throughout final 2f’ in Germany in June 2005) as he was asked to battle up the straight and certainly isn’t one to trust. 2 wins from 13 starts is a disappointing return for a horse of his ability and while more forcing tactics might suit, he looks a type who may want to win on the bridle which is obviously difficult in the competitive type of race he’ll be running in.
Pointers: As suggested previously, the form of the Curragh handicap won by Captain Cole on 2,000 Guineas has worked out well and Ragged Staff gave it another boost in landing the valuable 1m4f handicap. He might well be able to win again as he still looks well-in on some of his 3yo form but there are a few horses that finished behind who are also of interest, granted their conditions. The third Phantom Lad ran a big race at 20/1 and took his first time out record to:3323. Head Of The River dead-heated for fourth and continues to run well in this sort of race – the 4yo needs cut to show his best though and has never finished in the first three on ground quicker than good-yielding. The other dead-heater Definate Spectacle is especially interesting as he’s dropped to a mark he can certainly win off – he’ll prove best at 9 or 10f and runs especially well at Leopardstown where his career figures read:212014. Grantsville was a well-beaten eighth but I wouldn’t give up on her just yet – the former listed winner is rated just 75 and simply doesn’t stay this trip. 10f would be right up her street. What a trainer this Joanna Morgan is! The aforementioned Funatfuntasia formed half of an across-the-card double with Dbest at Cork (whose form figures at Mallow now read:1111) and what amazes is her ability to extract further improvement from seemingly exposed handicappers. Miss Gorica found in hard to win after a couple of wide-margin victories last term but the drop to 6f worked the oracle at Navan on Friday evening and I’d be particularly interested in Alamgiyr when he gets a handicap mark over hurdles. Dbest is likely to try to exploit a ludicrous flat mark of 55 in the coming weeks and while Raise Your Heart was his own worse enemy by not settling over hurdles, his cruising speed will surely serve him well when returning to the level.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Meeting Review: Leopardstown - June 4th, 2008
Positives: Despite having a few quirks (he missed the break on debut and was reluctant to load here), Three Way Stretch looked a decent two-year-old in the winning the 6f maiden (traditionally a good race with recent winners including Elletelle and Holy Roman Emperor) and it would be no surprise to see him making his mark in pattern company. The form of the race can be cribbed as some of the fancied horses ran a bit below par but the fifth Comadoir and the seventh Carlito Brigante look solid yardsticks, and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate it as the runner-up was always likely to improve from his first run where he missed the break and the third has been well fancied in 2 decent races so far. His trainer is not renowned for having classy types in his yards, but this half-brother to Moon Unit looks just that and his connections should help his price in the future. Show Blessed [WON Naas, 9/7/08 - 6/1] showed up well over a trip short of his best in the 9f handicap won by Adare Manor and can strike over a distance of 10f or further. His trainer’s horses tend to run themselves into to form before winning rather than popping up out of the blue and the 8yo would also be interesting over fences off a mark of 118 – his second to Wishwillow Lord (now rated 138) at Tipperary last October looks solid form, especially with Clew Bay Cove (now 130) and Kranji (now 124) chasing the pair home.
Negatives: For the fourth time in 5 completed starts, Veidhleadoir filled a place in the 9f maiden and looked a tricky ride in the process. Not for the first time, she was well fancied and even though maidens start to get progressively (or is that regressively?!) weaker from this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be convinced she wants to put her head in front. Ferneley won a very soft Group 3 at the course last time and he’s going to be difficult to place with his penalty from now on – while not a dog, he is unreliable and can race with the choke out. 3 wins from 14 starts is hardly an impressive tally for a horse of his obvious ability.
Pointers: Mustameet is a credit to his connections and improved on his already spectacular first time out record by winning the Glencairn Stakes – his form figures on seasonal debuts now reads:1d11211 with the sole defeat coming when he hit his head on leaving the stalls in the 2006 Gladness. I really hope he stays in training as an 8yo! Power Of Future is another horse with an enviable first time out record that now reads:5112 after her neck defeat in the 2m handicap - the fifth was in a decent Newmarket maiden when she was a 33/1 second string. She is certainly handicapped to win a race on her old English form but just as she did in last year’s November Handicap, she didn’t get home over the 16f where her figures now read:0852. Her 3 career wins have come between 1m4f and 1m6f and the 5yo would be interesting if freshened up for a race over that sort of distance. In the same race, winner Queen Althea provided a notable form boost for a race she was fifth in at the Curragh on Guineas weekend and the horses that finished ahead of her would be of interest in the coming weeks. With the winner of that event, Captain Cole, apparently out for 6 months with ‘a leg’, the runner-up Ragged Staff [WON Roscommon, 8/6/08 - 3/1 ](entered at Roscommon this coming weekend, a track where he has twice run well) and the fourth Kilshannig look the best representatives of the form. Fran Berry rode a fine treble on the card and has generally been riding brilliantly lately, leaving things very tight between himself, Pat Smullen and Johnny Murtagh at the head of the jockeys’ championship. With Murtagh likely to be out of the country riding at the likes of Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood over the summer, he probably won’t have enough rides to take the title so this could come down to a scrap between Berry and the reigning champion Smullen. Smullen however is a general 11/8 for the prize while Berry is 10/1 and it doesn’t take a genius to work out where the value lies.
Negatives: For the fourth time in 5 completed starts, Veidhleadoir filled a place in the 9f maiden and looked a tricky ride in the process. Not for the first time, she was well fancied and even though maidens start to get progressively (or is that regressively?!) weaker from this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be convinced she wants to put her head in front. Ferneley won a very soft Group 3 at the course last time and he’s going to be difficult to place with his penalty from now on – while not a dog, he is unreliable and can race with the choke out. 3 wins from 14 starts is hardly an impressive tally for a horse of his obvious ability.
Pointers: Mustameet is a credit to his connections and improved on his already spectacular first time out record by winning the Glencairn Stakes – his form figures on seasonal debuts now reads:1d11211 with the sole defeat coming when he hit his head on leaving the stalls in the 2006 Gladness. I really hope he stays in training as an 8yo! Power Of Future is another horse with an enviable first time out record that now reads:5112 after her neck defeat in the 2m handicap - the fifth was in a decent Newmarket maiden when she was a 33/1 second string. She is certainly handicapped to win a race on her old English form but just as she did in last year’s November Handicap, she didn’t get home over the 16f where her figures now read:0852. Her 3 career wins have come between 1m4f and 1m6f and the 5yo would be interesting if freshened up for a race over that sort of distance. In the same race, winner Queen Althea provided a notable form boost for a race she was fifth in at the Curragh on Guineas weekend and the horses that finished ahead of her would be of interest in the coming weeks. With the winner of that event, Captain Cole, apparently out for 6 months with ‘a leg’, the runner-up Ragged Staff [WON Roscommon, 8/6/08 - 3/1 ](entered at Roscommon this coming weekend, a track where he has twice run well) and the fourth Kilshannig look the best representatives of the form. Fran Berry rode a fine treble on the card and has generally been riding brilliantly lately, leaving things very tight between himself, Pat Smullen and Johnny Murtagh at the head of the jockeys’ championship. With Murtagh likely to be out of the country riding at the likes of Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood over the summer, he probably won’t have enough rides to take the title so this could come down to a scrap between Berry and the reigning champion Smullen. Smullen however is a general 11/8 for the prize while Berry is 10/1 and it doesn’t take a genius to work out where the value lies.
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