William Hill Troytown Handicap Chase, Navan October 23rd – The Key Trends

- The last 9 winners carried no more than 10-9 to victory. In the same period, all winners were in receipt of at least 18lbs from the top-weight.
- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.
- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter.
- I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.
- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.
- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.
- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.
- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.
- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance.