Naas 3.10 - Ballycullen Boy
Last Week: Brave Betsy won @ 6/4
Running Total: -3.5
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Saturday, February 16, 2008
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Meeting Review: Leopardstown - February 10th, 2008
Positives: Tony Martin’s appeal against a 16lbs hike in the ratings for Psycho’s last win was made look ridiculous as the 7yo looked like hacking up in the 2m handicap hurdle before falling at the final hurdle. He got a further 9lbs for this run but it won’t matter as he’s unfeasibly well-handicapped. Agus A Vic [WON Punchestown, 26/4 - 5/1] confirmed my belief that he’s the best hunter chaser around in winning the Raymond Smith Memorial under Jason McKeown. His jockey may not be stylish but he gets the job done and I hope he takes his chance in the Cheltenham Foxhunters. Arthur Moore doesn’t have too many bumper winners but Jaffonien landed the closing event in taking style. The French-bred beat all the right horses with gambled on Bantry Commons and form pick Themoonandsixpence filling the frame and he looks a serious recruit.
Negatives: Temlett and Cork All Star (who continues to jump poorly) are similar types in that their reputations precede them and both were disappointing in their respective novice hurdles. Neither is likely to offer value in the betting in the near future. Big Zeb made what looked like a winning move in the Moriarty only to be caught out by a staying on J’y Vole. For a horse of his ability, his win to run ratio is poor (just 2 wins in 10 starts) and my gut feeling is he has a hole in him and will continue to find ways to lose. Snowy Morning is not a bad horse by any stretch of the imagination – he’s won more than half of his 13 starts after all. However, how he was promoted to Grand National favouritism after his run in the Hennessy is beyond me. The 8yo may be well-in after being hiked to a mark of 155 but he doesn’t jump anywhere near well enough to win over the big obstacles. In the longer term, he could well become a twilight horse.
Pointers: Martin Mooney rode Won In The Dark [WON Punchestown, 26/4/08 - 4/1] as if Temlett was the only horse he had to beat in the juvenile hurdle and was keen to keep tabs on the Mullins horse. In retrospect, Mooney was on by far the best horse in the race and he ridden his mount for a turn-of-foot, I have little doubt he would have emerged on top. In winning the Moriarty, J’y Vole became the ninth winner in 11 renewals to have had no more than 3 chase starts before running here. Had I known that, I may not have wasted my money on Sky’s The Limit! The Hennessy continues to be a strong trends race and we should concentrate on proven Grade 1 horses with course form and proven over 3m, of which The Listener was one.
Negatives: Temlett and Cork All Star (who continues to jump poorly) are similar types in that their reputations precede them and both were disappointing in their respective novice hurdles. Neither is likely to offer value in the betting in the near future. Big Zeb made what looked like a winning move in the Moriarty only to be caught out by a staying on J’y Vole. For a horse of his ability, his win to run ratio is poor (just 2 wins in 10 starts) and my gut feeling is he has a hole in him and will continue to find ways to lose. Snowy Morning is not a bad horse by any stretch of the imagination – he’s won more than half of his 13 starts after all. However, how he was promoted to Grand National favouritism after his run in the Hennessy is beyond me. The 8yo may be well-in after being hiked to a mark of 155 but he doesn’t jump anywhere near well enough to win over the big obstacles. In the longer term, he could well become a twilight horse.
Pointers: Martin Mooney rode Won In The Dark [WON Punchestown, 26/4/08 - 4/1] as if Temlett was the only horse he had to beat in the juvenile hurdle and was keen to keep tabs on the Mullins horse. In retrospect, Mooney was on by far the best horse in the race and he ridden his mount for a turn-of-foot, I have little doubt he would have emerged on top. In winning the Moriarty, J’y Vole became the ninth winner in 11 renewals to have had no more than 3 chase starts before running here. Had I known that, I may not have wasted my money on Sky’s The Limit! The Hennessy continues to be a strong trends race and we should concentrate on proven Grade 1 horses with course form and proven over 3m, of which The Listener was one.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Sunday, February 3, 2008
Meeting Review: Punchestown - February 3rd, 2008
Positives: Martin Brassil’s new acquisition Turtle Dubh was a warm order in the 3m handicap hurdle and was backed from a morning prices of 16/1 into an SP of 6/1. Connections are rarely far off when the money is down and he ran a decent race to finish fourth with the trip just beyond him. A rating of 117 isn’t harsh and he will be winning soon over a shorter distance. Pound for pound (and as a former jockey, she’s probably the lightest around!), Joanna Morgan is probably the best trainer in Ireland and she does exceptionally well with a batch of horse that could be at best described as moderate handicappers. But in Raise Your Heart, the Meath woman has a smart novice hurdler and the 5yo is much better than his finishing position of fourth in the Grade 2. He travelled like much the best horse in the race, in fact probably too well as he expended too much energy early, and it looked a matter of ‘how far?’ turning in as he hit 1.26 in-running. However, his trainer’s stamina concerns (Morgan said that ‘two miles on heavy ground is about as far as he wants to go’ in the Racing Post beforehand) were proven correct as he found little in the closing stages. Blessed with a very smart turn-of-foot for a jumper, he will be winning good races on better ground if this hasn’t left its mark.
Negatives: Lynott’s form figures over hurdles read:464473 and while not a dodge, the 10f flat winner just doesn’t see out 2m over sticks. It’s hard to see him winning a race in this sphere and given his capacity to travel well in his races, the 5yo presents a good in-running lay opportunity. Considering Newmill had beaten only 3 horses home in his last 4 starts, he looked a very short price in the morning and it was no surprise to see him drift out to an SP of 15/8. I strongly suspect the form of his last run at Gowran is nothing short of worthless with Nickname looking well below-par and Kicking King, well who knows? He was probably the luckiest Champion Chase winner of all time in a race that completely fell apart and rating of 160 seriously over-estimates his current ability level. With his reputation, he’s often sent off a shorter price than he should be and he makes little appeal for any future race. It looked as though Heads Onthe Ground produced a nice trial for Cheltenham when second in the cross-country chase but he’s never been the toughest in a finish and this brought his winner/runner-up scorecard to 3-11. Off a bigger weight in March, I expect him to struggle.
Pointers: Not for the first time this season, Eddie Harty made the right decision in pulling Captain Cee Bee out of a big race. Sometimes trainers get panicky when a horse in going well at home and simply feel the need to run even though conditions may be totally against them. As a US-bred who's best form has all be on decent ground, Harty made the right call on what was really bad ground and he deserves to be rewarded for his patience. Tom Taaffe had being going through a poor run lately but there were signs of his string turning a corner of late with Emotional Moment coming second at Leopardstown last week and the previously out-of-form Tumbling Dice going close in the Grade 2 chase. Better times could be on the horizon. Ruby Walsh gave Arbor Supreme a master ride to come second in the Grand National Trial, and that further improved Willie Mullins’ good recent record in the race. With his last 6 runners, he has had a winner and 4 placed horses.
Negatives: Lynott’s form figures over hurdles read:464473 and while not a dodge, the 10f flat winner just doesn’t see out 2m over sticks. It’s hard to see him winning a race in this sphere and given his capacity to travel well in his races, the 5yo presents a good in-running lay opportunity. Considering Newmill had beaten only 3 horses home in his last 4 starts, he looked a very short price in the morning and it was no surprise to see him drift out to an SP of 15/8. I strongly suspect the form of his last run at Gowran is nothing short of worthless with Nickname looking well below-par and Kicking King, well who knows? He was probably the luckiest Champion Chase winner of all time in a race that completely fell apart and rating of 160 seriously over-estimates his current ability level. With his reputation, he’s often sent off a shorter price than he should be and he makes little appeal for any future race. It looked as though Heads Onthe Ground produced a nice trial for Cheltenham when second in the cross-country chase but he’s never been the toughest in a finish and this brought his winner/runner-up scorecard to 3-11. Off a bigger weight in March, I expect him to struggle.
Pointers: Not for the first time this season, Eddie Harty made the right decision in pulling Captain Cee Bee out of a big race. Sometimes trainers get panicky when a horse in going well at home and simply feel the need to run even though conditions may be totally against them. As a US-bred who's best form has all be on decent ground, Harty made the right call on what was really bad ground and he deserves to be rewarded for his patience. Tom Taaffe had being going through a poor run lately but there were signs of his string turning a corner of late with Emotional Moment coming second at Leopardstown last week and the previously out-of-form Tumbling Dice going close in the Grade 2 chase. Better times could be on the horizon. Ruby Walsh gave Arbor Supreme a master ride to come second in the Grand National Trial, and that further improved Willie Mullins’ good recent record in the race. With his last 6 runners, he has had a winner and 4 placed horses.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
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