Fairyhouse Easter ‘Festival’ Meeting Review – March 22nd – 25th

Positives: Emmet Mullins is a talented young claimer but he gave Galant Ferns [WON Limerick 6/4/08 - 5/1] too much to do in the first of Saturday’s two bumpers. The 4yo mare was held up off a slow pace in a race that was dominated by Astute Approach and while she may not have won under more positive tactics, she would certainly have given the winner something to think about. Shirley Casper was one of the best bumper horses around last term when she placed in two championship events and her hurdles debut on her first outing in 11 months was eye-catching in Sunday’s Grade 3 mares’ race. The 7yo travelled smoothly into the race and looked the winner turning in before lack of fitness caught her out. Her move to Edward O’Grady’s stable can only be viewed as a positive with her former trainer Philip Fenton enduring a nightmare run all season. Enter The Indian landed the novice handicap hurdle narrowly from Northern Alliance with Follow The Plan and Boleybawn Quikstar filling the places. The front four pulled 9ls clear of the remainder and the form looks hot and it’s worth remembering Bob’s Pride won last year’s race before going on to Punchestown success. Nothing Horner Woods has done a racecourse thus far has suggested he’s anything other than a future star – the winning pointer ran a fine race when second in his maiden hurdle and will benefit from the experience. Royal County Star was a blatant non-stayer when second to Hear The Echo in the meeting’s feature but a less obvious runner that failed to get home was Maureen Danagher’s Ballycullen Boy who finished eighth. The 8yo showed up well until weakening four out and has come back from his winter break in good form as he showed when chasing home Cooldine before this. He may prove best at just short of 3 miles and the Galway Plate looks a likely target. Glenstal Abbey ran a good fifth for Aidan O’Brien in one of the hottest flat maidens of last season at Leopardstown and again showed plenty of ability on his first start in almost a year when fourth to Paco Jack in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle. He can only improve from this. It’s difficult to draw any encouragement from the 80l defeat suffered by Definate Spectacle in the Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle but he was similarly stuffed on his early starts last year before bouncing back to win a decent race at Cork over sticks. I’d expect the same improvement this year as he’s been hobdayed and it’s the flat where I’d look for him to strike as he’s dropped to a mark of 86 having won off 93 and 95 in the past. Kells Castle is no star but having 4 low grade jumps handicaps he’s a rare consistent type in this sort of grade. The 6yo showed up well in the 3m1f handicap chase on Monday before a lack of both stamina and race fitness caught him out. He’s likely to prove best around 2m4f on decent ground and has 15lbs in hand over fences on his current hurdles mark.

Negatives: The Fairyhouse executive deserve the biggest negative for a meeting that was disappointing overall. The close proximity of Cheltenham and the early Easter didn’t help but there was no need to dilute the fixture to 4 days and Monday’s card was one of the worst overall day’s racing I’ve seen for a big day in years and that’s not even to discuss the farce of the opening match between Kalderon and Earth Magic. Since chasing home De Valira, Catch Me and Sizing Europe at Leopardstown’s Christmas meeting, Rare Bob has been disappointing. He keeps finding ways to lose and placed for the fifth consecutive time in the 3m novice handicap hurdle. He’s certainly one to oppose if turning up at a short price in a weak maiden. Woodbine Willie travelled well in the Grade 2 novice hurdle only to find little. This isn’t the first time he’s promised more than he’s delivered and while he can’t be held responsible for his yard’s poor run of form, he always seems to go off a shorter price than he should. Big Zeb is a seriously talented horse but he seems to need to win his races on the bridle and the fact that he was out-battled by Conna Castle, who’s hardly the most resolute, was worrying. 2 wins from 11 starts is a poor return for a horse of his ability. Bouchard has never won a race of any nature and was well fancied before running a poor fifth in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle. He’s another who isn’t in love with winning but doesn’t mind reaching the frame.

Pointers: Leonard Whitmore may have a small string but he can train them. His stable stars Wishwillow Lord and Brave Right both made the frame in Tuesday’s big race and his runners are often underestimate in the betting. Wishwillow Lord could be a serious 2m chaser if he could get his jumping straightened out and if he hadn’t gotten into the butt of few in the Dan Moore, the 9yo may have given Schindlers Hunt a race. Paul Carberry may be the key as his record aboard the gelding reads:15111. The Irish staying novice hurdlers look a serious bunch and the frame-filling efforts of our runners in the Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle was followed up by excellent efforts by Cooldine and Chasing Cars here. Next year’s novice chases should make for interesting viewing. Drunken Disorderly has produced some awful jumping performances this season but paradoxically he may need the minimum trip to show his best. His record over 17f or shorter reads:1211142.

Weekend NAP - March 30th/31st

Curragh Sunday 4.30 - Tis Mighty

The Lincoln, The Curragh March 30th - The Key Trends

- Kevin Prendergast has a poor record with just 2 placed horses from 17 runners since 1997.
- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 81 and 92.
- All 10 winners since 1998 have been seven or younger.
- Plenty of 4yos will take their chance here – 95 have since 1997 and that’s by far the biggest representation from a single age group – and if you want to back one of the youngsters in here make sure it’s a particular type. The quartet of winning 4yos since 1998 (Tarry Flynn, Tolpuddle, Bawaader and Deauville Vision) were all unexposed as 3yos, having just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the year rated over 100 and competing in pattern races. If a 4yo is to win this race, they really need to have plenty of scope to improve off their current mark and anything that’s had a number of runs in the handicaps as a 3yo is likely to be weighted up to the hilt of their ability.
- Only 1 winner since 1997 has carried more than 9-0 to victory.
- Oppose horses drawn in the middle third of the field. 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn with 8 stalls of either rail and it’s been a similar story with the placed horses. In last season’s field of 25, the first four home were drawn 21, 5, 18 and 24 respectively.
- With testing ground likely (the official going hasn’t been faster than yielding-soft since 1998), it’s very hard for prominent racers to get on a lead and hold it with 20-plus runners snapping at their heels. Since 1998, 4 winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 3 tracked the pace. In the same time frame, only 5 runners who showed early pace made the frame and none finished better than third.
- Proven stamina is a plus. All winners since 1998 had already won over at least 8 furlongs while 8 of the last 11 winners were proven beyond the bare mile, including 4 that had won over hurdles.
- I’d also like a horse with form in big fields and this is especially the case for an older horse. With the exception of 3 of the unexposed 4yo winners, all the others were proven in big field handicaps.

Weekend NAP - March 22nd/23rd

Fairyhouse Sunday 2.45 - Brave Betsy

Last Week: Give It Time won @ 6/4

Season to date: -1

Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle, Fairyhouse March 25th - Key Trends

- 9 of the last 1o winners were rated 120 or lower. The exception was Macs Joy who had a mark of 123 and was rated 158 on his last Irish run before his untimely demise.
- Racing weight is a very important. Again, Macs Joy was a trends buster carrying 11-0 to victory but all the other winners since 1998 carried 10-4 or less.
- The 9yo Emmpatt was a rare seasoned campaigner to land this prize last term but the nine winners before him were aged between five and seven.
- David Casey has ridden the winner four times in the last 9 renewals. His overall record in the race since 1999 reads:114132F81.
- Leopardstown handicap hurdles have been a fine guide to this race in recent years. In 2001 and 2002, Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here. Pierse Hurdle runner-up Brave Right holds an entry this time around and is probably better racing right-handed. The 2m handicap hurdle run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ in March has been an even better guide though with 4 of the last 9 winners have had their most recent outing there. The third in this year’s renewal, Raise Your Heart, looked an unlucky loser on his handicap debut.
- Preference would have to be for a horse that’s been trained for the race. Wishwillow Lord had run 5 times since January 1st before winning here in 2006 but none of the other last 9 winners had more than 3 runs since the turn of the year.
- There has been a shift towards unexposed runners winning in the last 7 years. None of the winners since 2001 had more than 4 runs in handicap hurdles.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners earned the in-running comment ‘held-up.’

Weekend NAP - March 15th/16th

Limerick 3.10 - Give It Time

Irish Grand National, Fairyhouse March 24th - The Key Trends

- 8 of the last 9 winners carried less than 10-12 to victory.
- No horse rated higher than 136 has won in the last decade.
- All of the last 10 winners were aged between 7 and 10. 7yos and 8yos have won 7 of the last 10 renewals.
- Of the last 9 winners, all that had completed the course in their most recent start finished in the first six. 7 of that 9 made the frame last time out.
- All the last 10 winners had run in the previous 7 weeks.
- A number of recent winners have had plenty of runs over the course of the season but all have been lightly campaigned since the turn of the year. The last 9 winners have all run 3 or fewer times since January 1st.
- Unexposed handicappers dominate. None of the last 10 winners had more than 8 outings in handicap chases.
- 7 of the last 8 Irish-trained winners of the race had placed form at Fairyhouse at worst.
- Proven stamina is a massive plus. 9 of the last 10 winners had won over 3 miles before winning here while 5 of the nine had won beyond the bare 24 furlongs.

Weekend NAP - March 8th

Gowran Park 5.00 - Capo Di Capi

Last Week: Well Tutored, won @ 3/1

To date: - 1.5

Weekend NAP - March 1st/2nd

Leopardstown 3.55 - Well Tutored

Loss to date: - 4.5