- The weight trend here is very strong; only 1 of the last 10 winner carried more than 10-12 to victory while 28 of the 30 placed horses since 1999 have carried 11-0 or less.
- 8 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 125 and 136.
- 6yos and 7yos seriously out-perform older horses here; from 22% of the total runners since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners and 6 runners-up. Only 1 runner aged in double figures has placed since 2005.
- Of the last 9 winners to complete the course, none finished worse than seventh.
- Last year’s winner Hear The Echo was an extreme example of how lightly-raced have come to the fore here as he was having his first run since Christmas. The last 7 winners had no more than 2 outings since the turn of the year.
- Concentrate on unexposed handicappers as none of the last 10 winners had more than 8 runs in handicap chases.
For a more in-depth analysis of this topic, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Meeting Review: The Curragh, March 22nd
Positives: An esteemed paddock judge reliably informed me that King Ledley was light years ahead of the remainder on looks in the opener and so too it proved on the track as he bolted away from Chelsea Lately by over 4ls. His breeding is all American so better ground won’t be a problem and he looks the type to pick up another race or two, perhaps even a minor pattern contest, before the Ballydoyle mob unleash their better juveniles. My trends tell me it’s more or less impossible for a prominent racer to win the Lincoln (no winner or runner-up has been on the pace in the past decade) so the performance of Estrela Brage, who was mugged on the line having been up there throughout, has to be upgraded. The fact that his mark of 97 looked stiff (he been well beaten off the same rating last term) suggests he may have improved (wore cheek-pieces for the first time here) in the interim. Apparently he’s due to be sent over hurdles but this may tempt connections into a rethink as the 6yo may yet be able to win on the level. Sioduil was an eye-catcher the Birdcatcher meeting last term when running a screamer from a bad draw but most of her other form is only ordinary; however, the evidence of her run in the Madrid suggests she will be winning races if dropped back in trip. The little grey was right there at the furlong pole but emptied totally on the run to the line and finished only ninth, looking a blatant non-stayer. She’ll do much better back at 6f and the fact her trainer had her entered in the 6f handicap on this card too suggests he too believes the Oasis Dream filly may be a sprinter.
Negatives: Mad About You deserved to be odds-on for the Park Express but in hindsight her SP of 30/100 was pretty silly and she is one to be very wary of after managing only third. Her trainer had been so confident to give her as his best bet at Cheltenham Preview Night four weeks ago and the weight of money that came for her suggested he hadn’t left much to work on. Everything went right for her in the race itself as stable-mate Firey Red (the moral winner of the race who was sacrificed as pace-maker) pulled off the rail over 3 furlongs out to allow her through but despite having travelled supremely well, she never actually put her head in front and looked most unwilling. It’s worrying when a filly that finished placed behind the likes of Zarkava, Halfway To Heaven and Promising Lead does the same behind Oh Goodness Me and Firey Red, and the 4yo is one to leave alone next time, even with the blinkers back on. Another Weld horse with a dubious attitude is Mr Topaz, who despite looking well-in off 82 and being heavily-backed, couldn’t win the Madrid. Pat Smullen had the 3yo in the right place throughout but he ran around when asked to make his challenge and carried his head awkwardly, going down by a neck in the end. He’d done something very similar when winning narrowly at Cork last backend and I expect him to do so again; his placed form behind pattern performers Ryehill Dreamer and Vitruvian Man looks good in handicaps but he doesn’t have the will to win.
Pointers: Having got the Lincoln well and truly wrong I was delighted to see a few people used the trends to pick the winner; I’m not sure how, but well done anyway! In fairness, Pollen was an unexposed 4yo with a decent draw from a yard that won in the race with a similar type in Tolpuddle and the likelihood she would be held up was another plus. Though this looked a weak renewal beforehand, if she goes the way of the other winning 4yos she’ll be competing in pattern races before the season’s end. Some cut in the ground is important to her and she obviously likes it here (track form figures:411); she certainly didn’t impress in her condition beforehand so there may be improvement to come on that front. Jim Bolger is hardly renowned for having his string ready early in the season (just 2 winners from 42 runners in March since 2004) but he had a treble here and this term could well prove an exception to the norm. Eddie Lynam endured a sickener in the Lincoln but his yard has also hit the ground running with form figures over the weekend of:1633052850240, only two of which were returned single-figure prices. The sole winner, Mourinho, is likely to remain well-treated having won off 80 on Friday night and won’t mind stepping up in trip.
Negatives: Mad About You deserved to be odds-on for the Park Express but in hindsight her SP of 30/100 was pretty silly and she is one to be very wary of after managing only third. Her trainer had been so confident to give her as his best bet at Cheltenham Preview Night four weeks ago and the weight of money that came for her suggested he hadn’t left much to work on. Everything went right for her in the race itself as stable-mate Firey Red (the moral winner of the race who was sacrificed as pace-maker) pulled off the rail over 3 furlongs out to allow her through but despite having travelled supremely well, she never actually put her head in front and looked most unwilling. It’s worrying when a filly that finished placed behind the likes of Zarkava, Halfway To Heaven and Promising Lead does the same behind Oh Goodness Me and Firey Red, and the 4yo is one to leave alone next time, even with the blinkers back on. Another Weld horse with a dubious attitude is Mr Topaz, who despite looking well-in off 82 and being heavily-backed, couldn’t win the Madrid. Pat Smullen had the 3yo in the right place throughout but he ran around when asked to make his challenge and carried his head awkwardly, going down by a neck in the end. He’d done something very similar when winning narrowly at Cork last backend and I expect him to do so again; his placed form behind pattern performers Ryehill Dreamer and Vitruvian Man looks good in handicaps but he doesn’t have the will to win.
Pointers: Having got the Lincoln well and truly wrong I was delighted to see a few people used the trends to pick the winner; I’m not sure how, but well done anyway! In fairness, Pollen was an unexposed 4yo with a decent draw from a yard that won in the race with a similar type in Tolpuddle and the likelihood she would be held up was another plus. Though this looked a weak renewal beforehand, if she goes the way of the other winning 4yos she’ll be competing in pattern races before the season’s end. Some cut in the ground is important to her and she obviously likes it here (track form figures:411); she certainly didn’t impress in her condition beforehand so there may be improvement to come on that front. Jim Bolger is hardly renowned for having his string ready early in the season (just 2 winners from 42 runners in March since 2004) but he had a treble here and this term could well prove an exception to the norm. Eddie Lynam endured a sickener in the Lincoln but his yard has also hit the ground running with form figures over the weekend of:1633052850240, only two of which were returned single-figure prices. The sole winner, Mourinho, is likely to remain well-treated having won off 80 on Friday night and won’t mind stepping up in trip.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Weekend NAP - March 22nd
Curragh 4.15 - Silver Tide
Season to date: +1.25
This year's Lincoln looks a weak renewal and the top few in the betting look readily opposable: Designated Decoy (attitude), Rock And Roll Kid (trip) and Estrela Brage (badly weighted). A chance is taken on Silver Tide who is essentially a 9f specialist but my stats tell me that proven ability over further than the race distance is a positive and the strongly run mile will suit her ideally. A prep run at Dundalk should have her spot on and the 5yo is pretty consistent with cut. Of the others, I'd fear Crooked Throw and Pollen, though you're not getting many sweets with the latter's prices, especially considering that she flopped on her sole handicap run when fancied.
I'm loathe to tip an unraced horse in any race but there are sound reasons for suggesting Cluain Alainn in the last at the Curragh. The likely favourite Toraidhe is one to get as he looked to have a most unwilling attitude in 2 starts last term and his yard habitually start slowly; Bolger has had just 2 winners from 42 runners in March in the last 4 years. John Oxx on the other hand loves to target this race and his runners since 2004 have ran:12341172. Cluain Alainn is from the family of Ridgewood Pearl and I hope he can kick-start what could be a pretty special year for the Oxx three-year-olds.
Season to date: +1.25
This year's Lincoln looks a weak renewal and the top few in the betting look readily opposable: Designated Decoy (attitude), Rock And Roll Kid (trip) and Estrela Brage (badly weighted). A chance is taken on Silver Tide who is essentially a 9f specialist but my stats tell me that proven ability over further than the race distance is a positive and the strongly run mile will suit her ideally. A prep run at Dundalk should have her spot on and the 5yo is pretty consistent with cut. Of the others, I'd fear Crooked Throw and Pollen, though you're not getting many sweets with the latter's prices, especially considering that she flopped on her sole handicap run when fancied.
I'm loathe to tip an unraced horse in any race but there are sound reasons for suggesting Cluain Alainn in the last at the Curragh. The likely favourite Toraidhe is one to get as he looked to have a most unwilling attitude in 2 starts last term and his yard habitually start slowly; Bolger has had just 2 winners from 42 runners in March in the last 4 years. John Oxx on the other hand loves to target this race and his runners since 2004 have ran:12341172. Cluain Alainn is from the family of Ridgewood Pearl and I hope he can kick-start what could be a pretty special year for the Oxx three-year-olds.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
The Lincoln - The Curragh, March 22nd: The Key Trends
- A few of the bigger yards have pretty poor records in the first big handicap of the flat season. Kevin Prendergast has managed just a fourth place finish from 15 runners since 1999 while Jim Bolger has had only a third from 9 runners in the same time period. Ger Lyons is without a place from 8 attempts.
- 4yos make up the bulk of the field but their overall strike-rate isn’t great. If you’re backing a 4yo make sure it’s a particular type, namely an unexposed type that was lightly raced in handicaps at three. The four winning four-year-olds since 1998 (Deauville Vision, Bawaader, Tolpuddle & Tarry Flynn) had just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the season rated over 100 and running in pattern races.
- This race can turn into a real slog (all of the last 10 renewals have been run on yielding-soft or worse, though the weather forecast suggests it could be slightly quicker this year) and older horses that have developed stamina with age win more than their share. From just 17% of the total runners, horses aged between seven and nine have supplied 40% of the winners as well as 7 places.
- Throw out unproven stayers without a second thought. All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile while many had shown form over further; Crooked Throw, Victram, Atlantic Rhapsody and Wray had all won over hurdles while Tolpuddle, Livadiya and Tarry Flynn had won over nine furlongs or further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less to victory and the place stats are similar – 24 of the 30 horses hitting the frame had 9-0 or less on their backs.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 87 and 92.
- The draw is crucial here and horses drawn in the middle third have little chance. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 24 of the last 30 placed horses) were drawn within 8 stalls of either rail. In an average year, about 24 horses go to post so this stat should allow you to knock out a third of the field.
- Front-runners and prominent racers should be opposed relentlessly. Since 1999, 5 of the winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 4 tracked the pace while just 4 of the 30 placed horses raced prominently and none finished better than third.
- 4yos make up the bulk of the field but their overall strike-rate isn’t great. If you’re backing a 4yo make sure it’s a particular type, namely an unexposed type that was lightly raced in handicaps at three. The four winning four-year-olds since 1998 (Deauville Vision, Bawaader, Tolpuddle & Tarry Flynn) had just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the season rated over 100 and running in pattern races.
- This race can turn into a real slog (all of the last 10 renewals have been run on yielding-soft or worse, though the weather forecast suggests it could be slightly quicker this year) and older horses that have developed stamina with age win more than their share. From just 17% of the total runners, horses aged between seven and nine have supplied 40% of the winners as well as 7 places.
- Throw out unproven stayers without a second thought. All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile while many had shown form over further; Crooked Throw, Victram, Atlantic Rhapsody and Wray had all won over hurdles while Tolpuddle, Livadiya and Tarry Flynn had won over nine furlongs or further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less to victory and the place stats are similar – 24 of the 30 horses hitting the frame had 9-0 or less on their backs.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 87 and 92.
- The draw is crucial here and horses drawn in the middle third have little chance. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 24 of the last 30 placed horses) were drawn within 8 stalls of either rail. In an average year, about 24 horses go to post so this stat should allow you to knock out a third of the field.
- Front-runners and prominent racers should be opposed relentlessly. Since 1999, 5 of the winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 4 tracked the pace while just 4 of the 30 placed horses raced prominently and none finished better than third.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Weekend NAP - March 14th, 2008
Naas 2.10 - Jaffonnien
Season to date: +1.25
Jaffonnien may have failed to complete last time but was travelling best of all when tipping up over course-and-distance in maiden hurdle fought out by Smoking Aces and Puyol. I'd be keen on either of those if they were in here and Jaffonien probably would have beaten both so he has to be interesting getting 6lbs from the previous winners in the line-up.
In the weekend's big handicaps, Western Gale and Mustangsallyrally have chances. Western Gale is returning from a break in the Johnstown Handicap Hurdle at Naas but goes well fresh and just wasn't getting home over fences earlier in the season; the drop to 19f will suit. On the book, Mustangsallyrally has it all to do to reverse form with Knock On The Head on their Gowran running but the step up to 3 miles is much more in his favour and he may have hit the front too soon last time.
Season to date: +1.25
Jaffonnien may have failed to complete last time but was travelling best of all when tipping up over course-and-distance in maiden hurdle fought out by Smoking Aces and Puyol. I'd be keen on either of those if they were in here and Jaffonien probably would have beaten both so he has to be interesting getting 6lbs from the previous winners in the line-up.
In the weekend's big handicaps, Western Gale and Mustangsallyrally have chances. Western Gale is returning from a break in the Johnstown Handicap Hurdle at Naas but goes well fresh and just wasn't getting home over fences earlier in the season; the drop to 19f will suit. On the book, Mustangsallyrally has it all to do to reverse form with Knock On The Head on their Gowran running but the step up to 3 miles is much more in his favour and he may have hit the front too soon last time.
Saturday, March 7, 2009
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