The Lincoln - The Curragh, March 22nd: The Key Trends

- A few of the bigger yards have pretty poor records in the first big handicap of the flat season. Kevin Prendergast has managed just a fourth place finish from 15 runners since 1999 while Jim Bolger has had only a third from 9 runners in the same time period. Ger Lyons is without a place from 8 attempts.
- 4yos make up the bulk of the field but their overall strike-rate isn’t great. If you’re backing a 4yo make sure it’s a particular type, namely an unexposed type that was lightly raced in handicaps at three. The four winning four-year-olds since 1998 (Deauville Vision, Bawaader, Tolpuddle & Tarry Flynn) had just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the season rated over 100 and running in pattern races.
- This race can turn into a real slog (all of the last 10 renewals have been run on yielding-soft or worse, though the weather forecast suggests it could be slightly quicker this year) and older horses that have developed stamina with age win more than their share. From just 17% of the total runners, horses aged between seven and nine have supplied 40% of the winners as well as 7 places.
- Throw out unproven stayers without a second thought. All of the last 10 winners had previously won over at least a mile while many had shown form over further; Crooked Throw, Victram, Atlantic Rhapsody and Wray had all won over hurdles while Tolpuddle, Livadiya and Tarry Flynn had won over nine furlongs or further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less to victory and the place stats are similar – 24 of the 30 horses hitting the frame had 9-0 or less on their backs.
- 7 of the last 10 winners were rated between 87 and 92.
- The draw is crucial here and horses drawn in the middle third have little chance. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 24 of the last 30 placed horses) were drawn within 8 stalls of either rail. In an average year, about 24 horses go to post so this stat should allow you to knock out a third of the field.
- Front-runners and prominent racers should be opposed relentlessly. Since 1999, 5 of the winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 4 tracked the pace while just 4 of the 30 placed horses raced prominently and none finished better than third.