Pattern races over sprint distances in Ireland tend to attract scant media attention for a few reasons, not least the fact that we don’t have a Group 1 (or even a Group 2) championship event for the speedsters and their status as supporting events to races of greater stature. However, the twelve Group 3 and Listed contests that comprise the Irish pattern sprint calendar throw up a number of interesting patterns that are useful to punters. We have focused on all such events to be run since the beginning of the 2003 season up to the recent King Of Beers Stakes won by Dandy Man, taking in the likes of the Greenlands, Ballyogan, Flying Five and Renaissance Stakes.
Trainers
The English sprint scene may be devoid of a superstar since the retirement of Oasis Dream but they possess great strength in depth in that division and have dominated our better races of late. From 93 runners, the raiders have had 17 winners while 46% of their runners have made the first three. Trainers with particularly strong records are Barry Hills (a winner and 2 runners-up from 3 attempts), Tim Easterby (2 winners and a third from 4 runners), Roger Charlton (3 winners and 2 thirds from 7 runners) and Rae Guest (3 winners and a place from 7 attempts).
Among the home brigade, John Mulhern, Harry Rogers and Michael Halford have done best. The first pair however, owe their successes to a single horse, Osterhase and the recently retired Moon Unit respectively, so the record of Curragh trainer Halford is of more interest as he has achieved with a number of different animals. From 24 runners, he has had 4 winners – all returned at 9/2 or greater – while 13 of his runners have made the first 5 home. His victories have all come with fillies so his representatives of the fairer sex merit particular respect.
From a negative standpoint, the big three of Aidan O’Brien (1 winner from 17 runners, 13 of which were returned at 7/1 or less), John Oxx (2 winners from 17 runners, 13 whom were sent of at 8/1 or less) and Dermot (1 winner from 32 runners) have struggled. Aidan O’Brien has had some top-class sprinters recently in Mozart and Stravinsky but both made their reputation in the top English contests like the July Cup and the Nunthorpe. His sole sprint race winner at home in the past 3 years was One Cool Cat who won the Phoenix Stakes impressively after a few disappointing efforts and the fact that he had his remaining starts abroad suggests the top Ballydoyle sprinters are rarely seen in Ireland.
Age
Age is little barrier to success in sprints if past records are anything to go by with all the age groups between 3 and 9 registering a win in the time period covered. 4yos have the best record with 14 winners and 17 places from 86 runners. It has often been said that the classic generation struggle against their elders in speed tests but they tend to have more success from the mid-summer onwards. Their place strikerate prior to the Belgrave Stakes, the midpoint of the sprint calendar, is 25% while it rises to 31% thereafter.
Fillies
The fairer sex have two events confined to themselves in the Ballyogan and Sweet Mimosa Stakes but they more than hold their own against the colts and geldings. In open company, fillies and mares have managed 12 wins and 17 places from 132 runners. Their record over the minimum trip of 5f, a pure test of speed, is particularly strong.
Betting
These races are largely predictable with 27 of the 41 winners being priced at 5/1 or shorter. Of the 5 double-figure priced winners, 3 have come in the Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend so be wary of taking a short price in that event. Odds-on backers should also thread carefully as all 6 ‘money-on’ jollies have been turned over.
Jockeys
For those who wish to follow a jockey in sprint events, there has been but one name to look out for on the racecard, J Murtagh. From 19 rides, he has had 7 winners for 5 different trainers and a €10 win bet on each of his mounts would have returned a massive profit of €313. The Waterford Testimonial Stakes, run at the Curragh in October, has been particularly kind to the Meath man as he was won each of the last 3 renewals.
Future Angles
With no actual race for analysis this week, we will try to pinpoint a few horses that should be worth following in the months to come.
Dandy Man was became just the fifth 3yo in the last 3 years to win a pattern sprint before the mid-summer when hacking up in the King of Beers Stakes over 5f at the Curragh. The other early winning 3yos were useful sorts like Moon Unit, Miss Emma and Deportivo but the Con Collins-trained colt looks like a potential superstar. The form of his last win, beating useful yardsticks Benbaun and Osterhase (both of whom should continue to pay their way) looks rock-solid and he should be hard to beat in his next target, the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York.
The next big Irish sprint race in the Group 3 Patrick P O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Stakes on August 13th. English trainer to follow Tim Easterby has a pair of interesting entries in Fayr Jag and Somnus. Both are former Group 1 winners that won their most recent start and neither has a penalty for their previous success at the top level. Fayr Jag likes it fast on top while Somnus is best with a dig in the ground.
Perhaps the most interesting horse to follow is Michael Halford’s Leitra. Her trainer has a brilliant record with fillies and she ran a huge race to chase home Osterhase in the Rockingham last time. She actually looked as it she’d taken that rival’s measure but as a 3yo filly having just her sixth start she lacked the maturity of her battle-hardened rival. Her handler voiced concerns about her taking on older rivals in a recent stable tour but she looks well-equipped to take that rise in class in her stride. A quick surface suits best and she should be breaking her pattern duck before the year’s end. The likely presence of top jockey Johnny Murtagh on top is a further bonus. (27/7/2006)
Friday, November 17, 2006
Martin Brassil
Finding lower profile trainers who do well with small strings can prove a profitable punting strategy, especially when we analyse the profiles of the horses they tend to win with. Martin Brassil is one such handler, and there are few shrewder in the placing of their horses to best effect.
The most notable factor in Brassil’s winners in the period covered (from the beginning of the 2001 NH season to 24th August this year) is their market position. Almost all of his winners were towards the head of the betting, with just one returned at a bigger SP than 9/1. Horses occupy prominent positions in the market for two reasons – either they are clear form choices or they have come in for support from the betting public. In the case of Brassil, his winners can fit either (or indeed both!) of these profiles. Be wary of the horses in their first handicap though as only Numbersixvalverde, who already had some decent form in novice chases, won his first start in such company.
Brassil has sent out the favourite 30 times in the last 5 years, winning 12 times – an impressive strikerate of 40%. In the same period, he has had 79 runners returned at an SP of 9/1 or less – 23 of these have won, resulting in a strikerate of 29%. His record with horses returned 4/1 or shorter is even better, with 18 of 48 such runners winning (38% strikerate). What is more interesting about this later group however is their win to place ratio – they rarely reach the frame without winning. If we discount stable start Numbersixvalverde, who as a younger horse had a frustrating tendency to place without winning, 16 of the yard’s horses returned at 5/1 or less won to just 5 placing, a ratio of over 3:1. The trainer seems capable of having his horse ready for the race and knows that, barring accidents, if they are thereabouts in the finish they will win more than they lose.
Small yard’s rarely engage the services of a top jockey lest their contender holds a leading chance and the presence of one R Walsh is often a positive on the stable’s horses – the champion has ridden 13 winners from 34 rides for Brassil in the past 5 years, resulting in a level stakes profit of almost €12. Slippers Madden has a decent record here too with 4 winners from 15 mounts with a level stakes profit of €20.
There are a number of horses in the yard at present that should be worth following over the 2006/07 NH season. Having already resurrected the career of one former high-class French hurdler in Nickname, Brassil has a similar case on his hands with Ambobo. A hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle in January 2005, the Sean Mulryan-owned gelding held a prominent position in the antepost betting for the RSA Hurdle for that season before succumbing to injury. He showed enough on his return last term to suggest he retained at least some of his previous ability and a novice chasing campaign beckons. The 6yo is not over-big, but he has plenty of back-class.
Fanling Lady landed a big of a touch under Mark Walsh in a Naas maiden hurdle last February and while disappointing since she should be able to win off her mark of 99. Significantly, she has already had her first run in a handicap. There is little to recommend the 75-rated Lower The Blade on form but his trainer regards a trip between 2 and 2 ½ miles on good ground or slightly softer as his optimum, conditions he has yet to have in 7 racecourse appearances. Glitter And Glory has dropped significantly in the ratings from a career high mark of 98 to 81. The 7yo ran a decent race behind Third Level Tom at Sligo recently having been off track for 7 months and could win a handicap on fast ground.
Both Mister Farmer and Clearwaterdreamer [WON 7/1 - Punchestown, 19/10/06] , have run well in defeat in maiden hurdles of late and should gain compensation soon. Silent Wind has had just one start for the yard when fifth in a decent Punchestown maiden hurdle behind Line Ball but has pattern form on the flat in his native Germany and is an interesting recruit while former winning pointer Final Orders showed signs having been off the track for a long time in a Tipperary bumper last April. He should prove best over fences. (30/8/2006)
The most notable factor in Brassil’s winners in the period covered (from the beginning of the 2001 NH season to 24th August this year) is their market position. Almost all of his winners were towards the head of the betting, with just one returned at a bigger SP than 9/1. Horses occupy prominent positions in the market for two reasons – either they are clear form choices or they have come in for support from the betting public. In the case of Brassil, his winners can fit either (or indeed both!) of these profiles. Be wary of the horses in their first handicap though as only Numbersixvalverde, who already had some decent form in novice chases, won his first start in such company.
Brassil has sent out the favourite 30 times in the last 5 years, winning 12 times – an impressive strikerate of 40%. In the same period, he has had 79 runners returned at an SP of 9/1 or less – 23 of these have won, resulting in a strikerate of 29%. His record with horses returned 4/1 or shorter is even better, with 18 of 48 such runners winning (38% strikerate). What is more interesting about this later group however is their win to place ratio – they rarely reach the frame without winning. If we discount stable start Numbersixvalverde, who as a younger horse had a frustrating tendency to place without winning, 16 of the yard’s horses returned at 5/1 or less won to just 5 placing, a ratio of over 3:1. The trainer seems capable of having his horse ready for the race and knows that, barring accidents, if they are thereabouts in the finish they will win more than they lose.
Small yard’s rarely engage the services of a top jockey lest their contender holds a leading chance and the presence of one R Walsh is often a positive on the stable’s horses – the champion has ridden 13 winners from 34 rides for Brassil in the past 5 years, resulting in a level stakes profit of almost €12. Slippers Madden has a decent record here too with 4 winners from 15 mounts with a level stakes profit of €20.
There are a number of horses in the yard at present that should be worth following over the 2006/07 NH season. Having already resurrected the career of one former high-class French hurdler in Nickname, Brassil has a similar case on his hands with Ambobo. A hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle in January 2005, the Sean Mulryan-owned gelding held a prominent position in the antepost betting for the RSA Hurdle for that season before succumbing to injury. He showed enough on his return last term to suggest he retained at least some of his previous ability and a novice chasing campaign beckons. The 6yo is not over-big, but he has plenty of back-class.
Fanling Lady landed a big of a touch under Mark Walsh in a Naas maiden hurdle last February and while disappointing since she should be able to win off her mark of 99. Significantly, she has already had her first run in a handicap. There is little to recommend the 75-rated Lower The Blade on form but his trainer regards a trip between 2 and 2 ½ miles on good ground or slightly softer as his optimum, conditions he has yet to have in 7 racecourse appearances. Glitter And Glory has dropped significantly in the ratings from a career high mark of 98 to 81. The 7yo ran a decent race behind Third Level Tom at Sligo recently having been off track for 7 months and could win a handicap on fast ground.
Both Mister Farmer and Clearwaterdreamer [WON 7/1 - Punchestown, 19/10/06] , have run well in defeat in maiden hurdles of late and should gain compensation soon. Silent Wind has had just one start for the yard when fifth in a decent Punchestown maiden hurdle behind Line Ball but has pattern form on the flat in his native Germany and is an interesting recruit while former winning pointer Final Orders showed signs having been off the track for a long time in a Tipperary bumper last April. He should prove best over fences. (30/8/2006)
Irish Juvenile Pattern Races
It’s unlikely that George Orwell had Irish flat racing in mind when he famously wrote that ‘All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others’ but the quotation is certainly apt for our top juvenile events. Despite carrying similar titles, the end product of such races differs greatly with some events consistently throwing up smart three-year-olds while the best horses in others are struggling through their classic season. With this in mind, I have tried to pinpoint some horses to follow (and avoid) in 2007.
Holy Roman Emperor took a while to capture the public’s imagination last term following his abortive trip to Royal Ascot, but his blinding turn-of-foot was very much in evidence when landing both the Railway and Phoenix Stakes. The first race has been a starting point for a number of high-class Ballydoyle inmates of late, including George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings. Significantly however, only the first-named – a horse of such ability that Aidan O’Brien has spoken of him as the best he has trained – won both events. The Phoenix Stakes is very much a test of early 2yo speed, rather than a guide to the following year’s classics, and just 1 of the last 10 winners managed a Gr.1 win at three. Many paddock judges have reported Holy Roman Emperor as a real 2yo type, a bull of a horse with little scope for further progress, and it looked as if he would follow the path of many of his predecessors when chinned by Teofilo next time. However, the son of Danehill was again to prove the doubters wrong when landing Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp (a race that has a history of producing classic winners) and with Kieren Fallon keen to take on his National Stakes conqueror again the stage is set for an epic rematch.
If Holy Roman Emperor is a flawed genius, then his rival Teofilo is perfection, unbeaten as he is in 4 starts. A true product of the Jim Bolger operation, being bred, owned, trained and ridden by different family members, the son of second-season phenomenon Galileo came to prominence when landing the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. Traditionally, the event produces winners that improve as their 3yo careers go on, such as Giant’s Causeway and Oratorio, which bodes well for Teofilo’s future but it was his success in the National Stakes that really took the eye. The 7f Championship event has produced the Newmarket Guineas favourite in 4 of the last 5 years, with a massive 13 Gr.1-winning 3yos emerging from its midst in the past decade. Quite simply, Teofilo is winning all the right races to suggest he will be a brilliant 3yo, perhaps even a superstar.
Of the other colt’s races, the form of the Beresford Stakes should be monitored, particularly if the runners are upped in trip. This Gr.2 over a mile often produces a horse that does well over at least mile and a half in time with the likes of Alamshar, Brian Boru and Vinnie Roe running well of late. The Killavullan Stakes, run on the final day of flat season at Leopardstown, may slip under the radar of some but it has a history of producing solid pattern performers. Of the horses to finish first and second in the race in the past 10 years, half won a pattern event the following season.
The fillies scene has been dominated by Miss Beatrix, who from humble beginnings (she managed just 1 win in her first 6 starts) came to land both the Moyglare Stakes and the newly inaugurated Goffs Million. This daughter of Danehill Dancer owes her connections nothing and that could be just as well given the Moyglare’s poor record of producing classic fillies. Just twice since 1995 has the 7f Gr.1 produced a classic winner at home and with 3ls covering the first 8 home this could well be the case this time around. That said the race has thrown up a number of top level successes later in the season with the likes of Dress To Thrill and it could be worth persevering with the form.
Those looking for a fillies race to follow could do far worse than look at the CL Weld Park Stakes. Despite holding just Gr.3 status, the 7f contest has an amazing record of producing classic winners the following year. 7 classic victors have emerged from the race since 1997, and that is not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. Arch Swing ran out a particularly taking winner of this year’s renewal, beating a number of decent rivals by upwards of four and a half lengths. Owned by lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose flat horses have won a pattern race, she fits a strong profile of other classy animals from her yard as a first time juvenile winner. Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same for John Oxx before going on to better things, and this one looks worthy of support wherever she runs next term. The omens are certainly good. (7/10/2006)
Holy Roman Emperor took a while to capture the public’s imagination last term following his abortive trip to Royal Ascot, but his blinding turn-of-foot was very much in evidence when landing both the Railway and Phoenix Stakes. The first race has been a starting point for a number of high-class Ballydoyle inmates of late, including George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings. Significantly however, only the first-named – a horse of such ability that Aidan O’Brien has spoken of him as the best he has trained – won both events. The Phoenix Stakes is very much a test of early 2yo speed, rather than a guide to the following year’s classics, and just 1 of the last 10 winners managed a Gr.1 win at three. Many paddock judges have reported Holy Roman Emperor as a real 2yo type, a bull of a horse with little scope for further progress, and it looked as if he would follow the path of many of his predecessors when chinned by Teofilo next time. However, the son of Danehill was again to prove the doubters wrong when landing Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp (a race that has a history of producing classic winners) and with Kieren Fallon keen to take on his National Stakes conqueror again the stage is set for an epic rematch.
If Holy Roman Emperor is a flawed genius, then his rival Teofilo is perfection, unbeaten as he is in 4 starts. A true product of the Jim Bolger operation, being bred, owned, trained and ridden by different family members, the son of second-season phenomenon Galileo came to prominence when landing the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. Traditionally, the event produces winners that improve as their 3yo careers go on, such as Giant’s Causeway and Oratorio, which bodes well for Teofilo’s future but it was his success in the National Stakes that really took the eye. The 7f Championship event has produced the Newmarket Guineas favourite in 4 of the last 5 years, with a massive 13 Gr.1-winning 3yos emerging from its midst in the past decade. Quite simply, Teofilo is winning all the right races to suggest he will be a brilliant 3yo, perhaps even a superstar.
Of the other colt’s races, the form of the Beresford Stakes should be monitored, particularly if the runners are upped in trip. This Gr.2 over a mile often produces a horse that does well over at least mile and a half in time with the likes of Alamshar, Brian Boru and Vinnie Roe running well of late. The Killavullan Stakes, run on the final day of flat season at Leopardstown, may slip under the radar of some but it has a history of producing solid pattern performers. Of the horses to finish first and second in the race in the past 10 years, half won a pattern event the following season.
The fillies scene has been dominated by Miss Beatrix, who from humble beginnings (she managed just 1 win in her first 6 starts) came to land both the Moyglare Stakes and the newly inaugurated Goffs Million. This daughter of Danehill Dancer owes her connections nothing and that could be just as well given the Moyglare’s poor record of producing classic fillies. Just twice since 1995 has the 7f Gr.1 produced a classic winner at home and with 3ls covering the first 8 home this could well be the case this time around. That said the race has thrown up a number of top level successes later in the season with the likes of Dress To Thrill and it could be worth persevering with the form.
Those looking for a fillies race to follow could do far worse than look at the CL Weld Park Stakes. Despite holding just Gr.3 status, the 7f contest has an amazing record of producing classic winners the following year. 7 classic victors have emerged from the race since 1997, and that is not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. Arch Swing ran out a particularly taking winner of this year’s renewal, beating a number of decent rivals by upwards of four and a half lengths. Owned by lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose flat horses have won a pattern race, she fits a strong profile of other classy animals from her yard as a first time juvenile winner. Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same for John Oxx before going on to better things, and this one looks worthy of support wherever she runs next term. The omens are certainly good. (7/10/2006)
Modeeroch - 7f Specialist
Modeeroch is no world beater but granted her ideal conditions she is hard to stop. Her record over 7f reads:123151.
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