Irish Juvenile Pattern Races

It’s unlikely that George Orwell had Irish flat racing in mind when he famously wrote that ‘All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others’ but the quotation is certainly apt for our top juvenile events. Despite carrying similar titles, the end product of such races differs greatly with some events consistently throwing up smart three-year-olds while the best horses in others are struggling through their classic season. With this in mind, I have tried to pinpoint some horses to follow (and avoid) in 2007.

Holy Roman Emperor took a while to capture the public’s imagination last term following his abortive trip to Royal Ascot, but his blinding turn-of-foot was very much in evidence when landing both the Railway and Phoenix Stakes. The first race has been a starting point for a number of high-class Ballydoyle inmates of late, including George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings. Significantly however, only the first-named – a horse of such ability that Aidan O’Brien has spoken of him as the best he has trained – won both events. The Phoenix Stakes is very much a test of early 2yo speed, rather than a guide to the following year’s classics, and just 1 of the last 10 winners managed a Gr.1 win at three. Many paddock judges have reported Holy Roman Emperor as a real 2yo type, a bull of a horse with little scope for further progress, and it looked as if he would follow the path of many of his predecessors when chinned by Teofilo next time. However, the son of Danehill was again to prove the doubters wrong when landing Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp (a race that has a history of producing classic winners) and with Kieren Fallon keen to take on his National Stakes conqueror again the stage is set for an epic rematch.

If Holy Roman Emperor is a flawed genius, then his rival Teofilo is perfection, unbeaten as he is in 4 starts. A true product of the Jim Bolger operation, being bred, owned, trained and ridden by different family members, the son of second-season phenomenon Galileo came to prominence when landing the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. Traditionally, the event produces winners that improve as their 3yo careers go on, such as Giant’s Causeway and Oratorio, which bodes well for Teofilo’s future but it was his success in the National Stakes that really took the eye. The 7f Championship event has produced the Newmarket Guineas favourite in 4 of the last 5 years, with a massive 13 Gr.1-winning 3yos emerging from its midst in the past decade. Quite simply, Teofilo is winning all the right races to suggest he will be a brilliant 3yo, perhaps even a superstar.

Of the other colt’s races, the form of the Beresford Stakes should be monitored, particularly if the runners are upped in trip. This Gr.2 over a mile often produces a horse that does well over at least mile and a half in time with the likes of Alamshar, Brian Boru and Vinnie Roe running well of late. The Killavullan Stakes, run on the final day of flat season at Leopardstown, may slip under the radar of some but it has a history of producing solid pattern performers. Of the horses to finish first and second in the race in the past 10 years, half won a pattern event the following season.

The fillies scene has been dominated by Miss Beatrix, who from humble beginnings (she managed just 1 win in her first 6 starts) came to land both the Moyglare Stakes and the newly inaugurated Goffs Million. This daughter of Danehill Dancer owes her connections nothing and that could be just as well given the Moyglare’s poor record of producing classic fillies. Just twice since 1995 has the 7f Gr.1 produced a classic winner at home and with 3ls covering the first 8 home this could well be the case this time around. That said the race has thrown up a number of top level successes later in the season with the likes of Dress To Thrill and it could be worth persevering with the form.

Those looking for a fillies race to follow could do far worse than look at the CL Weld Park Stakes. Despite holding just Gr.3 status, the 7f contest has an amazing record of producing classic winners the following year. 7 classic victors have emerged from the race since 1997, and that is not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. Arch Swing ran out a particularly taking winner of this year’s renewal, beating a number of decent rivals by upwards of four and a half lengths. Owned by lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose flat horses have won a pattern race, she fits a strong profile of other classy animals from her yard as a first time juvenile winner. Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same for John Oxx before going on to better things, and this one looks worthy of support wherever she runs next term. The omens are certainly good. (7/10/2006)