Friday, November 17, 2006

Pattern Sprint Races

Pattern races over sprint distances in Ireland tend to attract scant media attention for a few reasons, not least the fact that we don’t have a Group 1 (or even a Group 2) championship event for the speedsters and their status as supporting events to races of greater stature. However, the twelve Group 3 and Listed contests that comprise the Irish pattern sprint calendar throw up a number of interesting patterns that are useful to punters. We have focused on all such events to be run since the beginning of the 2003 season up to the recent King Of Beers Stakes won by Dandy Man, taking in the likes of the Greenlands, Ballyogan, Flying Five and Renaissance Stakes.

Trainers
The English sprint scene may be devoid of a superstar since the retirement of Oasis Dream but they possess great strength in depth in that division and have dominated our better races of late. From 93 runners, the raiders have had 17 winners while 46% of their runners have made the first three. Trainers with particularly strong records are Barry Hills (a winner and 2 runners-up from 3 attempts), Tim Easterby (2 winners and a third from 4 runners), Roger Charlton (3 winners and 2 thirds from 7 runners) and Rae Guest (3 winners and a place from 7 attempts).
Among the home brigade, John Mulhern, Harry Rogers and Michael Halford have done best. The first pair however, owe their successes to a single horse, Osterhase and the recently retired Moon Unit respectively, so the record of Curragh trainer Halford is of more interest as he has achieved with a number of different animals. From 24 runners, he has had 4 winners – all returned at 9/2 or greater – while 13 of his runners have made the first 5 home. His victories have all come with fillies so his representatives of the fairer sex merit particular respect.
From a negative standpoint, the big three of Aidan O’Brien (1 winner from 17 runners, 13 of which were returned at 7/1 or less), John Oxx (2 winners from 17 runners, 13 whom were sent of at 8/1 or less) and Dermot (1 winner from 32 runners) have struggled. Aidan O’Brien has had some top-class sprinters recently in Mozart and Stravinsky but both made their reputation in the top English contests like the July Cup and the Nunthorpe. His sole sprint race winner at home in the past 3 years was One Cool Cat who won the Phoenix Stakes impressively after a few disappointing efforts and the fact that he had his remaining starts abroad suggests the top Ballydoyle sprinters are rarely seen in Ireland.

Age
Age is little barrier to success in sprints if past records are anything to go by with all the age groups between 3 and 9 registering a win in the time period covered. 4yos have the best record with 14 winners and 17 places from 86 runners. It has often been said that the classic generation struggle against their elders in speed tests but they tend to have more success from the mid-summer onwards. Their place strikerate prior to the Belgrave Stakes, the midpoint of the sprint calendar, is 25% while it rises to 31% thereafter.

Fillies
The fairer sex have two events confined to themselves in the Ballyogan and Sweet Mimosa Stakes but they more than hold their own against the colts and geldings. In open company, fillies and mares have managed 12 wins and 17 places from 132 runners. Their record over the minimum trip of 5f, a pure test of speed, is particularly strong.

Betting
These races are largely predictable with 27 of the 41 winners being priced at 5/1 or shorter. Of the 5 double-figure priced winners, 3 have come in the Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend so be wary of taking a short price in that event. Odds-on backers should also thread carefully as all 6 ‘money-on’ jollies have been turned over.

Jockeys
For those who wish to follow a jockey in sprint events, there has been but one name to look out for on the racecard, J Murtagh. From 19 rides, he has had 7 winners for 5 different trainers and a €10 win bet on each of his mounts would have returned a massive profit of €313. The Waterford Testimonial Stakes, run at the Curragh in October, has been particularly kind to the Meath man as he was won each of the last 3 renewals.

Future Angles
With no actual race for analysis this week, we will try to pinpoint a few horses that should be worth following in the months to come.
Dandy Man was became just the fifth 3yo in the last 3 years to win a pattern sprint before the mid-summer when hacking up in the King of Beers Stakes over 5f at the Curragh. The other early winning 3yos were useful sorts like Moon Unit, Miss Emma and Deportivo but the Con Collins-trained colt looks like a potential superstar. The form of his last win, beating useful yardsticks Benbaun and Osterhase (both of whom should continue to pay their way) looks rock-solid and he should be hard to beat in his next target, the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York.
The next big Irish sprint race in the Group 3 Patrick P O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Stakes on August 13th. English trainer to follow Tim Easterby has a pair of interesting entries in Fayr Jag and Somnus. Both are former Group 1 winners that won their most recent start and neither has a penalty for their previous success at the top level. Fayr Jag likes it fast on top while Somnus is best with a dig in the ground.
Perhaps the most interesting horse to follow is Michael Halford’s Leitra. Her trainer has a brilliant record with fillies and she ran a huge race to chase home Osterhase in the Rockingham last time. She actually looked as it she’d taken that rival’s measure but as a 3yo filly having just her sixth start she lacked the maturity of her battle-hardened rival. Her handler voiced concerns about her taking on older rivals in a recent stable tour but she looks well-equipped to take that rise in class in her stride. A quick surface suits best and she should be breaking her pattern duck before the year’s end. The likely presence of top jockey Johnny Murtagh on top is a further bonus. (27/7/2006)

No comments: