Martin Brassil

Finding lower profile trainers who do well with small strings can prove a profitable punting strategy, especially when we analyse the profiles of the horses they tend to win with. Martin Brassil is one such handler, and there are few shrewder in the placing of their horses to best effect.

The most notable factor in Brassil’s winners in the period covered (from the beginning of the 2001 NH season to 24th August this year) is their market position. Almost all of his winners were towards the head of the betting, with just one returned at a bigger SP than 9/1. Horses occupy prominent positions in the market for two reasons – either they are clear form choices or they have come in for support from the betting public. In the case of Brassil, his winners can fit either (or indeed both!) of these profiles. Be wary of the horses in their first handicap though as only Numbersixvalverde, who already had some decent form in novice chases, won his first start in such company.

Brassil has sent out the favourite 30 times in the last 5 years, winning 12 times – an impressive strikerate of 40%. In the same period, he has had 79 runners returned at an SP of 9/1 or less – 23 of these have won, resulting in a strikerate of 29%. His record with horses returned 4/1 or shorter is even better, with 18 of 48 such runners winning (38% strikerate). What is more interesting about this later group however is their win to place ratio – they rarely reach the frame without winning. If we discount stable start Numbersixvalverde, who as a younger horse had a frustrating tendency to place without winning, 16 of the yard’s horses returned at 5/1 or less won to just 5 placing, a ratio of over 3:1. The trainer seems capable of having his horse ready for the race and knows that, barring accidents, if they are thereabouts in the finish they will win more than they lose.

Small yard’s rarely engage the services of a top jockey lest their contender holds a leading chance and the presence of one R Walsh is often a positive on the stable’s horses – the champion has ridden 13 winners from 34 rides for Brassil in the past 5 years, resulting in a level stakes profit of almost €12. Slippers Madden has a decent record here too with 4 winners from 15 mounts with a level stakes profit of €20.

There are a number of horses in the yard at present that should be worth following over the 2006/07 NH season. Having already resurrected the career of one former high-class French hurdler in Nickname, Brassil has a similar case on his hands with Ambobo. A hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle in January 2005, the Sean Mulryan-owned gelding held a prominent position in the antepost betting for the RSA Hurdle for that season before succumbing to injury. He showed enough on his return last term to suggest he retained at least some of his previous ability and a novice chasing campaign beckons. The 6yo is not over-big, but he has plenty of back-class.

Fanling Lady landed a big of a touch under Mark Walsh in a Naas maiden hurdle last February and while disappointing since she should be able to win off her mark of 99. Significantly, she has already had her first run in a handicap. There is little to recommend the 75-rated Lower The Blade on form but his trainer regards a trip between 2 and 2 ½ miles on good ground or slightly softer as his optimum, conditions he has yet to have in 7 racecourse appearances. Glitter And Glory has dropped significantly in the ratings from a career high mark of 98 to 81. The 7yo ran a decent race behind Third Level Tom at Sligo recently having been off track for 7 months and could win a handicap on fast ground.

Both Mister Farmer and Clearwaterdreamer [WON 7/1 - Punchestown, 19/10/06] , have run well in defeat in maiden hurdles of late and should gain compensation soon. Silent Wind has had just one start for the yard when fifth in a decent Punchestown maiden hurdle behind Line Ball but has pattern form on the flat in his native Germany and is an interesting recruit while former winning pointer Final Orders showed signs having been off the track for a long time in a Tipperary bumper last April. He should prove best over fences. (30/8/2006)