Sunday, January 27, 2008
Form Lines - Clover Pearl
Despite having just her second start in 16 months at Leopardstown on Pierse Day, Clover Pearl [WON 9/1 - Galway, 30/7/08] was straight enough to split Motaraqeb and Splurge in a tight finish of the 0-109 handicap hurdle. That pair were subsequently first and second (clear of the remainder) in a 0-130 race at Gowran on Thursday, suggesting that Clover Pearl is well-in on a mark of 96, just 4lbs than when runner-up at Leopardstown. The 8yo mare came from well off the pace to get within 3/4ls of the enterprisingly and brilliantly-ridden winner so is better than the bare form and a brief look at some of her old form adds further suppport to the idea that she's one to follow. The Clonmel race she won in May 2006 worked out particularly well with the second Jigalo now rated 110 (ran off 83 on that occasion) and the third Clochmail Castle now a 117-rated chaser (raced off 80 that day). Clover Pearl has obviously had her training problems but if she stays sound, the daughter of Luso should win at least one lowly handicap hurdle for connections.
Leopardstown - January 27th, 2008
Positives: Interrupted preparation? So what. 19lbs to find at the weights? No matter. The performance of Sizing Europe in winning the AIG was brilliant and Andrew McNamara was simply sitting aboard a steering job here. Dual Champion Hurdle winner Hardy Eustace has rarely been so easily dispatched and Henry De Bromhead’s 6yo looks the real deal with a view to Cheltenham. Proven at the course, he goes on any ground and just about the only worry with him is his jumping which can be a bit big.
Negatives: Sizing Africa shares much in common with Sizing Europe, though not his aptitude for hurdling. One of the smartest bumper performers around last term when he won at Gowran and Fairyhouse, his fourth place finish in the 2m maiden was the fourth time in as many hurdles starts that he’s failed to make the frame. He’s disappointing and over-hyped. With the leading trio falling at the last, The Budgee was a hugely fortuitous winner of the Clarkson Handicap Chase over 2m3f. Any hike the ratings will be too much and it’s impossible to take this win as evidence that he truly stays beyond 2m. Glenrock Leader has been on the go since September and may have found this one race too in the 2m4f novice hurdle. He looked listless in the parade ring and was a sorry sight when returning to the stables after the being pulled up. Conditions suited here (he was unbeaten in 3 starts on soft or slower before this) so he looks over the top and couldn’t be supported if running again before the season’s end. Next term would be a different story however, and he’s an intriguing novice chase prospect.
Pointers: Noel Meade’s stable continues to be in rank form and the fact that Aitmatov and Gem Daly, a pair of horses who hadn’t been seen since running well in Grade 1 races in the December when the stable was flying, both ran shockers has to be a major concern for the Castletown handler. It would be hard to back anything from the yard in the current climate and such doubts are hardly ideal for Muirhead ahead of his likely tilt at the Deloitte in 2 weeks. English trainers have long exploited the allowance system over fences, so much so that it’s been reduced this season, and Willie Mullins is doing likewise with his pair of French bred 5yo mares, Pomme Tiepy and J’y Vole. The duo have run 5 times between them this season, winning every time at odds of 11/4, 8/11, 11/10, 4/6 and 5/4. Both are classy performers that jump well and their weight advantages will continue to make them difficult to stop. Callherwhatulike was well fancied in the 3-miler but she was simply in a race she couldn’t win as she doesn’t see out the trip. She travelled well and a return to 2m4f will suit though some have suggested her weakening in the straight had a more sinister cause. With a totally of 8 falls or unseats in the 3 chases (from just 31 runners), there was further evidence that the fences at Leopardstown are ultra-stiff. Bad jumpers need not apply at the Hennessy meeting and beyond.
Negatives: Sizing Africa shares much in common with Sizing Europe, though not his aptitude for hurdling. One of the smartest bumper performers around last term when he won at Gowran and Fairyhouse, his fourth place finish in the 2m maiden was the fourth time in as many hurdles starts that he’s failed to make the frame. He’s disappointing and over-hyped. With the leading trio falling at the last, The Budgee was a hugely fortuitous winner of the Clarkson Handicap Chase over 2m3f. Any hike the ratings will be too much and it’s impossible to take this win as evidence that he truly stays beyond 2m. Glenrock Leader has been on the go since September and may have found this one race too in the 2m4f novice hurdle. He looked listless in the parade ring and was a sorry sight when returning to the stables after the being pulled up. Conditions suited here (he was unbeaten in 3 starts on soft or slower before this) so he looks over the top and couldn’t be supported if running again before the season’s end. Next term would be a different story however, and he’s an intriguing novice chase prospect.
Pointers: Noel Meade’s stable continues to be in rank form and the fact that Aitmatov and Gem Daly, a pair of horses who hadn’t been seen since running well in Grade 1 races in the December when the stable was flying, both ran shockers has to be a major concern for the Castletown handler. It would be hard to back anything from the yard in the current climate and such doubts are hardly ideal for Muirhead ahead of his likely tilt at the Deloitte in 2 weeks. English trainers have long exploited the allowance system over fences, so much so that it’s been reduced this season, and Willie Mullins is doing likewise with his pair of French bred 5yo mares, Pomme Tiepy and J’y Vole. The duo have run 5 times between them this season, winning every time at odds of 11/4, 8/11, 11/10, 4/6 and 5/4. Both are classy performers that jump well and their weight advantages will continue to make them difficult to stop. Callherwhatulike was well fancied in the 3-miler but she was simply in a race she couldn’t win as she doesn’t see out the trip. She travelled well and a return to 2m4f will suit though some have suggested her weakening in the straight had a more sinister cause. With a totally of 8 falls or unseats in the 3 chases (from just 31 runners), there was further evidence that the fences at Leopardstown are ultra-stiff. Bad jumpers need not apply at the Hennessy meeting and beyond.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Key Hennessy Trends, Leopardstown February 10th
- Of the last 9 winners to have an official mark going into the race, 8 were rated at least 160. Beef Or Salmon didn’t have a handicap mark when he won his first Hennessy in 2003 but was already a Grade 1 winner and had achieved a Racing Post Rating of 163+ in winning the Lexus.
- All of the last 10 winners were returned at 11/2 or shorter. 8 of the last 10 winners were no bigger than 3/1.
- Concentrate on horses with good recent form. Of the 9 winners since 1999, 7 finished in the first three last time out while the other two fell.
- Run over the same course-and-distance at Christmas, the Lexus has thrown up the winner in 6 of the last 9 renewals. 2 horses completed the double, 2 horses improved on their placed efforts while the final pair fell. Denman won the 2007 incarnation but is unlikely to run here, but the next three home – Mossbank, The Listener and Beef Or Salmon – look major players and were separated by less than 2ls.
- All of the last 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1. 9 had won more than one top-level contest.
- Among the last 10 renewals, only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to prove his stamina over at least 3 miles.
- Every winner in the last decade had already won at Leopardstown. 7 of those 10 winners could justifiably be called course specialists, having won at least 3 times at the Foxrock track.
- All of the last 10 winners were returned at 11/2 or shorter. 8 of the last 10 winners were no bigger than 3/1.
- Concentrate on horses with good recent form. Of the 9 winners since 1999, 7 finished in the first three last time out while the other two fell.
- Run over the same course-and-distance at Christmas, the Lexus has thrown up the winner in 6 of the last 9 renewals. 2 horses completed the double, 2 horses improved on their placed efforts while the final pair fell. Denman won the 2007 incarnation but is unlikely to run here, but the next three home – Mossbank, The Listener and Beef Or Salmon – look major players and were separated by less than 2ls.
- All of the last 10 winners had previously won a Grade 1. 9 had won more than one top-level contest.
- Among the last 10 renewals, only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to prove his stamina over at least 3 miles.
- Every winner in the last decade had already won at Leopardstown. 7 of those 10 winners could justifiably be called course specialists, having won at least 3 times at the Foxrock track.
Sunday, January 13, 2008
Leopardstown – January 13th, 2008
Positives: Despite being the outsider of Jessica Harrington’s three runners, Capo Di Capi ran a cracker on his chase debut to follow home Scotsirish and Wins Now in the 2m1f Beginners Chase. A 112-rated hurdler, he already looks better over fences and could be one to follow during the spring and summer as he’s best on decent ground. Not for the first time, Glencove Marina looked a superstar in the making in the 2m5f Grade 2 Novice Chase. Willie Mullins’ runner cruised through the race and scooted away from the smart Finger Onthe Pulse from the back of the last. Already a Grade 1 winner over hurdles, he won’t be long in adding a similar prize over fences, possibly in the Dr. PJ Moriarty over course-and-distance on Irish Hennessy day. A cast-off from the John Oxx yard, Zarinava [WON Leopardstown 2/3 - 100/30] was heavily punted from 6s into 9/4 favouritism in the bumper. Having pulled hard early, she faded into sixth and is worth another chance.
Negatives: Chelsea Harbour had his favoured testing conditions here but the 8yo could manage only sixth in the Leopardstown Chase. He simply can’t jump and given the type of races he’s likely to be competing in, that will be a massive hindrance. Jessica Harrington took a gamble with upping Sandymount Earl eight furlongs in trip in the Pertemps Qualifier. It didn’t pay off, as the 3/1 jolly trailed home and a hard race on this sort of ground could bottom the young horse which would be a pity as he has bags of potential. In the same race, Dancing Tornado looked the winner turning but found disappointingly little. He may not have stayed but he has looked a bridle merchant in the past.
Pointers: Tailor’s Hall took a while to come to hand over hurdles and it looks a similar case over fences. The 7yo has now had three qualifying runs for a chase handicap mark and given that he’s never finished better than fourth, it’s a fair to expect his rating will be a good bit lower than his hurdles form. He could be a big player in staying handicap chases. Finger Onthe Pulse put up a bold show in the Grade 2 novice, attempting to make all and finding only Glencove Marina too good. His record left-handed now reads:1213111U2 and the only horses to beat him going anti-clockwise are Iktitaf (3-time Grade 1 winner), Nicanor (dual Grade 1 winner) and Glencove Marina (Grade 1 winner). You get the picture. Perce Rock suffered a crunching fall at the last in the same race when his stamina gave out. Anyone who knew the horse’s form cycle wouldn’t have been surprised as his record first time out is:111 and on other starts is:428FF. He’ll be hard to stop on his seasonal debut next term, no matter what the company. Mister Top Notch put up monster display off top-weight in the Leopardstown Chase, surviving a bad mistake 2 out. That took his course record to:1F11, with the fall coming when he looked like winning the Grade 2 novice chase on this card last year. With such impressive track form, he could be a dark one for the Irish Hennessy. Viso was not surprisingly stuffed in the Pierse Hurdle as he’d gone up 25lbs since winning at Punchestown in October and was totally unsuited by the heavy ground. He’s an improved performer and can win a handicap or two from his flat mark of 63. In the same race, Leonard Whitmore showed again he can train his small string when Brave Right went close to landing the spoils. His comments in the Racing Post read: ‘He’s an outsider and, while nobody seems to give him a chance, we wouldn’t be running him if we thought the same.’ His words in the future can be taken at face value.
Negatives: Chelsea Harbour had his favoured testing conditions here but the 8yo could manage only sixth in the Leopardstown Chase. He simply can’t jump and given the type of races he’s likely to be competing in, that will be a massive hindrance. Jessica Harrington took a gamble with upping Sandymount Earl eight furlongs in trip in the Pertemps Qualifier. It didn’t pay off, as the 3/1 jolly trailed home and a hard race on this sort of ground could bottom the young horse which would be a pity as he has bags of potential. In the same race, Dancing Tornado looked the winner turning but found disappointingly little. He may not have stayed but he has looked a bridle merchant in the past.
Pointers: Tailor’s Hall took a while to come to hand over hurdles and it looks a similar case over fences. The 7yo has now had three qualifying runs for a chase handicap mark and given that he’s never finished better than fourth, it’s a fair to expect his rating will be a good bit lower than his hurdles form. He could be a big player in staying handicap chases. Finger Onthe Pulse put up a bold show in the Grade 2 novice, attempting to make all and finding only Glencove Marina too good. His record left-handed now reads:1213111U2 and the only horses to beat him going anti-clockwise are Iktitaf (3-time Grade 1 winner), Nicanor (dual Grade 1 winner) and Glencove Marina (Grade 1 winner). You get the picture. Perce Rock suffered a crunching fall at the last in the same race when his stamina gave out. Anyone who knew the horse’s form cycle wouldn’t have been surprised as his record first time out is:111 and on other starts is:428FF. He’ll be hard to stop on his seasonal debut next term, no matter what the company. Mister Top Notch put up monster display off top-weight in the Leopardstown Chase, surviving a bad mistake 2 out. That took his course record to:1F11, with the fall coming when he looked like winning the Grade 2 novice chase on this card last year. With such impressive track form, he could be a dark one for the Irish Hennessy. Viso was not surprisingly stuffed in the Pierse Hurdle as he’d gone up 25lbs since winning at Punchestown in October and was totally unsuited by the heavy ground. He’s an improved performer and can win a handicap or two from his flat mark of 63. In the same race, Leonard Whitmore showed again he can train his small string when Brave Right went close to landing the spoils. His comments in the Racing Post read: ‘He’s an outsider and, while nobody seems to give him a chance, we wouldn’t be running him if we thought the same.’ His words in the future can be taken at face value.
Saturday, January 12, 2008
Weekend NAP - January 12th/13th
Leopardstown 3.00 Sunday - Splurge
Last Week: Woodbine Willie (3rd at 9/4f)
Level Stakes Loss: -1
Last Week: Woodbine Willie (3rd at 9/4f)
Level Stakes Loss: -1
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Thyestes Chase, Gowran Park January 25th - The Key Trends
- The last 7 winners carried less than 10-11 before jockeys’ claims.
- No horse rated higher than 133 has won in a decade.
- With the exception of course specialist and dual winner Bob Treacy (7 wins at Gowran Park), no horse older than nine has won since 1997.
- David Casey has won the race thrice in the last 6 years.
- Recent form doesn’t matter a jot. 2 of the last 10 winners were pulled up last time, another was a faller while a further trio were unplaced.
- All of the last 10 winners ran in the previous month.
- Unexposed runners do well. 8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 5 runs in handicap chases.
- Proven stamina is an absolute must. All of the last 10 winners had won over at least the bare 3 miles, while 7 of the 10 had won over further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were in their first or second season over fences. The exceptions were Bob Treacy in 2001 and Dun Doire, who was a third season chaser in name only having been handicapped as a 5yo in 2004 and had just 8 chase runs before winning in 2006.
- No horse rated higher than 133 has won in a decade.
- With the exception of course specialist and dual winner Bob Treacy (7 wins at Gowran Park), no horse older than nine has won since 1997.
- David Casey has won the race thrice in the last 6 years.
- Recent form doesn’t matter a jot. 2 of the last 10 winners were pulled up last time, another was a faller while a further trio were unplaced.
- All of the last 10 winners ran in the previous month.
- Unexposed runners do well. 8 of the last 10 winners had no more than 5 runs in handicap chases.
- Proven stamina is an absolute must. All of the last 10 winners had won over at least the bare 3 miles, while 7 of the 10 had won over further.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were in their first or second season over fences. The exceptions were Bob Treacy in 2001 and Dun Doire, who was a third season chaser in name only having been handicapped as a 5yo in 2004 and had just 8 chase runs before winning in 2006.
Friday, January 4, 2008
Weekend NAP - January 5th/6th
I'm going to try (and probably fail miserably) to suggest a NAP each weekend for 2008, with the (likely) losses being done to a level stakes at SP. This 'masterplan' will probably last until late January by which time I will have accumulated 4 losings NAPs in a row... Anyway here goes:
Naas Sunday 1.45 - Woodbine Willie
This lad may only have run in an ordinary novice last time but it was graded race in all but name and he was unlucky not to win it outright when an awkward landing at the last cost him valuable momentum. I much prefer him to Trafford Lad who has to concede weight all around and I have already voiced my concerns about the value of the form of the Barry & Sandra Kelly below. Mr Muji is held on form while Made In Taipan tends to race with the choke out and may not get home, so Venalmar could prove the biggest danger.
Naas Sunday 1.45 - Woodbine Willie
This lad may only have run in an ordinary novice last time but it was graded race in all but name and he was unlucky not to win it outright when an awkward landing at the last cost him valuable momentum. I much prefer him to Trafford Lad who has to concede weight all around and I have already voiced my concerns about the value of the form of the Barry & Sandra Kelly below. Mr Muji is held on form while Made In Taipan tends to race with the choke out and may not get home, so Venalmar could prove the biggest danger.
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