Sunday, November 30, 2008

John Durkan Memorial Chase, Punchestown December 7th - The Key Trends

- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 9.
- All but 1 of the last 10 winners was rated 150 or higher prior to winning this.
- Buck Rogers caused a shock (and busted more than a few trends) when landing this at 16/1 in 1999 but none of the other winners since 1998 was returned any bigger than 7/1. 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 2/1 or shorter.
- Every winner since 1998 had run in the previous 5 weeks.
- The last 8 winners had run either once or twice in the current season.
- While 2 of the recent winners failed to complete on their most recent outing, the other 8 all finished in the first three last time out.
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Punchestown.
- All of the winners in the last decades had won a race over this intermediate trip, i.e. between 19 and 21 furlongs. 8 were multiple winners over this sort of distance.
- Grade 1 form is important if not crucial – 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a top level contest, all over fences.

Meeting Review: Fairyhouse Winter 'Festival' - November 29th & 30th

Positives: With fog enveloping much of the track, I couldn’t see much of 2m novice hurdle won by The Last Derby on Saturday but I liked what I saw; Eoin Griffin’s 4yo running out an easy winner over the decent Zarinava (received 5lbs) all despite having his first run over hurdles and being off the track since June and encountering ground much softer than he’d ever run on. He’ll be winning again soon, perhaps in pattern company. Luska Lad was another whose win on Saturday is literally clouded in mystery but it’s hard not to like the way the 4yo defied a double penalty to complete a 3-timer in the bumper. The form of his previous 2 wins had worked out well with subsequent winners Realt Dubh, The Bishop Looney and Part Presenting emerging from behind him and he looks a smart novice hurdle prospect for the remainder of the season. The Royal Bond was run in a time almost 11 seconds slower than the opening juvenile hurdle on Sunday and there’s no doubt in my mind that the runner-up Donnas Palm was most inconvenienced by the slow pace; he’d run out an impressive winner on his hurdles bow at Naas but needed plenty of stoking up to get on top there and already looks as if he wants a bit further. Even so, this was an excellent performance for a horse having just his second run over hurdles and it would be no surprise to see him reverse form with Hurricane Fly in a race with more emphasis on stamina. It’s impossible not to respect a horse like Trafford Lad because he just keeps winning; it’s rarely impressive (his 5 1/2l win in the Drinmore was his widest margin of victory so far!) but this brought his career record to 6 wins from 9 runs. Going up in trip won’t be a problem and nor will better ground and he sets the standard for the staying Irish novices at this point. Savitha [WON 4/1 - Leopardstown, 15/2/09 over hurdles] has had jumping issues since she threw away a graded novice at Punchestown last November with a blunder 4 out but as a result she’s well-treated over fences and was unlucky to be nutted on the line in the 2m handicap chase. She was given plenty to do here but made up her ground effortlessly and might be worth trying back over hurdles – a race that comprises fewer and smaller obstacles can only be in her favour. The Mac’s J Racing Syndicate endured the agony and the ecstasy with their star Macs Joy as well as plenty more agony with the likes of Valley Of Giants and Minnesota Leader but they look to have a horse to go to war with in Hugo De Vindecy. The French-bred ran out an impressive 7l winner of the 4yo bumper and it could well prove a decent race as a number of top yards were represented. A half-brother to the smart Rodock, he hails from a real soft ground family and could be up to defying a penalty in a winners' bumper.
Negatives: Alpine Eagle (11/10) and Mythical Prince (11/2) took out of chunk of the market in the opening race of the 2-day fixture but could manage only third and fifth respectively – the Cork maiden hurdle they fought out looks a weak event in hindsight and despite their high-profile connections and decent flat form, neither are anything special over hurdles. Jessica Harrington had another short-priced disappointment as Cork All Star got turned over at 5/4 in the 2m2f conditions hurdle – in 9 hurdles starts, he’s won just once at odds of 1/3 and has been a beaten favourite on 5 occasions. The bookies must love him and he’s long since paid back the Cheltenham Bumper losses. Yield For No One was as well fancied as anything in the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle but he finished a well-beaten fifth and may have done his winning for now; this was his fifth run over hurdles and he appears to lack scope for improvement at this point of his season. Paul Carberry got it wrong in choosing Fisher Bridge over Donnas Palm in the Royal Bond and his mount finished last. The evidence of his previous run suggested he’s a Grade 3 animal at best and while he may prefer better ground (by Singspiel) the 5yo hardly appeals as one to follow. It was no surprise to see Rare Bob hit the frame in the Drinmore despite seemingly being out of his depth. This was the eighth time in 12 outings he’s made the three but he’s still without a win and certainly isn’t one to be taking a short price about in a beginners chase next time.
Pointers: Though both looked well-treated, neither Sophocles nor Perce Rock were ever likely to win the Ladbrokes Handicap Hurdle on Saturday. Their reasons for defeat were different – Sophocles needs much faster ground and Perce Rock was never seriously put into the race which was surprising given that he raced with the pace throughout his novice chase season and won first time out each of the last 3 years. I wouldn’t give up on either yet. There’s every chance Catch Me may have done his winning for now in landing the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle because a change in trip is unlikely to suit – he doesn’t jump well enough for the top 2-mile races and is a non-stayer over three. I’d like to see him sweep the board in the two and half mile graded races around the likes of Navan as he’d love the testing ground that often prevails there – his record on yielding/soft or worse since arriving in Ireland reads:11112U11411. Willie Mullins isn’t supposed to have his string in top order at this time of the year but his form figures over the weekend (155341FPP13056311343442) confirm his yard are in excellent form and the trainers championship looks at his mercy.

Weekend NAP - November 30th

Fairyhouse 2.10 - Catch Me

Season to date: +17.3

Sunday, November 23, 2008

Meeting Review: Navan, November 23rd

Positives: The form of her maiden hurdle win at Thurles made Dunroe Lady look one of the better handicapped horses off 95 in the 2m4f handicap hurdle but the 4yo has stamina doubts at trip having been well beaten on both her tries beyond 17f. Her jockey obviously didn’t have any doubts on that score and had her up with the pace throughout and she ran out an impressive 6l winner. With all the right horses filling the frame, the form looks solid and this improving type may not be done yet. The second in the same race Tom Doodle was having his first run since winning at the Listowel Festival in 2007 and should strip a lot fitter for this. He has enough back form – including a good third to Chomba Womba – to suggest he can win a handicap. The 2m maiden hurdle won by Mikael D’Haguenet [WON 3/1 - Navan, 14/12/08] [WON 1/3 - Naas, 4/1/09] [WON 4/11 - Punchestown, 1/2/09] [WON 5/2 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] lacked any real strength in depth but there was plenty to like about the 4yo’s performance all the same. His yard rarely fires on all cylinders at this time of the year but they still saw fit to back him from a morning price of 6/1 into 11/4 on course and the result was never really in doubt; he travelled very well and overcome a peck at the second last quickly to fly up the hill. He looks ripe for a step up in grade and it could be significant that his owner (Mrs S Ricci) don’t tend to have bad horses – her only runners with Mullins in the last 5 years were Pomme Tiepy and Themoonandsixpence and it’s likely that this lad cost a few quid. For the second time in as many starts over fences, Good Fella [WON 9/10 - Fairyhouse, 1/1] wasn’t seriously put into the race and is probably in a lot better form than his recent runs suggest. Patrick Mooney’s 7yo looks like he’s being ridden to get a handicap mark for chases and will be of interest as soon as he gets one as he was very consistent in handicap hurdles around 2m4f last spring.
Negatives: Roches Point will undoubtedly be seen to better effect on a faster ground and an easier track but he should still have managed to win what looked a weak bumper beforehand – he looks a real bridle horse and is one to be against if encountering similar ground in the future.
Pointers: I have to admit to being bitterly disappointed with Alpha Ridge in the ‘Monksfield’ but given that he finished a distance and 27ls clear of the 125-rated No Full and Sarteano, there’s every chance he ran his race and Pandorama is simply a superstar. The Meade horse refused to settle down the back as the field couldn’t go fast enough for him but he still pulled 26ls clear of Alpha Ridge without being extended. A conservative rating of the form puts Pandorama on a mark in the high 15os and that’s not even allowing for the ease of his success – the only worry with him regarding Cheltenham is if he runs again in the Grade 1 over course-and-distance in 3 weeks time, it will be his fourth outing before Christmas which is a lot of racing for a young horse. The Troytown may have lacked a real handicap blot but it was very keenly contested and a few of those involved in the finish have strong patterns to their form – Notre Pere runs very well on soft ground or worse, with form figures reading:222113321F41 while the fourth Vic Venturi finished plenty close enough for a horse that is has never won left-handed, his form figures on right-handed tracks reading:21113126P25982. Jayo is another horse who may find improvement for going back right-handed though there was nothing wrong with his narrow defeat behind Top Of The Rock in the 2m1f Beginners Chase. He will have little problem winning a maiden chase the other way around, where his form figures read:5211PF113. Your Sum Man was made favourite for the same race on the back of a good chase debut behind Drinmore hopeful Forpadydeplasterer but he had a massive negative to overcome with his trainer’s stable form – Tony Mullins has trained just 1 winner from 80 runners over jumps since May.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Weekend NAP - November 23rd

Navan 1.00 - Alpha Ridge

Season to date: + 18.3

Sunday, November 16, 2008

William Hill Troytown Handicap Chase, Navan October 23rd – The Key Trends

- The last 9 winners carried no more than 10-9 to victory. In the same period, all winners were in receipt of at least 18lbs from the top-weight.
- All of the winners in the last decade were aged between 6 and 9.
- Fancied horses dominate affairs in the feature of the Navan jumps season. Only 1 winner since 1998 was returned at a double-figure price (Cane Brake at 10/1 in 2006) and 8 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 11/2 or shorter.
- I’d tend to be against summer jumpers here – just 1 of the last 9 winners ran had run more than twice since Punchestown and that was the ludicrously well-handicapped Cloudy Bays who won this off 119 but finished the season rated 152.
- Staying chasers often need an outing to get themselves fit and preference would be for horses with prep run under their belt – with the exception of Lyreen Wonder, who won this off long breaks in 2000 & 2001, the other winners in the last decade had acquitted themselves well in the previous 2 months.
- Ryhane had had 12 handicap chase runs prior to landing the 1998 renewal but since then all of the winners had run 9 or fewer times in handicaps over fences.
- Second-season chasers have won 7 of the last 9 runnings with the 2 exceptions being lightly-raced third-season chasers.
- Respect previous course form. 6 of the last 8 winners had already won at Navan while another had finished second.
- While proven stamina over 3 miles isn’t totally essential, contenders should have at least suggested they are likely to get home. All of the winners since 1998 had won over at least 22f while 7 had won over the race distance.

Weekend NAP - November 16th

Cork 2.25 - Tinakellylad

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Weekend NAP - November 9th

Navan 1.55 - Catch Me

Last Week: Almass, Won @ 11/4

Season to date: +16.5

Sunday, November 2, 2008

Meetings Review: Down Royal & Leopardstown, November 1st & 2nd

Positives: Despite a few of the market leaders disappointing, the opening maiden at Down Royal is likely to prove informative and I was taken by the performance of the third Oh So Humbel. Keen on the way to post and in the race, the locally-trained 6yo certainly had a willing partner for his front-running tactics in 7lb claimer Andrew Thornton who has already shown a liking for getting on with things in his young career. Considering the way he raced, the Brian Hamilton-trained gelding did very well to hold on for third and should be winning if learning to settle better. The opening 7f maiden at Leopardstown had some interesting newcomers but most failed to shine as the experienced Oasis Sunset stole the race from the front on ground it was hard to come from behind on. One horse that did make up considerable late ground was the Tommy Stack-trained Wanna and she is should benefit from a hike in trip or more forceful tactics; a well-related daughter of Danehill Dancer, she will certainly be winning races. Solwhit will be an obvious one for a big handicap hurdle following his win the November Handicap but the hurdler who really caught my eye in that race was Won In The Dark and is probably the key horse to follow of the weekend because his excellent run in fifth was achieved with almost everything against him. He was 13lbs out of the handicap, having his first run since April on ground he doesn’t like and sweated up and raced keenly yet still managed to run a cracker, finishing just outside the frame. This run will tee him up nicely for a return to hurdling and though not 100% straightforward (he has swished his tail in the past), the 4yo will surely be able to exploit a mark of 135 over sticks. The Greatwood at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting looks an ideal target and he would also have a better chance of getting his favoured ground in England. I wasn’t at Cork on Sunday but it was impossible not to be impressed by the run of Alpha Ridge [WON 7/1 - Gowran Park, 22/1/09] in the 3-mile novice hurdle as Paul Nolan’s 6yo went off in front and simply broke his rivals’ hearts with a display of excellent jumping and relentless galloping. The run put me in the mind of Celestial Wave and like that excellent mare, Alpha Ridge is very well-suited by bad ground – his form figures on soft or worse read:13111. It will take a very smart horse to beat him when conditions are in his favour like they were at Cork.

Negatives: In getting turned over at odds of 6/4 in the Down Royal opener, Indian Spring extended his losing streak to 14 starts and confirmed impressions that he is a pig. I can’t have a horse that has twice finished second in a Grade 1 yet can’t win a maiden and the way he travelled best of all at the third last only to find little says that he’s not in love with the game. He’d even had a run on the flat to bring him to peak fitness, so that can’t be used as an excuse either. Silverhand may have produced one of the most eye-catching racecourse debuts in recent years when overcoming trouble-in-running to win at Punchestown last October but he’s been hugely disappointing since and ran the race of an ungenuine horse at Down Royal on Saturday. Held up and racing lazily throughout, he was first off the bridle yet gave little response to Paul Carberry’s urgings but deigned to run on late in the day when the jockey had all but given up hope. This isn’t the first time the 4yo has shown temperament – he was none willing to go by Beau Michael at Fairyhouse on his second run – and looks one to swerve. Al Qasi didn’t get the run of the race in the Knockaire Stakes but there’s no way he would have beaten the impressive Almass anyway and the fact remains that he’s forgotten how to win; after a career that began with 4 wins from 6 starts, he’s won just once in 14 outings since. He runs in Ireland enough for him to be interest to us and looks a bit of a twilight horse, caught between handicaps and pattern races, who perhaps doesn’t really see out 7f.

Pointers: Chateau D’eau has yet to deliver on the promise of his 2 bumper wins over hurdles but there were again extenuating circumstances at Down Royal; not for the first time, slow ground was against him and he looked keyed up for his seasonal debut. A drifter in the betting, he raced far too keenly and was never going to get home but should benefit from this experience and would certainly have possibilities back on a sound surface. Despite being run at a farcical pace and less than 3ls covering the first five home, I’m going to take a contrarian view and suggest that the valuable 2m Down Royal handicap hurdle will prove to be a decent piece of form. The winner Sole Bonne Femme may well have gotten a soft lead but his defeat of Save The Bacon at Navan last February suggested he was well-in on 102 while the world and his wife knows that Arc Bleu (backed from a morning price of 2/1 into 9/10 on track) is a blot on the weights on 104. He’ll need to brush up on his jumping to exploit that rating though a step up in trip could also help while the second Right Or Wrong has no problems in the department – he jumped expertly and his showing the benefits of an off-season wind operation. The fourth Lazio had run in two very hot races before turning out here and though tricky to win with, the 7yo is certainly on a decent mark while Quartino gives the form a very solid look. With the main contenders finishing in a heap, the handicapper can’t be too harsh and I’ll certainly be keeping an eye on the above horses in the coming weeks. Race conditions left the 140-rated Finger Onthe Pulse with an impossible task of giving the 151-rated Noland 3lbs in the Grade 3 Chase but the 7yo didn’t help himself by sweating up beforehand and doing plenty in front. He actually ran a cracker to finish second (beaten 12ls) and it will be interesting to see what the English handicapper does with him when the Paddy Power weights are revealed this week – going back left-handed will certainly suit (all but 1 of his 7 career wins have come that way around) as will some decent ground. With the first four finishing in a pile and the third Masterofthehorse running poorly in the Racing Post Trophy, the form of the Beresford Stakes looked pretty dubious until the runner-up Mourayan gave it a timely boost by landing an admittedly weak renewal of the Eyrefield Stakes in comfortable fashion. The horse that defeated him at the Curragh, his stable-mate Sea The Stars, has always been well-regarded by the Oxx camp and though his form isn’t anything wonderful, he has impressed with his way of going about things thus far in his career. Mythical Prince was fancied in the closing 1m4f handicap but Noel Meade’s charge again ran poorly left-handed, beating only 1 rival home, his figures on left-handed courses now reading:7900. Excluding maidens, his figures right-handed are a much better:11221 and he would be of interest when racing that way around again.

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Weekend NAP - Sunday, November 2nd

Leopardstown 2.15 - Almass

Last week: Sigma Digital, Won @ 5/4

Season to date: +13.7