Sunday, November 30, 2008

John Durkan Memorial Chase, Punchestown December 7th - The Key Trends

- 9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 9.
- All but 1 of the last 10 winners was rated 150 or higher prior to winning this.
- Buck Rogers caused a shock (and busted more than a few trends) when landing this at 16/1 in 1999 but none of the other winners since 1998 was returned any bigger than 7/1. 6 of the last 10 winners were sent off at 2/1 or shorter.
- Every winner since 1998 had run in the previous 5 weeks.
- The last 8 winners had run either once or twice in the current season.
- While 2 of the recent winners failed to complete on their most recent outing, the other 8 all finished in the first three last time out.
- 6 of the last 10 winners had won at Punchestown.
- All of the winners in the last decades had won a race over this intermediate trip, i.e. between 19 and 21 furlongs. 8 were multiple winners over this sort of distance.
- Grade 1 form is important if not crucial – 8 of the last 10 winners had already won a top level contest, all over fences.

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