Positives: Buenos Dias had enough decent form in France to say an Irish mark of 104 was exploitable in the 2m handicap hurdle on Saturday but his price on Betfair suggested that it wasn’t to be his day and the 4yo beat just three rivals home. However, this looked the run of an unfit horse as he jumped and travelled well before blowing up and can be expected to improve for this. A slight drop in the ratings won’t do his chances of winning any harm and he promises to be suited by soft ground. Fantoche wasn’t brilliant over his fences in the 2m1f beginners’ chase but in winning by a length he achieved the rare feat of landing a race in 3 codes (flat, hurdles, fences) in a calendar year. It’s on the level where he’ll be of most immediate interest as Seamus Heffernan gave him an uncharacteristically negative ride last time in the Cesarewitch, finishing well to grab fifth, and the 6yo (who isn’t harshly treated off 86) looks a live one for the November Handicap at Leopardstown in few weeks time. Baltiman looked ungenuine over hurdles but he’s been a reformed character over fences and for the second time as many chase starts, he found plenty when challenged by a seemingly dangerous rival. Already a much better chaser than hurdler, he could yet win another small graded race on soft ground or worse, conditions where his form figures read:32241211.
Negatives: The graded chase at Gowran saw Conna Castle and Knight Legend renew rivalry from Listowel last September and the first-named was inexplicably sent off as 15/8 favourite, backed in from a morning price of 4/1. I say inexplicable because to me the pair’s careers have gone separate ways since; Knight Legend marking himself as a solid graded performer while Conna Castle looking ever more inconsistent, though admittedly he did win shocking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup in the interim. Even allowing for a few non-runners, this was a significant move but Conna Castle again disappointed, being pulled up before the second last and he’s never one to back at a short price. Footy Facts was a well-fancied 11/8 shot in the graded novice chase at Tipp but he could be turning into something of a bookies’ horse; having won 4 of his first 6 starts, he’s won just once in his last 8 outings. His jumping was poor here on conditions that should have suited and he’s unlikely to prove competitive in graded class and connections have already made sure he’s going to receive a pretty lofty initial handicap mark. Having blotted his copybook by sweating up at Galway, Lucky Wish proceeded to do something similar at Tipperary and looks one to be wary off. He was keen in the preliminaries, wearing cotton in his ears and had to be taken down to post early. In the race itself, he was a disappointing last of five and he’s one to swerve at the minute, despite what the market may say (he’s been well backed on his last two starts).
Pointers: Alickadoo backed up his reappearance win at Ballinrobe with a tough success in the 3m handicap chase at Gowran and the form of the Ballinrobe race (22nd September) continues to look strong; the runner-up Rory’s Sister won by an easy 12ls on her next start too. Perhaps the horse to take from the race is Tubber Gael Holly who jumped poorly on that occasion but still had place claims before unseating at the last – she has since finished runner-up to Mac Robin at Clonmel and still has 6lbs in hand on her hurdles mark and her form figures on good or faster read:0221014132. There was plenty of talk for a number of runners in the debutantes’ bumper at Gowran and with the three market principals fighting out the finish, there’s every chance this was an above-average affair. The form could be worth following but I’m not convinced the winner is the one to take out of the race; like many from the Michael O’Brien yard, he was primed for his debut (sweated up beforehand) and may not go on from this. The Concorde Stakes saw confirmation of two horses as course specialists: Psalm loves it at Tipperary (form figures:111) while Jumbajukiba doesn’t really show much away from the Curragh these days where his figures read:41118211 with the sole poor run coming over 10f, a trip that is well beyond this free-going sort. Previous form suggested Megans Joy would be ill-suited by the heavy ground at Tipperary but perhaps small field conditions races are her ideal conditions; she isn’t the best jumper and never got competitive last time in the Galway Hurdle but the more sedate pace showed her in a better light here.
Monday, October 6, 2008
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