Leopardstown Christmas Festival - A Statistical Analysis, 2001 - 2007

Punters’ Percentages
Criteria
• Handicap winners that had a prep run - 96%
• Open Graded winners aged 8 or younger - 87%
• Graded winners that finished first, second or third last time - 81%
• Maiden Hurdle winners sent off 9/2 or shorter - 76%
• Grade 1 Novice Chase winners aged 6 - 71%
• Edward O’Grady-trained runners placed in graded novices - 54%
• Meade & Mullins-trained horses placed in maiden hurdles - 44%
• Dessie Hughes-trained horses first or second in graded races - 43%
• Graded winners without a run since October - 3%
• Handicap winners older than 8 - 2%

Graded Races
With 9 black type races over the 4 days, Leopardstown provides extensive opportunities for top-class horses in both the novice and open categories. The key here is to focus on the younger horses; in the past 7 years just graded winner was aged in double figures and that was Istabraq in the 2001 Festival Hurdle. The three-time Champion Hurdle made heavy weather of landing odds of 4/11 by a head on that occasion and when we consider the only horses to win graded races as 9yos were also superstars called Moscow Flyer, Beef Or Salmon and Limestone (all returned odds-on), it seems sensible to focus on the 8yos and younger who have won 27 of the 31 open graded races run since 2001. Such figures would be a negative against the likes of The Listener and War Of Attrition (both 9yos) in the Lexus and Brave Inca in the Festival Hurdle, though it should noted that Colm Murphy’s veteran has a superlative record at the course.
A recent run is also pretty much a necessity with only Istabraq and Rosaker managing to win a graded event without having had a run since October; 57 of the 59 graded winners (novices and open) had an outing of some sort in the previous three months. There are certainly no Istabraqs among the entries for this year’s big events and Neptune Collonges, the likely favourite for the Lexus, could have plenty on his plate on what will be his first run since Punchestown. Big Zeb, who looks sure to be among the market leaders in the Dial-A-Bet Chase, returns off a similar absence.
Dessie Hughes is a force to be reckoned with in all graded races – since 2001, 10 of his 23 runners have finished first or second with the likes of Central House and Grangeclare Lark serving him well. Among the novices, Edward O’Grady is a name to note with his 13 runners yielding 3 winners, 3 seconds and a third.
In the two Grade 1 novice chases, the Durkan New Homes over two miles and the Knight Frank over three, it’s paid to concentrate on six-year-olds. They’ve won 10 of the last 14 runnings of both races and all but one since 2003. 6yos of note for this year’s races include staying types Cooldine and Trafford Lad and the speedier Made In Taipan (a winner at the meeting last year) and Forpadydeplasterer.
Keep an eye on the placed horses from the Royal Bond if they take their chance in the recently upgraded Future Champions Novice Hurdle on the 27th – 4 of the last 7 winners finished placed in the Fairyhouse event earlier in the month. This year’s renewal of the Fairyhouse race was run at a very slow pace and it would be no surprise to see Donnas Palm, a national hunt type who was particularly inconvenienced by how the race was run, reverse form with the winner Hurricane Fly.

Maiden Hurdles
Thinking outside the box is crucial to backing winners but it’s not always wise to be too clever and maiden hurdles at Leopardstown are a case in point; recently, finding the winner has been an object lesson in sticking to the obvious. All 5 of last year’s maiden hurdle winners were sent off at the head of the market and none had finished worse than third on their last outing. This may well be an extreme example but past trends also illustrate the benefits of sticking with in-form, fancied runners.
Of the 34 maiden hurdles run at the Christmas meeting since 2001, only 1 winner was returned at bigger than 10/1 and 26 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter. 23 of the 34 winners had finished in the first four over hurdles last time out. Given the size and competitive nature of the fields, it is sensible to give classy bumper graduates making their hurdles debut the swerve – they almost always lack the seasoning for races like this and only 1 of the 24 fancied (i.e. sent off at single figure prices) bumper horses debuting over hurdles since 2001 managed to win. Avoiding horses that were given what are politely termed ‘educational rides’ last time is another good idea as such ‘eye-catchers’ are invariably over-bet and don’t have the form to back it up.
In the trainers’ corner, it’s no surprise that Noel Meade (5 wins and 6 places from 25 runners) and Willie Mullins (3 wins and 5 places from 18 runners) do well. Realt Dubh [WON 9/10 - Leopardstown, 27/12] looks a likely type from the Meade yard this time around – he caught a tartar in subsequent Grade 1 winner Mikael D’Haguenet on his hurdles bow and is suitably obvious here. Zaarito, placed in the Champion Bumper in March, could well follow in the footsteps of a similar type in Sophocles who went one better than his second place on debut when landing a maiden at last year’s meeting.

Handicaps
With just 7 handicaps due to be run over the 4 days, it could be said that such races take a back seat at the meeting though each and every race of this type is fiercely contested. The same basic tenets used for graded races apply here: concentrate on younger horses that have the benefit of a recent outing. Of the 47 handicaps run at the Festival since 2001, just one was won by a horse older than 8. It’s a similar story with regard to a having a prep run – only Mansony, a subsequent dual Grade 1 winner who had upwards of 20lbs in hand, could land a handicap on his seasonal reappearance.
Punters looking for a single handicap with strong back patterns could do a lot worse than focus on the 2m1f handicap chase on St. Stephen’s Day. All of the last 7 winners were sent off 9/2 or shorter, were aged between 6 and 8 and had finished first or second if they got around last time out.