The Pierse Hurdle, Leopardstown January 11th - The Key Trends

- The last 10 renewals have been run on ground no faster than yielding/soft ground. However, the going on the hurdle tracks on the final day of the Christmas Meeting was described as yielding and it would be no surprise if we have a decent surface for the first time in a while.
- Just 1 winner of the last 13 years carried more than 11-1 to victory. 11 of the last 13 winners carried 10-11 or less before jockeys’ claims.
- No winner has been rated higher than 127 since 1996.
- 6 of the last 7 winners were rated between 114 and 119. The entries falling into that rating bracket this year are: Lazio, Mourne Rambler, Siege Of Ennis, Tiger Cry, Carthalawn, Pom Flyer, Robin Du Bois, Sanglote, Alpine Eagle, Maralan, Sophocles, Fen Game and Mullach Na Si.
- Only one 5yo has won since 1997. All the other winners in the last 12 years were either six (5 winners), seven (4 winners) or eight (2 winners).
- Give preference to in-form horses – 10 of the last 13 victors had finished first or second last time out including all of the last five.
- Try to strike the balance between a horse that is race-fit yet hasn’t been over-raced in the run-up to the Pierse. All bar 1 of the last 13 winners had run in the last 50 days but none had more than 4 runs since the beginning of October.
- Unexposed contenders dominate; none of the winners since 1997 had run more than 9 times over hurdles. By the same token, none had more than 6 runs in handicaps.
- Avoid handicap debutantes; only 1 of the last 13 winners was having its first run in a handicap. On The Way Out, Alpine Eagle, Vital Plot and Fisher Bridge are high-profile contenders who may have their first handicap run here.
- Look to speed horses – just 1 of the last 13 winners had won beyond 17f before landing this valuable prize.