Saturday, January 10, 2009

Weekend NAP - January 11th, 2009

Leopardstown 1.45 - Finger Onthe Pulse

Season to date: +1.5

Last Weekend: Jayo, WON @6/4

Finger Onthe Pulse is the definition of a trend horse, his form figures on left-handed tracks reading:1213111U21. The only horses to have beaten him on anti-clockwise tracks are Grade 1 winners Iktitaf, Nicanor and Glencove Marina and he will certainly enjoy this return to handicap company, not that his run in a Grade 3 last time was too shabby - he finished second to subsequent John Durkan winner Noland with the Troytown and Welsh National hero Notre Pere back in fourth.
However, it's the form of his Jewson win at last year's Cheltenham Festival that really supports his chance here; the horses to chase him home, Barbers Shop and Possol, are now rated 159 and 143 respectively, suggesting he's well-handicapped off 144. The lack of a recent run is of little concern as his form figures after a break of 2 months or more read:1F110U311 and with mark and conditions all in his favour, a big run is expected. The unexposed Kilcrea Castle may prove his biggest danger but his overall form suggests he should be getting more than 5lbs from the favourite.
The featured Pierse Hurdle is typically difficult with my shortlist comprising the trio of Psycho, Fen Game and Alpine Eagle. I suspect Psycho remains a well-handicapped horse and a repeat of his effort when falling here on Hennessy Day or his County Hurdle second should be good enough, while Fen Game is officially 6lbs well-in and can reverse form with Imperial Hills. Alpine Eagle goes against my trends-based approach but his trainer does well here with few runners (since 1996, she's had 2 winners, a second and a fifth from 8 runners) and the 5yo looks well-treated if over his Limerick exertions.
Finally, Coscorrig is of significant interest in the first. In a field made up of chase debutantes and disappointing types like Jaamid, she has as good a form as any. Her Naas run when third to Made In Taipan was excellent and can be upgraded on the basis that she tried to make all; this easier track and faster ground should suit and she can make a bold bid from the front. Tissue prices of around 7/1 seriously underestimate her chance.

No comments: