Tuesday, April 7, 2009

Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle: Fairyhouse, April 14th – The Key Trends

- Subsequent three-time Grade 1 winner Macs Joy is by far the best recent winner of this race and not surprisingly busted a few trends; he lumbered 11-0 to victory in 2004 but no other winner since 1998 has carried more than 10-4 to win.
- Macs Joy is also the only winner rated higher than 120 win in the last 11 renewals. 6 of the last 11 winners were rated between 102 and 106 but with the top weight in this year’s race due to run off 151 such low weights may struggle to get into the race.
- 6yos are the dominant age group; since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners, 6 runners-up plus 4 further places.
- Arthur Moore has a sensational record in the race – he’s had 3 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 more places. His entries this year are Sole Bonne Femme, Native Clan, Meritorious and Fistoulig. Charlie Swan, with 2 wins and 1 third, is next best.
- Leopardstown handicap form works out very well here. Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here in 2001 and 2002 respectively but the 2m event run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ has been an even better guide with 5 of the last 10 winners having their most recent outing in that race, including last year’s winner Major Sensation.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners had more than 3 runs since January 1st.
- Unexposed, improving handicappers have come to the fore lately. Of the last 8 winners, none had more than 4 starts in handicap hurdles.
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners was held up during the race.

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