The Hennessy, Leopardstown February 8th 2009 - The Key Trends

- Official ratings have been a fabulous guide here. 9 of the last 11 winners here were rated at least 160 with one of the exceptions, Beef Or Salmon in 2003, yet to have been given a handicap mark; he had however won the Lexus on his most recent start achieving a Racing Post Rating of 163+.
- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.
- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.
- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.
- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form.
- All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase.
- Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.
- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.
- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.