Deloitte Novice Hurdle - Leopardstown 8th: The Key Trends

- Six-year-olds have dominated this race with 7 of the last 10 winners as well as 9 of the 13 placed horses.
- This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.
- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks.
- The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.
- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one.
- Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs.
- Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.
- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.