This year’s renewal of the Christmas Greetings Handicap Chase, due to be run over 3 miles at Navan on December 9th, was cancelled due to the chase course being waterlogged. The 5-day entry for the race seemed unusually hot and it is worth having a look through the horses that were engaged as a number appeared well-treated sorts.
The race has been good guide to some of the better handicaps later in the season of late – last year’s second One Four Shannon went on to win the big staying chase at the Punchestown Festival while the fourth home GVA Ireland won the Midlands National. The 2004 renewal was even hotter, with dual National winner Numbersixvalverde coming home in front.
The full list of entries is as follows, and those in bold look particularly interesting in coming weeks: Point Barrow, Livingstonebramble, Star Clipper, Prince Of Tara, Homer Wells, Black Apalachi, Dublin Hunter, Some Legend, Luteur Collonges, Camptect, Sherkin Island, Brave Eagle, Over Siberia, Whatatouch, Julius, Farmer Grant [WON 5/1 - Naas, 11/3/07], Cavallo Classico, Giolla De, Forest Leaves, Derawar [WON 14/1 - Naas, 11/2/07] .
Firstly, a mention to a few ‘obvious’ horses who I don’t feel are particularly well weighted. Camptect is yet to win a chase in 5 attempts, but he has run a pair of terrific races in defeat in the Cork National and the Porterstown Chase, going down by less than a length in both cases. However, the penalty for these two narrow losses has seen his rise to 111, and a pair of very hard races may take their toll on a horse who his trainer has described as fragile. The fact that this 10yo has only had 17 career starts seems to confirm this. Giolla De [beaten 13/8f - Punchestown, 31/12/06, beaten 11/4f - Navan, 27/1/07] justified heavy market support to land an awful Clonmel race over 2m4f off 85 in November but has since been beaten off a 10lb higher mark at the same track 3 weeks later. He still has 18lbs in hand on his best hurdles mark but he seems flattered by that rating and could struggle in future.
Now, to those who may be capable to win off their current marks:
Prince Of Tara – The 2005 Troytown winner lost his way somewhat after his big win but his last run, when 5th in the Porterstown Chase under 11-7, seemed to suggest he is on his way back. Having had just 7 starts over fences, he is still unexposed, and he is a horse with plenty of class. Look out for him at Navan, a course where he has only once finished out of the first 4 in 7 course starts.
Brave Eagle – The reasons for believing Brave Eagle is well-handicapped are manifold. At his best, he aspired to a rating of 125 over sticks and had won 0ff 117 yet he now finds himself rated 105 over fences. His form over the bigger obstacles also suggests he’s a winner waiting to happen – he caught something of a tartar in Dun Doire last New Year’s Day, going down by just 2ls to the subsequent Thyestes and William Hill Chase winner. His last run in the Porterstown Chase was full of promise – a faller badly impeded him 7 out, and his rider seemed accept the situation but the horse had other ideas picking up into the straight before fading into sixth, beaten 12ls. The only concern is that he’s rising 12, but with just 22 career starts he has relatively few miles on the clock and should be capable of landing a staying event on his favoured soft ground.
Over Siberia – To all intents and purposes, Over Siberia looks a moderate animal but this former hunter chaser might just be able to win off 103. The form of his 4th to Whyso Mayo in a Gowran Hunters event last in April 2005 (just 4ls behind Well Tutored) suggest he has ability and he has been given some ‘strange’ rides on a few occasions, held up well off the pace before staying on to good effect at the death. This appears to suggest that he stays further than 3 miles, but his first attempt at a marathon trip at Fairyhouse was inconclusive.
Whatatouch – See weekend racing review of December 9th/10th.
Julius – Arthur Moore’s French-bred scooted home in a weak Limerick event last March and produced a reappearance full of promise at Punchestown last weekend. Jumping boldly in front, he held sway until turning in and held on well to hold 3rd place. The form of the race looks solid with fancied rivals Ballistraw and Vedelle coming home in front and this unexposed 9yo (just 9 career runs) should be winning again off 104.
Farmer Grant – Tony Martin landed a good touch with ex-hunter chaser Newbay Prop recently and Farmer Grant fits a similar bill. Both of the 7yo’s wins have come over 2 miles, but he was looking like the winner when tipping up 2 out over 3m3f at Fontwell last December and should stay 3 miles. He should be well able to win off 98 and runs at Navan this weekend.
Cavallo Classico – Noel Meade’s 5yo was no great shakes over hurdles but he seems to have found his proper métier over fences and ran out a good winner from Dosco last time. 3 miles looked to suit him well on that occasion, while he is versatile regarding ground having won on both heavy and good going.
Forest Leaves – Well backed on his handicap chase debut last time, Forest Leaves could only manage a 32ls 7th to Walk Over on that occasion. He’s better than he showed on that occasion though and a faster surface is sure to see the 6yo gelding to better effect.
Derawar – The second Arthur Moore inmate on this list, Derawar was a decent handicap hurdler a few years back landing a listed race over 2m4f at Navan and running with credit on a number of other occasions. He went close over 3 and a half miles at Downpatrick in March before flopping at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting when his yard was really struggling. His chase rating of 89 compares very favourably to a hurdle rating of 110 at his best and he can be placed to good effect by his handler.
Saturday, December 16, 2006
Monday, December 11, 2006
Weekend Review - December 9th/10th
In Compliance’s taking success in the John Durkan Chase was the highlight of last weekend’s racing, but there were also a number of runners in the lesser contests that should be monitored in the coming weeks.
9yo Whatatouch hadn’t been seen since beaten out of sight in the 2003 Paddy Power Chase but his run in the Proudstown Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f at Navan offered plenty of encouragement. Up with the pace early, he lost his place 5 out before staying on late to finish 7th of 13, suggesting he retains some of his ability of old. He will be of interest when going back to chasing for he remains relatively unexposed having had just 6 runs over fences. At his best he was rated 114 over fences, and has won off 108 but his mark over the larger obstacles is now just 101 which is should be low enough for him to win off. Formerly with Noel Meade, he has now gone to unknown handler Richard Walker and perhaps the move to a smaller yard where he can get more individual attention will work the treat. 3 miles should suit him best and he acts well at Navan – he has won on ground ranging from heavy to good, but a softer surface might be best coming back from his injury.
JP McManus has horses with a number of trainers throughout the land and relatively new addition to his team, Martin Brassil, looks to have a winner in waiting in the 7yo Final Orders. He ran Shanghide to a fast-diminishing head in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Punchestown, showing a likeable attitude under the Tony McCoy drive. Winner of his sole point-to-point in April 2004 (where he beat the 116-rated chaser Bravery by 12ls), he was a decent bumper horse back then and it’s interesting that he’s been persisted with having been off course for nearly 2 years. In a stable tour of his Curragh base in August, his talented trainer put him up as one to follow and Brassil has certainly shown his ability to get one back to their best after a break with Nickname. Relatively weak in the betting on Sunday, he is probably only coming back to himself and he will take some stopping in a maiden next time. A step up to 3 miles would not be problem, as he was briefly outpaced turning in and he will make a good chaser in time.
A number of well-treated ex-hunter chase horses have emerged in the handicaps recently, not least Bothar Na, Well Tutored and Newbay Prop, and Ballistraw looks another to fit the bill after his narrow victory over 2m4f on Sunday. His neck defeat of Vedelle with Julius a further 10ls back in third looks rock-solid form, as the trio were towards the fore in the betting and they pulled well clear of the remainder. Mick Hickey’s 7yo will be difficult for the handicapper to get hold off as he only just does enough in front (his 3 career wins have all been by less than a length) and he looks up to taking a big pot before the season’s out. The Paddy Power Chase, for which he was promoted to favouritism in some books after this, is a likely target but perhaps the Thyestes Chase, an event his trainer won twice recently with Bob Treacy, could be the one. He got just 6lbs for this success and remains well-handicapped off 129 and he will enjoy going back up to 3 miles.
Toofarback and Alexander Taipan fought out a thrilling finish to the 2m4f Beginners’ Chase at Punchestown but third Clew Bay Cove looks the one to take from the race. He made an inauspicious start to his chasing career, beaten a combined 52ls on his first 2 runs over fences, but that was of little concern as he often needs a run or two to put him straight. He was in the process of running a big race at Navan on his penultimate start but for unseating his rider 4 out, and this run confirmed that promise. A classy sort who finished fifth to Missed That in the 2005 Champion Bumper, he jumped well here and appeals as a type to land a beginners’ chase soon. Beyond that he should be competitive in the better handicap chases as he has had 4 chase runs, making him eligible for a handicap mark. A return to 2 miles or 18f may suit best as he can run free.
9yo Whatatouch hadn’t been seen since beaten out of sight in the 2003 Paddy Power Chase but his run in the Proudstown Handicap Hurdle over 2m7f at Navan offered plenty of encouragement. Up with the pace early, he lost his place 5 out before staying on late to finish 7th of 13, suggesting he retains some of his ability of old. He will be of interest when going back to chasing for he remains relatively unexposed having had just 6 runs over fences. At his best he was rated 114 over fences, and has won off 108 but his mark over the larger obstacles is now just 101 which is should be low enough for him to win off. Formerly with Noel Meade, he has now gone to unknown handler Richard Walker and perhaps the move to a smaller yard where he can get more individual attention will work the treat. 3 miles should suit him best and he acts well at Navan – he has won on ground ranging from heavy to good, but a softer surface might be best coming back from his injury.
JP McManus has horses with a number of trainers throughout the land and relatively new addition to his team, Martin Brassil, looks to have a winner in waiting in the 7yo Final Orders. He ran Shanghide to a fast-diminishing head in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Punchestown, showing a likeable attitude under the Tony McCoy drive. Winner of his sole point-to-point in April 2004 (where he beat the 116-rated chaser Bravery by 12ls), he was a decent bumper horse back then and it’s interesting that he’s been persisted with having been off course for nearly 2 years. In a stable tour of his Curragh base in August, his talented trainer put him up as one to follow and Brassil has certainly shown his ability to get one back to their best after a break with Nickname. Relatively weak in the betting on Sunday, he is probably only coming back to himself and he will take some stopping in a maiden next time. A step up to 3 miles would not be problem, as he was briefly outpaced turning in and he will make a good chaser in time.
A number of well-treated ex-hunter chase horses have emerged in the handicaps recently, not least Bothar Na, Well Tutored and Newbay Prop, and Ballistraw looks another to fit the bill after his narrow victory over 2m4f on Sunday. His neck defeat of Vedelle with Julius a further 10ls back in third looks rock-solid form, as the trio were towards the fore in the betting and they pulled well clear of the remainder. Mick Hickey’s 7yo will be difficult for the handicapper to get hold off as he only just does enough in front (his 3 career wins have all been by less than a length) and he looks up to taking a big pot before the season’s out. The Paddy Power Chase, for which he was promoted to favouritism in some books after this, is a likely target but perhaps the Thyestes Chase, an event his trainer won twice recently with Bob Treacy, could be the one. He got just 6lbs for this success and remains well-handicapped off 129 and he will enjoy going back up to 3 miles.
Toofarback and Alexander Taipan fought out a thrilling finish to the 2m4f Beginners’ Chase at Punchestown but third Clew Bay Cove looks the one to take from the race. He made an inauspicious start to his chasing career, beaten a combined 52ls on his first 2 runs over fences, but that was of little concern as he often needs a run or two to put him straight. He was in the process of running a big race at Navan on his penultimate start but for unseating his rider 4 out, and this run confirmed that promise. A classy sort who finished fifth to Missed That in the 2005 Champion Bumper, he jumped well here and appeals as a type to land a beginners’ chase soon. Beyond that he should be competitive in the better handicap chases as he has had 4 chase runs, making him eligible for a handicap mark. A return to 2 miles or 18f may suit best as he can run free.
Friday, November 17, 2006
Pattern Sprint Races
Pattern races over sprint distances in Ireland tend to attract scant media attention for a few reasons, not least the fact that we don’t have a Group 1 (or even a Group 2) championship event for the speedsters and their status as supporting events to races of greater stature. However, the twelve Group 3 and Listed contests that comprise the Irish pattern sprint calendar throw up a number of interesting patterns that are useful to punters. We have focused on all such events to be run since the beginning of the 2003 season up to the recent King Of Beers Stakes won by Dandy Man, taking in the likes of the Greenlands, Ballyogan, Flying Five and Renaissance Stakes.
Trainers
The English sprint scene may be devoid of a superstar since the retirement of Oasis Dream but they possess great strength in depth in that division and have dominated our better races of late. From 93 runners, the raiders have had 17 winners while 46% of their runners have made the first three. Trainers with particularly strong records are Barry Hills (a winner and 2 runners-up from 3 attempts), Tim Easterby (2 winners and a third from 4 runners), Roger Charlton (3 winners and 2 thirds from 7 runners) and Rae Guest (3 winners and a place from 7 attempts).
Among the home brigade, John Mulhern, Harry Rogers and Michael Halford have done best. The first pair however, owe their successes to a single horse, Osterhase and the recently retired Moon Unit respectively, so the record of Curragh trainer Halford is of more interest as he has achieved with a number of different animals. From 24 runners, he has had 4 winners – all returned at 9/2 or greater – while 13 of his runners have made the first 5 home. His victories have all come with fillies so his representatives of the fairer sex merit particular respect.
From a negative standpoint, the big three of Aidan O’Brien (1 winner from 17 runners, 13 of which were returned at 7/1 or less), John Oxx (2 winners from 17 runners, 13 whom were sent of at 8/1 or less) and Dermot (1 winner from 32 runners) have struggled. Aidan O’Brien has had some top-class sprinters recently in Mozart and Stravinsky but both made their reputation in the top English contests like the July Cup and the Nunthorpe. His sole sprint race winner at home in the past 3 years was One Cool Cat who won the Phoenix Stakes impressively after a few disappointing efforts and the fact that he had his remaining starts abroad suggests the top Ballydoyle sprinters are rarely seen in Ireland.
Age
Age is little barrier to success in sprints if past records are anything to go by with all the age groups between 3 and 9 registering a win in the time period covered. 4yos have the best record with 14 winners and 17 places from 86 runners. It has often been said that the classic generation struggle against their elders in speed tests but they tend to have more success from the mid-summer onwards. Their place strikerate prior to the Belgrave Stakes, the midpoint of the sprint calendar, is 25% while it rises to 31% thereafter.
Fillies
The fairer sex have two events confined to themselves in the Ballyogan and Sweet Mimosa Stakes but they more than hold their own against the colts and geldings. In open company, fillies and mares have managed 12 wins and 17 places from 132 runners. Their record over the minimum trip of 5f, a pure test of speed, is particularly strong.
Betting
These races are largely predictable with 27 of the 41 winners being priced at 5/1 or shorter. Of the 5 double-figure priced winners, 3 have come in the Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend so be wary of taking a short price in that event. Odds-on backers should also thread carefully as all 6 ‘money-on’ jollies have been turned over.
Jockeys
For those who wish to follow a jockey in sprint events, there has been but one name to look out for on the racecard, J Murtagh. From 19 rides, he has had 7 winners for 5 different trainers and a €10 win bet on each of his mounts would have returned a massive profit of €313. The Waterford Testimonial Stakes, run at the Curragh in October, has been particularly kind to the Meath man as he was won each of the last 3 renewals.
Future Angles
With no actual race for analysis this week, we will try to pinpoint a few horses that should be worth following in the months to come.
Dandy Man was became just the fifth 3yo in the last 3 years to win a pattern sprint before the mid-summer when hacking up in the King of Beers Stakes over 5f at the Curragh. The other early winning 3yos were useful sorts like Moon Unit, Miss Emma and Deportivo but the Con Collins-trained colt looks like a potential superstar. The form of his last win, beating useful yardsticks Benbaun and Osterhase (both of whom should continue to pay their way) looks rock-solid and he should be hard to beat in his next target, the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York.
The next big Irish sprint race in the Group 3 Patrick P O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Stakes on August 13th. English trainer to follow Tim Easterby has a pair of interesting entries in Fayr Jag and Somnus. Both are former Group 1 winners that won their most recent start and neither has a penalty for their previous success at the top level. Fayr Jag likes it fast on top while Somnus is best with a dig in the ground.
Perhaps the most interesting horse to follow is Michael Halford’s Leitra. Her trainer has a brilliant record with fillies and she ran a huge race to chase home Osterhase in the Rockingham last time. She actually looked as it she’d taken that rival’s measure but as a 3yo filly having just her sixth start she lacked the maturity of her battle-hardened rival. Her handler voiced concerns about her taking on older rivals in a recent stable tour but she looks well-equipped to take that rise in class in her stride. A quick surface suits best and she should be breaking her pattern duck before the year’s end. The likely presence of top jockey Johnny Murtagh on top is a further bonus. (27/7/2006)
Trainers
The English sprint scene may be devoid of a superstar since the retirement of Oasis Dream but they possess great strength in depth in that division and have dominated our better races of late. From 93 runners, the raiders have had 17 winners while 46% of their runners have made the first three. Trainers with particularly strong records are Barry Hills (a winner and 2 runners-up from 3 attempts), Tim Easterby (2 winners and a third from 4 runners), Roger Charlton (3 winners and 2 thirds from 7 runners) and Rae Guest (3 winners and a place from 7 attempts).
Among the home brigade, John Mulhern, Harry Rogers and Michael Halford have done best. The first pair however, owe their successes to a single horse, Osterhase and the recently retired Moon Unit respectively, so the record of Curragh trainer Halford is of more interest as he has achieved with a number of different animals. From 24 runners, he has had 4 winners – all returned at 9/2 or greater – while 13 of his runners have made the first 5 home. His victories have all come with fillies so his representatives of the fairer sex merit particular respect.
From a negative standpoint, the big three of Aidan O’Brien (1 winner from 17 runners, 13 of which were returned at 7/1 or less), John Oxx (2 winners from 17 runners, 13 whom were sent of at 8/1 or less) and Dermot (1 winner from 32 runners) have struggled. Aidan O’Brien has had some top-class sprinters recently in Mozart and Stravinsky but both made their reputation in the top English contests like the July Cup and the Nunthorpe. His sole sprint race winner at home in the past 3 years was One Cool Cat who won the Phoenix Stakes impressively after a few disappointing efforts and the fact that he had his remaining starts abroad suggests the top Ballydoyle sprinters are rarely seen in Ireland.
Age
Age is little barrier to success in sprints if past records are anything to go by with all the age groups between 3 and 9 registering a win in the time period covered. 4yos have the best record with 14 winners and 17 places from 86 runners. It has often been said that the classic generation struggle against their elders in speed tests but they tend to have more success from the mid-summer onwards. Their place strikerate prior to the Belgrave Stakes, the midpoint of the sprint calendar, is 25% while it rises to 31% thereafter.
Fillies
The fairer sex have two events confined to themselves in the Ballyogan and Sweet Mimosa Stakes but they more than hold their own against the colts and geldings. In open company, fillies and mares have managed 12 wins and 17 places from 132 runners. Their record over the minimum trip of 5f, a pure test of speed, is particularly strong.
Betting
These races are largely predictable with 27 of the 41 winners being priced at 5/1 or shorter. Of the 5 double-figure priced winners, 3 have come in the Greenlands Stakes on Guineas weekend so be wary of taking a short price in that event. Odds-on backers should also thread carefully as all 6 ‘money-on’ jollies have been turned over.
Jockeys
For those who wish to follow a jockey in sprint events, there has been but one name to look out for on the racecard, J Murtagh. From 19 rides, he has had 7 winners for 5 different trainers and a €10 win bet on each of his mounts would have returned a massive profit of €313. The Waterford Testimonial Stakes, run at the Curragh in October, has been particularly kind to the Meath man as he was won each of the last 3 renewals.
Future Angles
With no actual race for analysis this week, we will try to pinpoint a few horses that should be worth following in the months to come.
Dandy Man was became just the fifth 3yo in the last 3 years to win a pattern sprint before the mid-summer when hacking up in the King of Beers Stakes over 5f at the Curragh. The other early winning 3yos were useful sorts like Moon Unit, Miss Emma and Deportivo but the Con Collins-trained colt looks like a potential superstar. The form of his last win, beating useful yardsticks Benbaun and Osterhase (both of whom should continue to pay their way) looks rock-solid and he should be hard to beat in his next target, the Group 1 Nunthorpe at York.
The next big Irish sprint race in the Group 3 Patrick P O’Leary Memorial Phoenix Stakes on August 13th. English trainer to follow Tim Easterby has a pair of interesting entries in Fayr Jag and Somnus. Both are former Group 1 winners that won their most recent start and neither has a penalty for their previous success at the top level. Fayr Jag likes it fast on top while Somnus is best with a dig in the ground.
Perhaps the most interesting horse to follow is Michael Halford’s Leitra. Her trainer has a brilliant record with fillies and she ran a huge race to chase home Osterhase in the Rockingham last time. She actually looked as it she’d taken that rival’s measure but as a 3yo filly having just her sixth start she lacked the maturity of her battle-hardened rival. Her handler voiced concerns about her taking on older rivals in a recent stable tour but she looks well-equipped to take that rise in class in her stride. A quick surface suits best and she should be breaking her pattern duck before the year’s end. The likely presence of top jockey Johnny Murtagh on top is a further bonus. (27/7/2006)
Martin Brassil
Finding lower profile trainers who do well with small strings can prove a profitable punting strategy, especially when we analyse the profiles of the horses they tend to win with. Martin Brassil is one such handler, and there are few shrewder in the placing of their horses to best effect.
The most notable factor in Brassil’s winners in the period covered (from the beginning of the 2001 NH season to 24th August this year) is their market position. Almost all of his winners were towards the head of the betting, with just one returned at a bigger SP than 9/1. Horses occupy prominent positions in the market for two reasons – either they are clear form choices or they have come in for support from the betting public. In the case of Brassil, his winners can fit either (or indeed both!) of these profiles. Be wary of the horses in their first handicap though as only Numbersixvalverde, who already had some decent form in novice chases, won his first start in such company.
Brassil has sent out the favourite 30 times in the last 5 years, winning 12 times – an impressive strikerate of 40%. In the same period, he has had 79 runners returned at an SP of 9/1 or less – 23 of these have won, resulting in a strikerate of 29%. His record with horses returned 4/1 or shorter is even better, with 18 of 48 such runners winning (38% strikerate). What is more interesting about this later group however is their win to place ratio – they rarely reach the frame without winning. If we discount stable start Numbersixvalverde, who as a younger horse had a frustrating tendency to place without winning, 16 of the yard’s horses returned at 5/1 or less won to just 5 placing, a ratio of over 3:1. The trainer seems capable of having his horse ready for the race and knows that, barring accidents, if they are thereabouts in the finish they will win more than they lose.
Small yard’s rarely engage the services of a top jockey lest their contender holds a leading chance and the presence of one R Walsh is often a positive on the stable’s horses – the champion has ridden 13 winners from 34 rides for Brassil in the past 5 years, resulting in a level stakes profit of almost €12. Slippers Madden has a decent record here too with 4 winners from 15 mounts with a level stakes profit of €20.
There are a number of horses in the yard at present that should be worth following over the 2006/07 NH season. Having already resurrected the career of one former high-class French hurdler in Nickname, Brassil has a similar case on his hands with Ambobo. A hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle in January 2005, the Sean Mulryan-owned gelding held a prominent position in the antepost betting for the RSA Hurdle for that season before succumbing to injury. He showed enough on his return last term to suggest he retained at least some of his previous ability and a novice chasing campaign beckons. The 6yo is not over-big, but he has plenty of back-class.
Fanling Lady landed a big of a touch under Mark Walsh in a Naas maiden hurdle last February and while disappointing since she should be able to win off her mark of 99. Significantly, she has already had her first run in a handicap. There is little to recommend the 75-rated Lower The Blade on form but his trainer regards a trip between 2 and 2 ½ miles on good ground or slightly softer as his optimum, conditions he has yet to have in 7 racecourse appearances. Glitter And Glory has dropped significantly in the ratings from a career high mark of 98 to 81. The 7yo ran a decent race behind Third Level Tom at Sligo recently having been off track for 7 months and could win a handicap on fast ground.
Both Mister Farmer and Clearwaterdreamer [WON 7/1 - Punchestown, 19/10/06] , have run well in defeat in maiden hurdles of late and should gain compensation soon. Silent Wind has had just one start for the yard when fifth in a decent Punchestown maiden hurdle behind Line Ball but has pattern form on the flat in his native Germany and is an interesting recruit while former winning pointer Final Orders showed signs having been off the track for a long time in a Tipperary bumper last April. He should prove best over fences. (30/8/2006)
The most notable factor in Brassil’s winners in the period covered (from the beginning of the 2001 NH season to 24th August this year) is their market position. Almost all of his winners were towards the head of the betting, with just one returned at a bigger SP than 9/1. Horses occupy prominent positions in the market for two reasons – either they are clear form choices or they have come in for support from the betting public. In the case of Brassil, his winners can fit either (or indeed both!) of these profiles. Be wary of the horses in their first handicap though as only Numbersixvalverde, who already had some decent form in novice chases, won his first start in such company.
Brassil has sent out the favourite 30 times in the last 5 years, winning 12 times – an impressive strikerate of 40%. In the same period, he has had 79 runners returned at an SP of 9/1 or less – 23 of these have won, resulting in a strikerate of 29%. His record with horses returned 4/1 or shorter is even better, with 18 of 48 such runners winning (38% strikerate). What is more interesting about this later group however is their win to place ratio – they rarely reach the frame without winning. If we discount stable start Numbersixvalverde, who as a younger horse had a frustrating tendency to place without winning, 16 of the yard’s horses returned at 5/1 or less won to just 5 placing, a ratio of over 3:1. The trainer seems capable of having his horse ready for the race and knows that, barring accidents, if they are thereabouts in the finish they will win more than they lose.
Small yard’s rarely engage the services of a top jockey lest their contender holds a leading chance and the presence of one R Walsh is often a positive on the stable’s horses – the champion has ridden 13 winners from 34 rides for Brassil in the past 5 years, resulting in a level stakes profit of almost €12. Slippers Madden has a decent record here too with 4 winners from 15 mounts with a level stakes profit of €20.
There are a number of horses in the yard at present that should be worth following over the 2006/07 NH season. Having already resurrected the career of one former high-class French hurdler in Nickname, Brassil has a similar case on his hands with Ambobo. A hugely impressive winner of a novice hurdle in January 2005, the Sean Mulryan-owned gelding held a prominent position in the antepost betting for the RSA Hurdle for that season before succumbing to injury. He showed enough on his return last term to suggest he retained at least some of his previous ability and a novice chasing campaign beckons. The 6yo is not over-big, but he has plenty of back-class.
Fanling Lady landed a big of a touch under Mark Walsh in a Naas maiden hurdle last February and while disappointing since she should be able to win off her mark of 99. Significantly, she has already had her first run in a handicap. There is little to recommend the 75-rated Lower The Blade on form but his trainer regards a trip between 2 and 2 ½ miles on good ground or slightly softer as his optimum, conditions he has yet to have in 7 racecourse appearances. Glitter And Glory has dropped significantly in the ratings from a career high mark of 98 to 81. The 7yo ran a decent race behind Third Level Tom at Sligo recently having been off track for 7 months and could win a handicap on fast ground.
Both Mister Farmer and Clearwaterdreamer [WON 7/1 - Punchestown, 19/10/06] , have run well in defeat in maiden hurdles of late and should gain compensation soon. Silent Wind has had just one start for the yard when fifth in a decent Punchestown maiden hurdle behind Line Ball but has pattern form on the flat in his native Germany and is an interesting recruit while former winning pointer Final Orders showed signs having been off the track for a long time in a Tipperary bumper last April. He should prove best over fences. (30/8/2006)
Irish Juvenile Pattern Races
It’s unlikely that George Orwell had Irish flat racing in mind when he famously wrote that ‘All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others’ but the quotation is certainly apt for our top juvenile events. Despite carrying similar titles, the end product of such races differs greatly with some events consistently throwing up smart three-year-olds while the best horses in others are struggling through their classic season. With this in mind, I have tried to pinpoint some horses to follow (and avoid) in 2007.
Holy Roman Emperor took a while to capture the public’s imagination last term following his abortive trip to Royal Ascot, but his blinding turn-of-foot was very much in evidence when landing both the Railway and Phoenix Stakes. The first race has been a starting point for a number of high-class Ballydoyle inmates of late, including George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings. Significantly however, only the first-named – a horse of such ability that Aidan O’Brien has spoken of him as the best he has trained – won both events. The Phoenix Stakes is very much a test of early 2yo speed, rather than a guide to the following year’s classics, and just 1 of the last 10 winners managed a Gr.1 win at three. Many paddock judges have reported Holy Roman Emperor as a real 2yo type, a bull of a horse with little scope for further progress, and it looked as if he would follow the path of many of his predecessors when chinned by Teofilo next time. However, the son of Danehill was again to prove the doubters wrong when landing Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp (a race that has a history of producing classic winners) and with Kieren Fallon keen to take on his National Stakes conqueror again the stage is set for an epic rematch.
If Holy Roman Emperor is a flawed genius, then his rival Teofilo is perfection, unbeaten as he is in 4 starts. A true product of the Jim Bolger operation, being bred, owned, trained and ridden by different family members, the son of second-season phenomenon Galileo came to prominence when landing the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. Traditionally, the event produces winners that improve as their 3yo careers go on, such as Giant’s Causeway and Oratorio, which bodes well for Teofilo’s future but it was his success in the National Stakes that really took the eye. The 7f Championship event has produced the Newmarket Guineas favourite in 4 of the last 5 years, with a massive 13 Gr.1-winning 3yos emerging from its midst in the past decade. Quite simply, Teofilo is winning all the right races to suggest he will be a brilliant 3yo, perhaps even a superstar.
Of the other colt’s races, the form of the Beresford Stakes should be monitored, particularly if the runners are upped in trip. This Gr.2 over a mile often produces a horse that does well over at least mile and a half in time with the likes of Alamshar, Brian Boru and Vinnie Roe running well of late. The Killavullan Stakes, run on the final day of flat season at Leopardstown, may slip under the radar of some but it has a history of producing solid pattern performers. Of the horses to finish first and second in the race in the past 10 years, half won a pattern event the following season.
The fillies scene has been dominated by Miss Beatrix, who from humble beginnings (she managed just 1 win in her first 6 starts) came to land both the Moyglare Stakes and the newly inaugurated Goffs Million. This daughter of Danehill Dancer owes her connections nothing and that could be just as well given the Moyglare’s poor record of producing classic fillies. Just twice since 1995 has the 7f Gr.1 produced a classic winner at home and with 3ls covering the first 8 home this could well be the case this time around. That said the race has thrown up a number of top level successes later in the season with the likes of Dress To Thrill and it could be worth persevering with the form.
Those looking for a fillies race to follow could do far worse than look at the CL Weld Park Stakes. Despite holding just Gr.3 status, the 7f contest has an amazing record of producing classic winners the following year. 7 classic victors have emerged from the race since 1997, and that is not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. Arch Swing ran out a particularly taking winner of this year’s renewal, beating a number of decent rivals by upwards of four and a half lengths. Owned by lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose flat horses have won a pattern race, she fits a strong profile of other classy animals from her yard as a first time juvenile winner. Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same for John Oxx before going on to better things, and this one looks worthy of support wherever she runs next term. The omens are certainly good. (7/10/2006)
Holy Roman Emperor took a while to capture the public’s imagination last term following his abortive trip to Royal Ascot, but his blinding turn-of-foot was very much in evidence when landing both the Railway and Phoenix Stakes. The first race has been a starting point for a number of high-class Ballydoyle inmates of late, including George Washington, Rock Of Gibraltar and King Of Kings. Significantly however, only the first-named – a horse of such ability that Aidan O’Brien has spoken of him as the best he has trained – won both events. The Phoenix Stakes is very much a test of early 2yo speed, rather than a guide to the following year’s classics, and just 1 of the last 10 winners managed a Gr.1 win at three. Many paddock judges have reported Holy Roman Emperor as a real 2yo type, a bull of a horse with little scope for further progress, and it looked as if he would follow the path of many of his predecessors when chinned by Teofilo next time. However, the son of Danehill was again to prove the doubters wrong when landing Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere at Longchamp (a race that has a history of producing classic winners) and with Kieren Fallon keen to take on his National Stakes conqueror again the stage is set for an epic rematch.
If Holy Roman Emperor is a flawed genius, then his rival Teofilo is perfection, unbeaten as he is in 4 starts. A true product of the Jim Bolger operation, being bred, owned, trained and ridden by different family members, the son of second-season phenomenon Galileo came to prominence when landing the Futurity Stakes at the Curragh. Traditionally, the event produces winners that improve as their 3yo careers go on, such as Giant’s Causeway and Oratorio, which bodes well for Teofilo’s future but it was his success in the National Stakes that really took the eye. The 7f Championship event has produced the Newmarket Guineas favourite in 4 of the last 5 years, with a massive 13 Gr.1-winning 3yos emerging from its midst in the past decade. Quite simply, Teofilo is winning all the right races to suggest he will be a brilliant 3yo, perhaps even a superstar.
Of the other colt’s races, the form of the Beresford Stakes should be monitored, particularly if the runners are upped in trip. This Gr.2 over a mile often produces a horse that does well over at least mile and a half in time with the likes of Alamshar, Brian Boru and Vinnie Roe running well of late. The Killavullan Stakes, run on the final day of flat season at Leopardstown, may slip under the radar of some but it has a history of producing solid pattern performers. Of the horses to finish first and second in the race in the past 10 years, half won a pattern event the following season.
The fillies scene has been dominated by Miss Beatrix, who from humble beginnings (she managed just 1 win in her first 6 starts) came to land both the Moyglare Stakes and the newly inaugurated Goffs Million. This daughter of Danehill Dancer owes her connections nothing and that could be just as well given the Moyglare’s poor record of producing classic fillies. Just twice since 1995 has the 7f Gr.1 produced a classic winner at home and with 3ls covering the first 8 home this could well be the case this time around. That said the race has thrown up a number of top level successes later in the season with the likes of Dress To Thrill and it could be worth persevering with the form.
Those looking for a fillies race to follow could do far worse than look at the CL Weld Park Stakes. Despite holding just Gr.3 status, the 7f contest has an amazing record of producing classic winners the following year. 7 classic victors have emerged from the race since 1997, and that is not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. Arch Swing ran out a particularly taking winner of this year’s renewal, beating a number of decent rivals by upwards of four and a half lengths. Owned by lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose flat horses have won a pattern race, she fits a strong profile of other classy animals from her yard as a first time juvenile winner. Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same for John Oxx before going on to better things, and this one looks worthy of support wherever she runs next term. The omens are certainly good. (7/10/2006)
Modeeroch - 7f Specialist
Modeeroch is no world beater but granted her ideal conditions she is hard to stop. Her record over 7f reads:123151.
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