The Race That Never Happened...

This year’s renewal of the Christmas Greetings Handicap Chase, due to be run over 3 miles at Navan on December 9th, was cancelled due to the chase course being waterlogged. The 5-day entry for the race seemed unusually hot and it is worth having a look through the horses that were engaged as a number appeared well-treated sorts.

The race has been good guide to some of the better handicaps later in the season of late – last year’s second One Four Shannon went on to win the big staying chase at the Punchestown Festival while the fourth home GVA Ireland won the Midlands National. The 2004 renewal was even hotter, with dual National winner Numbersixvalverde coming home in front.

The full list of entries is as follows, and those in bold look particularly interesting in coming weeks: Point Barrow, Livingstonebramble, Star Clipper, Prince Of Tara, Homer Wells, Black Apalachi, Dublin Hunter, Some Legend, Luteur Collonges, Camptect, Sherkin Island, Brave Eagle, Over Siberia, Whatatouch, Julius, Farmer Grant [WON 5/1 - Naas, 11/3/07], Cavallo Classico, Giolla De, Forest Leaves, Derawar [WON 14/1 - Naas, 11/2/07] .

Firstly, a mention to a few ‘obvious’ horses who I don’t feel are particularly well weighted. Camptect is yet to win a chase in 5 attempts, but he has run a pair of terrific races in defeat in the Cork National and the Porterstown Chase, going down by less than a length in both cases. However, the penalty for these two narrow losses has seen his rise to 111, and a pair of very hard races may take their toll on a horse who his trainer has described as fragile. The fact that this 10yo has only had 17 career starts seems to confirm this. Giolla De [beaten 13/8f - Punchestown, 31/12/06, beaten 11/4f - Navan, 27/1/07] justified heavy market support to land an awful Clonmel race over 2m4f off 85 in November but has since been beaten off a 10lb higher mark at the same track 3 weeks later. He still has 18lbs in hand on his best hurdles mark but he seems flattered by that rating and could struggle in future.

Now, to those who may be capable to win off their current marks:

Prince Of Tara – The 2005 Troytown winner lost his way somewhat after his big win but his last run, when 5th in the Porterstown Chase under 11-7, seemed to suggest he is on his way back. Having had just 7 starts over fences, he is still unexposed, and he is a horse with plenty of class. Look out for him at Navan, a course where he has only once finished out of the first 4 in 7 course starts.

Brave Eagle – The reasons for believing Brave Eagle is well-handicapped are manifold. At his best, he aspired to a rating of 125 over sticks and had won 0ff 117 yet he now finds himself rated 105 over fences. His form over the bigger obstacles also suggests he’s a winner waiting to happen – he caught something of a tartar in Dun Doire last New Year’s Day, going down by just 2ls to the subsequent Thyestes and William Hill Chase winner. His last run in the Porterstown Chase was full of promise – a faller badly impeded him 7 out, and his rider seemed accept the situation but the horse had other ideas picking up into the straight before fading into sixth, beaten 12ls. The only concern is that he’s rising 12, but with just 22 career starts he has relatively few miles on the clock and should be capable of landing a staying event on his favoured soft ground.

Over Siberia – To all intents and purposes, Over Siberia looks a moderate animal but this former hunter chaser might just be able to win off 103. The form of his 4th to Whyso Mayo in a Gowran Hunters event last in April 2005 (just 4ls behind Well Tutored) suggest he has ability and he has been given some ‘strange’ rides on a few occasions, held up well off the pace before staying on to good effect at the death. This appears to suggest that he stays further than 3 miles, but his first attempt at a marathon trip at Fairyhouse was inconclusive.

Whatatouch – See weekend racing review of December 9th/10th.

Julius – Arthur Moore’s French-bred scooted home in a weak Limerick event last March and produced a reappearance full of promise at Punchestown last weekend. Jumping boldly in front, he held sway until turning in and held on well to hold 3rd place. The form of the race looks solid with fancied rivals Ballistraw and Vedelle coming home in front and this unexposed 9yo (just 9 career runs) should be winning again off 104.

Farmer Grant – Tony Martin landed a good touch with ex-hunter chaser Newbay Prop recently and Farmer Grant fits a similar bill. Both of the 7yo’s wins have come over 2 miles, but he was looking like the winner when tipping up 2 out over 3m3f at Fontwell last December and should stay 3 miles. He should be well able to win off 98 and runs at Navan this weekend.

Cavallo Classico – Noel Meade’s 5yo was no great shakes over hurdles but he seems to have found his proper métier over fences and ran out a good winner from Dosco last time. 3 miles looked to suit him well on that occasion, while he is versatile regarding ground having won on both heavy and good going.

Forest Leaves – Well backed on his handicap chase debut last time, Forest Leaves could only manage a 32ls 7th to Walk Over on that occasion. He’s better than he showed on that occasion though and a faster surface is sure to see the 6yo gelding to better effect.

Derawar – The second Arthur Moore inmate on this list, Derawar was a decent handicap hurdler a few years back landing a listed race over 2m4f at Navan and running with credit on a number of other occasions. He went close over 3 and a half miles at Downpatrick in March before flopping at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting when his yard was really struggling. His chase rating of 89 compares very favourably to a hurdle rating of 110 at his best and he can be placed to good effect by his handler.