Leopardstown 3.25 - Romarca
Last Week: An Cathaoir Mor, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: +2.25
It seems that everyone is talking about the post-racing gallops at Leopardstown tomorrow but my own interest is on the seven races taking place beforehand, all of which have winners to be backed in them and all of which are much less competitive than the action from Prestbury Park on Tuesday week.
The 15-runner handicap hurdle is a lot less competitive than the field size suggests and Romarca looks the value at a tissue price of around 7/1. Her overall profile of 1 win from 17 starts isn't convincing but it masks the fact that she's run screamers in her 3 runs at Leopardstown - a 16/1 second to the decent Raise Your Heart on the flat in July 2007, a 50/1 fifth (promoted to fourth) behind the classy pair River Liane and Made In Taipan at this meeting last year and an excellent second at the same price to Savitha on Hennessy Day. That race has already worked out well - the fifth and sixth chased home the well-handicapped An Cathaoir Mor last weekend, pulling 21ls clear of the fourth while tenth won a decent event at Fairyhouse last Saturday - and given the zeal with which Romarca travelled that day, the return to the minimum trip has to be a positive. This will be just her third run in a handicap so she's still open to improvement, and there's every chance she'll come on for what was her first run in two and a half months last time.
In the other big handicap, the Mick Holly, Major Sensation looks a solid favourite. This has been a strong race for trends followers down the years and he looks a perfect fit, being an unexposed,Arthur Moore-trained runner (3 wins in the last 10 renewals) with course form and rated between 110 and 120. He ran a cracker when the handbrake was let off for the first time over fences last time and while his stamina over the trip is an issue, he's a half-brother to stayers Mini Sensation and Shotgun Willy.
Phoenix Run is also worth a few quid in the opening maiden. The 2m6f trip appeared to catch him out last time and he will enjoy this drop in distance and he travels much better in his races than his market rivals Qualviro and Uimhiraceathair. Mask Of Darkness could be on his 'job' but this looks much tougher than the Chepstow race he was third in last time.
Saturday, February 28, 2009
Saturday, February 21, 2009
Weekend NAP - February 22nd
Naas 3.50 - An Cathaoir Mor
Last Week: Agus A Vic, WON @ 11/4
Season to date: +0.25
Some decent graded races at Naas this Sunday, but the best bets appear to be in the 'lesser' races. An Cathaoir Mor ran a cracker over course and distance two starts ago, chasing home the classy pair Cousin Vinny and Realt Dubh, and built on the promise of that with a narrow win in a hot handicap at Gowran last time. A 6lb hike looks lenient as the runner-up Farringdon is a solid yardstick and the fourth home Savitha franked the form in no uncertain terms at Leopardstown last week. The selection has shown up consistently well on this sort of ground (excluding maiden hurdles, his form figures on yielding-soft or worse are:1331) and is over-priced at 4/1 on the tissue. The favourite Pistol Flash looks a well-handicapped horse but is hard to fancy on her most recent effort when the money was down and his biggest danger could be the four-year-old Celtic Strand, who's age group have been running well in this type of race.
The opening event is as hot a maiden hurdle as you're likely to see at this time of year and narrow preference is for Puyol over Smoking Aces. He split a pair of subsequent winners last time and may just be better suited by the minimum trip that Tom Taaffe's runner. In the staying handicap hurdle, Don't Rush It is sure to enjoy the step up to 3 miles. His best effort by far came over 2m7f at Thurles (the form of which looks solid) and he is a half-brother to the decent staying chaser Howaya Pet. His last run over an insufficient two miles is masking the fact that he's in good form and can take the measure of Tooman Lake.
Last Week: Agus A Vic, WON @ 11/4
Season to date: +0.25
Some decent graded races at Naas this Sunday, but the best bets appear to be in the 'lesser' races. An Cathaoir Mor ran a cracker over course and distance two starts ago, chasing home the classy pair Cousin Vinny and Realt Dubh, and built on the promise of that with a narrow win in a hot handicap at Gowran last time. A 6lb hike looks lenient as the runner-up Farringdon is a solid yardstick and the fourth home Savitha franked the form in no uncertain terms at Leopardstown last week. The selection has shown up consistently well on this sort of ground (excluding maiden hurdles, his form figures on yielding-soft or worse are:1331) and is over-priced at 4/1 on the tissue. The favourite Pistol Flash looks a well-handicapped horse but is hard to fancy on her most recent effort when the money was down and his biggest danger could be the four-year-old Celtic Strand, who's age group have been running well in this type of race.
The opening event is as hot a maiden hurdle as you're likely to see at this time of year and narrow preference is for Puyol over Smoking Aces. He split a pair of subsequent winners last time and may just be better suited by the minimum trip that Tom Taaffe's runner. In the staying handicap hurdle, Don't Rush It is sure to enjoy the step up to 3 miles. His best effort by far came over 2m7f at Thurles (the form of which looks solid) and he is a half-brother to the decent staying chaser Howaya Pet. His last run over an insufficient two miles is masking the fact that he's in good form and can take the measure of Tooman Lake.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Weekend Racing Review: Gowran Park, Leopardstown, Navan
Positives: Joe Crowley’s stable had been painfully out of form before Saturday’s meeting at Gowran (only 1 jumps winner since the previous April from 96 runners) but that didn’t stop Knock On The Head landing a touch from a lenient-looking chase rating of 110. A 13lb higher-mark tempers enthusiasm for him next time out but I’d be keen to keep the runner-up Mustangsallyrally on side. On the surface of things, Tom Mullins’ 8yo is bloody inconsistent but a closer look at his form says otherwise; his record over fences is an impressive:32212 while soft ground or worse (form figures:F0113031612 in handicaps) and the assistance of Emmet Mullins (4 wins and 3 places from 12 rides) are important to him. While he wouldn’t have beaten the favourite under any sort of ride, I suspect Mullins hit the front too soon on Mustangsallyrally – the 5lb claimer had been very keen to hold on to him until late when they last won at Fairyhouse. Up 4lbs for this, he will be of significant interest when granted his conditions in ordinary handicap chases. I’m finding it increasingly difficult to back horses coming off strange mid-season breaks when there have been ample opportunities for them to run; such animals have almost invariably met with some training problem or another. Clarified was one such horse in the 2m2f beginners chase at Gowran and he certainly ran like he needed the run; travelling well to look like the most likely winner to the second last only to blow up in the closing stages. He’s obviously been brought back to something like his best and will be hard to beat in a maiden event next time; I’d be especially interested if he renews rivalry with the runner-up Captain Conflict next time as he’s open to more improvement than that one who has a dubious attitude anyway. Though his connections are unlikely to ever make him a price, Solwhit [WON 6/1 - Aintree, 4/4/09] fairly took the breath away with his turn-of-foot between the last two obstacles in the Red Mills Trial Hurdle where he settled the race in a matter of strides and all this despite the testing surface. I don’t know how Charles Byrnes would have explained his lacklustre effort on similar ground at Thurles in December (where he got turned over at 1/3) in light of this performance but the stewards didn’t see fit to call him. His trainer’s decision not to enter him in this year’s Champion Hurdle is an interesting one – he apparently wants to keep him for next year’s renewal – but he certainly wouldn’t be out of place at the top table on this evidence. Cooldine [WON 9/4 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] got rid of any doubts about his ability to go left-handed in winning the Moriarty at Leopardstown and in the process marked himself down as a serious candidate for the RSA Chase. His form may not be quite at that level yet but that wouldn’t concern me at all – the Cheltenham staying event is most often won by a horse that improves for the test on the day rather a runner that has been slogging through bad ground all winter, though Denman is an obvious exception. As a multiple graded winning novice hurdler who finished fourth to Blazing Bailey at Punchestown it’s not as if he’s lacking in class, and with just 3 chase starts under his belt he’s open to any amount of improvement. His trainer’s exceptional record in the race is another string to his bow. Despite his status as a hunter chaser, Agus A Vic is one of my favourite horses in training and he confirmed his position at the top the Irish hunting scene with a career best in the Raymond Smith Memorial. The horse is a punters’ friend as he never wins by much, ensuring his price isn’t too short when he next runs. Jamie Codd got him jumping like never before and I sincerely hope he keeps the ride; the combination should be hard to beat in this sort of contest for the rest of the season. There’s not much to report from the rescheduled Navan fixture on Monday though Light Sentence might be worth watching now that he’s had the required three runs to get a handicap mark. The fact that he’s been getting further from the judge in each start may be a worrying trend but his run here came after a break and Ken Whelan (who’s total of 1 win since the turn of 2008 tells its own story) wasn’t too keen on putting him into the race at any point. The form of his Listowel run in September behind decent types Glenquest and Final Question suggests that he can win a small handicap, probably on better ground and with a bigger name jockey up.
Negatives: Following an early career where he won 6 of his first 8 starts, Clopf has been hugely disappointing, winning just once in 14 runs. His unplaced run in the Red Mills Hurdle, where he travelled strongly into the race only to find zilch off the bit and finished 16ls behind the winner in fifth, was the final straw for me and he should carry a wealth warning in future. That is run came at a time when his yard was on fire (6 winners and 5 places from 19 runners in the past fortnight) should be the final nail in his coffin. Robbie Hennessy paid 200,000gns for Donegal at the Horses-In-Training Sales but that will be money badly spent if he persists with the 111-rated flat horse over hurdles as he simply can’t jump. His trainer has said in an At The Races interview that his hurdling improved at lot from his Leopardstown debut but I find that very hard to believe and his best chance of future success will be back on the level where he would surely be a match for the second tier of Irish stayers. Not for the first time, Forpadydeplasterer travelled best of all in his race only to find little when push came to shove in the Moriarty. His overall record may be one of consistency but when you look at the horses he’s beaten in victory (the likes of Mick The Man and Cork All Star) you have to ask if he’s going to be a perennial bridesmaid. For me, he looks a weak finisher.
Pointers: The general post-race feeling from the connections of Ebadiyan was that John Cullen hadn’t gone hard enough in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle; certainly he never put any distance of ground between himself and his pursuers and the grey did stay on well in the finish. A look at race times however suggests otherwise – the 8-runner field covered the course over 7 seconds faster than a 16-strong field of experienced handicappers later in the afternoon and that race certainly didn’t appear slowly run as Mission Possible blazed a trail from the front. This suggests that the juveniles put up a serious Triumph Hurdle trial here; most of the talk has been about the strength in depth of the English challenge but it would be unwise to underestimate the Irish contingent on this evidence. The one to take from the race is obvious, the winner Jumbo Rio; his jumping has been impeccable in 2 hurdles starts barring an error at the second last here but the way he came back on the bridle suggested he has plenty of class. Though he had a run of placed efforts on the flat, there was nothing to suggest he was ungenuine (high praise coming from these cynical quarters!) and is in the hands of one of the great Cheltenham trainers in Edward O’Grady. Much of the post race analysis of the aforementioned handicap hurdle concentrated on the nightmare run endured by the eventual third Alexander Severus but his price will surely be tight enough next time after this and he’s shown more than a few signs of temperament in 3 Irish starts already. It may prove more profitable to focus on his age-group as both he and Flag Of Honour were involved in the finish, suggesting that the four-year-olds may not be at all badly treated in handicaps in the coming months. There has certainly been plenty of evidence of this being the case already, with Alexander Severus leading home a trio of juveniles in an open maiden at the last Leopardstown meeting being just one example.
Negatives: Following an early career where he won 6 of his first 8 starts, Clopf has been hugely disappointing, winning just once in 14 runs. His unplaced run in the Red Mills Hurdle, where he travelled strongly into the race only to find zilch off the bit and finished 16ls behind the winner in fifth, was the final straw for me and he should carry a wealth warning in future. That is run came at a time when his yard was on fire (6 winners and 5 places from 19 runners in the past fortnight) should be the final nail in his coffin. Robbie Hennessy paid 200,000gns for Donegal at the Horses-In-Training Sales but that will be money badly spent if he persists with the 111-rated flat horse over hurdles as he simply can’t jump. His trainer has said in an At The Races interview that his hurdling improved at lot from his Leopardstown debut but I find that very hard to believe and his best chance of future success will be back on the level where he would surely be a match for the second tier of Irish stayers. Not for the first time, Forpadydeplasterer travelled best of all in his race only to find little when push came to shove in the Moriarty. His overall record may be one of consistency but when you look at the horses he’s beaten in victory (the likes of Mick The Man and Cork All Star) you have to ask if he’s going to be a perennial bridesmaid. For me, he looks a weak finisher.
Pointers: The general post-race feeling from the connections of Ebadiyan was that John Cullen hadn’t gone hard enough in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle; certainly he never put any distance of ground between himself and his pursuers and the grey did stay on well in the finish. A look at race times however suggests otherwise – the 8-runner field covered the course over 7 seconds faster than a 16-strong field of experienced handicappers later in the afternoon and that race certainly didn’t appear slowly run as Mission Possible blazed a trail from the front. This suggests that the juveniles put up a serious Triumph Hurdle trial here; most of the talk has been about the strength in depth of the English challenge but it would be unwise to underestimate the Irish contingent on this evidence. The one to take from the race is obvious, the winner Jumbo Rio; his jumping has been impeccable in 2 hurdles starts barring an error at the second last here but the way he came back on the bridle suggested he has plenty of class. Though he had a run of placed efforts on the flat, there was nothing to suggest he was ungenuine (high praise coming from these cynical quarters!) and is in the hands of one of the great Cheltenham trainers in Edward O’Grady. Much of the post race analysis of the aforementioned handicap hurdle concentrated on the nightmare run endured by the eventual third Alexander Severus but his price will surely be tight enough next time after this and he’s shown more than a few signs of temperament in 3 Irish starts already. It may prove more profitable to focus on his age-group as both he and Flag Of Honour were involved in the finish, suggesting that the four-year-olds may not be at all badly treated in handicaps in the coming months. There has certainly been plenty of evidence of this being the case already, with Alexander Severus leading home a trio of juveniles in an open maiden at the last Leopardstown meeting being just one example.
Saturday, February 14, 2009
Weekend NAP - February 15th
Leopardstown 4.25 - Agus A Vic
Agus A Vic has been just about the best hunter chaser in Ireland in the last two year - his form figures in Irish hunter chases read an impressive:212111B - and he remains open to plenty of improvement. Not without a quirk or two, he rarely wins by much but this certainly helps his price and a tissue price of 100/30 significantly underrates his chance tomorrow. He put up a career best in this race last term and with the ground to suit, a similar performance can be expected.
The appearance of Carronhills in the declarations is something of a boon; he may be a rising star of the Irish hunter scene but the form of his win last time, beating a twicer and a pensioner, is dubious and the presence of Nina Carberry on top will see him sent off at restrictive odds.
Agus A Vic has been just about the best hunter chaser in Ireland in the last two year - his form figures in Irish hunter chases read an impressive:212111B - and he remains open to plenty of improvement. Not without a quirk or two, he rarely wins by much but this certainly helps his price and a tissue price of 100/30 significantly underrates his chance tomorrow. He put up a career best in this race last term and with the ground to suit, a similar performance can be expected.
The appearance of Carronhills in the declarations is something of a boon; he may be a rising star of the Irish hunter scene but the form of his win last time, beating a twicer and a pensioner, is dubious and the presence of Nina Carberry on top will see him sent off at restrictive odds.
Monday, February 2, 2009
Deloitte Novice Hurdle - Leopardstown 8th: The Key Trends
- Six-year-olds have dominated this race with 7 of the last 10 winners as well as 9 of the 13 placed horses.
- This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.
- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks.
- The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.
- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one.
- Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs.
- Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.
- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.
- This is one of the best races in the calendar for backing the favourite; the market leader has won 8 of the last 10 renewals.
- Just 1 of the past 10 winners (Forpadydeplasterer in 2008) failed to win their most recent start.
- Solerina was an atypical winner of this in 2003 as she was having her ninth run of the season; on the whole relative freshness has been important and no other recent winner had run in the previous 4 weeks.
- The Future Champions Novice Hurdle has been the best trial supplying 5 of the last 9 winners. The winners finished:21111 and this year’s renewal was won by Hurricane Fly.
- Graded form figures prominently among the recent winners’ profiles; all but 1 of the last 10 winners had already run in a graded novice while 7 had won one.
- Proven stamina is crucial with 9 of the last 10 winners having won over at least 19 furlongs.
- Respect course form as 6 of the past 9 winners had already won at Leopardstown.
- There are few more consistently fruitful sources of future winners and stars than this race and it has thrown up the likes of Sackville, Native Upmanship, Hardy Eustace, Solerina and Brave Inca recently. A bet on each of the first three home on their next three outings would return 32 winners from 87 bets (37% strike-rate) for a level-stakes profit of over €14.
Sunday, February 1, 2009
The Hennessy, Leopardstown February 8th 2009 - The Key Trends
- Official ratings have been a fabulous guide here. 9 of the last 11 winners here were rated at least 160 with one of the exceptions, Beef Or Salmon in 2003, yet to have been given a handicap mark; he had however won the Lexus on his most recent start achieving a Racing Post Rating of 163+.
- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.
- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.
- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.
- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form.
- All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase.
- Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.
- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.
- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.
- The last 10 winners have been aged between 7 and 12 which is hardly much of a help. 9yos have won been the most productive age-group though with 5 wins in 11 eleven years.
- Respect the market. 10 of the past 11 winners have been sent off favourite or second-favourite. Neptune Collonges and Exotic Dancer are almost sure to head the betting in 2009.
- Don’t look beyond the obvious contenders on recent form; 8 winners in past decade made the three last time while the 2 exceptions fell.
- The Lexus has been the key trial. 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the December 28th race over the same course-and-distance finishing:321F13. The impressive 20l winner Exotic Dancer and the faller Neptune Collonges will be the best representatives of the form.
- All of the last 11 winners were previous Grade 1 winners and all bar Beef Or Salmon in 2003 had won at least two Grade 1s. In a similar vein, every winner since 1998 had won a Grade 1 chase.
- Proven stamina is a must; only 2002 winner Alexander Banquet had yet to win over at least three miles in the past 11 years.
- Every winner since 1998 had already won at Leopardstown while 7 could be justifiably described as course specialists having won at least thrice at the track. Neptune Collonges, who fell on his sole course run, fails this criterion.
- Willie Mullins (6 wins and 3 places) and Michael Hourigan (3 wins and 2 places) have absolutely carved this race up in the last decade with only two other Irish trainers managing even a placed runner in that timeframe. However, the tide has almost certainly swung towards the English trainers for now; they had a one-two last season and raiders have won all three of our Grade 1 chases over 2m4f and further in 2008/9 with Kauto Star in the Nicholson, Noland in the John Durkan and Exotic Dancer in the Lexus.
Weekend NAP - February 1st
Punchestown 3.35 - Never Compromise
Some very trappy stuff at Punchestown today but I'm going to take a chance on the veteran Never Compromise mainly because L'Ami looks a weak favourite. L'Ami has plenty of placed form that says he's a good thing but that's just the point, it's placed form, and he's won only 3 of his 44 rules starts. He's won just once since January 2005 and that in a point-to-point against another twicer and looks well worth opposing at a short price.
Never Compromise has an excellent record over the Punchestown cross-country course (form figures:241313U) and showed that he retains a nice bit of ability when sixth in a competitive handicap chase over an insufficient trip last time. It will be disappointing if he can't hit the frame at least.
In the other races, Beckett Rock may be overpriced in the opener. He ran in a much better Leopardstown maiden than the favourite Sorceror and would have finished closer to Voler La Vedette if ridden more positively.
Big Zeb has a few holes in him and Scotsirish is worth a bet in the race formerly known as the Tied Cottage. You'd prefer to see a front-runner in the field to make a pace but the testing ground should help put the emphasis on stamina.
Some very trappy stuff at Punchestown today but I'm going to take a chance on the veteran Never Compromise mainly because L'Ami looks a weak favourite. L'Ami has plenty of placed form that says he's a good thing but that's just the point, it's placed form, and he's won only 3 of his 44 rules starts. He's won just once since January 2005 and that in a point-to-point against another twicer and looks well worth opposing at a short price.
Never Compromise has an excellent record over the Punchestown cross-country course (form figures:241313U) and showed that he retains a nice bit of ability when sixth in a competitive handicap chase over an insufficient trip last time. It will be disappointing if he can't hit the frame at least.
In the other races, Beckett Rock may be overpriced in the opener. He ran in a much better Leopardstown maiden than the favourite Sorceror and would have finished closer to Voler La Vedette if ridden more positively.
Big Zeb has a few holes in him and Scotsirish is worth a bet in the race formerly known as the Tied Cottage. You'd prefer to see a front-runner in the field to make a pace but the testing ground should help put the emphasis on stamina.
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