- Noel Meade has a poor record in the race; his 8 runners have ran:45672444 with the second being a 4/6 favourite.
- Of all the age-groups, 7yos have the best record with 6 winners and 3 runners-up from a third of the total runners.
- Only 3 of the last 10 winners had already won an open Grade 1 hurdle race.
- 6 of the last 8 winners were second-season hurdlers.
- 8 winners in the past decade had already won at Punchestown while 6 had won at the Festival meeting.
- The last 10 winners were ridden no further back than tracking the leaders.
- No favourite has won since 1999.
For a more in-depth analysis of the big Punchestown races, see my Horse Racing Statistics article on Betfair’s Irish horse racing betting blog or the Stats Guides on the At The Races Punchestown website.
Monday, April 27, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Weekend NAP - April 26th
Croke Park 2.00 - Monaghan (13/8 best price)
Last Week: Kargali, WON @ 5/2
Season to date: +2.75
Last Week: Kargali, WON @ 5/2
Season to date: +2.75
Friday, April 17, 2009
Weekend NAP - April 18th/19th
Leopardstown 3.25 - Kargali
Last week: Sioduil, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: + 0.25
Last week: Sioduil, WON @ 2/1
Season to date: + 0.25
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
Ladbrokes.com Handicap Hurdle: Fairyhouse, April 14th – The Key Trends
- Subsequent three-time Grade 1 winner Macs Joy is by far the best recent winner of this race and not surprisingly busted a few trends; he lumbered 11-0 to victory in 2004 but no other winner since 1998 has carried more than 10-4 to win.
- Macs Joy is also the only winner rated higher than 120 win in the last 11 renewals. 6 of the last 11 winners were rated between 102 and 106 but with the top weight in this year’s race due to run off 151 such low weights may struggle to get into the race.
- 6yos are the dominant age group; since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners, 6 runners-up plus 4 further places.
- Arthur Moore has a sensational record in the race – he’s had 3 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 more places. His entries this year are Sole Bonne Femme, Native Clan, Meritorious and Fistoulig. Charlie Swan, with 2 wins and 1 third, is next best.
- Leopardstown handicap form works out very well here. Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here in 2001 and 2002 respectively but the 2m event run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ has been an even better guide with 5 of the last 10 winners having their most recent outing in that race, including last year’s winner Major Sensation.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners had more than 3 runs since January 1st.
- Unexposed, improving handicappers have come to the fore lately. Of the last 8 winners, none had more than 4 starts in handicap hurdles.
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners was held up during the race.
- Macs Joy is also the only winner rated higher than 120 win in the last 11 renewals. 6 of the last 11 winners were rated between 102 and 106 but with the top weight in this year’s race due to run off 151 such low weights may struggle to get into the race.
- 6yos are the dominant age group; since 1999, they’ve had 5 winners, 6 runners-up plus 4 further places.
- Arthur Moore has a sensational record in the race – he’s had 3 winners, 4 runners-up and 2 more places. His entries this year are Sole Bonne Femme, Native Clan, Meritorious and Fistoulig. Charlie Swan, with 2 wins and 1 third, is next best.
- Leopardstown handicap form works out very well here. Masalarian and Anxious Moments improved on top-five finishes in the Pierse Hurdle to win here in 2001 and 2002 respectively but the 2m event run on ‘Cheltenham Gallops Day’ has been an even better guide with 5 of the last 10 winners having their most recent outing in that race, including last year’s winner Major Sensation.
- Only 1 of the last 10 winners had more than 3 runs since January 1st.
- Unexposed, improving handicappers have come to the fore lately. Of the last 8 winners, none had more than 4 starts in handicap hurdles.
- Just 1 of the last 11 winners was held up during the race.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Meeting Review: Curragh, April 5th
Positives: Mad About You made me look a bit silly when bolting up in the Gladness and the blinkers are obviously the key to her; she was a different horse to the one that simply refused to go by inferior rivals a fortnight ago without the headgear. The race was run in a decent time (3.2 seconds faster than the 3yo listed race earlier in the card) so the form could be solid and Kargali looks one to take from the race. Having won just a maiden and conditions event last term, this was clear career-best and there should be more improvement to come up in trip as he was off the bridle early here. Given his ordinary form at three, he seems an unusual choice to be kept in training as an older horse but the hint should be taken; John Oxx rarely, if ever, keeps Aga Khan-owned horses in training beyond three if they’re not up to pattern class and this one should be making his mark in that grade soon enough. Soft ground would appear vital to him. The time of the 10f maiden compared well with the listed race over the same trip with the winner of the former taking just over a second longer to complete the course despite carrying 4lbs more than his elders. Princeton Plains made an eye-catching debut, staying on well from off the pace, and should be better for the experience. The closing 2m event had its usual field of decent jumpers prepping for races at Fairyhouse and Punchestown and An Cathaoir Mor ran very well in fourth, making up plenty of ground in the closing stages. The 6yo is a really keen-going sort and didn’t help himself by refusing to settle in the early stages, but he’s got so many gears he might be able to win on the level. It’s over hurdles that he’s off more immediate interest however and this spin should have put him spot-on for the valuable 2-mile handicap hurdle on the Tuesday of the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting. His recent hurdles form has been progressive and his mark is unlikely to reflect the full scope of his ability just yet as his fast-finishing style of racing prevents the handicapper getting to grips with him. The fifth home, Dreamy Gent, tends to need a run each season so this was encouraging and I sincerely hope he is campaigned on the flat over the summer as his mark of 73 is ripe for exploitation. The 7yo gelding was an excellent second to subsequent listed winner Jane Austen at Killarney last July, giving the winner 22lbs, form that makes his current rating look silly. His trainer has a fine record of winning handicaps with jumpers – the likes of Sandymount Earl and Fantoche spring to mind – and Dreamy Gent can certainly win middle to long-distance events on decent ground over the coming months.
Negatives: The Racing Post analysis team have pointed to Xtraxtra running green in his two starts but that looks generous as Michael Grassick’s juvenile is just ungenuine. The son of Titus Livius hung in when asked for his effort in the opening race of the season and didn’t look in love with the game in the 5f maiden here as he allowed Eireannach, who was travelling worse than him at the time, to get on top close home only to run on again in the finish. Not a good sign.
Pointers: I’m reluctant to give Stand And Fight a negative just yet for failing to land a colossal and sustained gamble in the opener (backed from 3/1 in the morning into 9/10 on course) but you’d have to be sceptical of a horse with his profile. Not only was he the only gelding in the field, he also runs in the colours of the trainer’s wife. For the most part (though the Jackie Bolger-owned runners are the obvious exception) horses only turn out in these sort of silks if no one else wants them and certainly few animals of note have carried the navy colours of Mrs. Kevin Prendergast, a state of play I don’t expect Stand And Fight to change. Richelieu is a hold-up horse that comes with only one run and he looked to hit the front plenty soon enough under Shane Foley in the 6f handicap; this was a weak race but he could have done with being held onto for longer. 6f on a decent surface (good-soft or faster or the all-weather) are his optimum conditions – his form figures under such conditions read:371221215 – and should continue to give his running when granted same even though his mark may be high enough. Jim Bolger came into the meeting with a 36% strike-rate in the last 14 days and the spectacular run of the yard continued as he registered a treble. His horses should be given plenty of scrutiny at present.
Negatives: The Racing Post analysis team have pointed to Xtraxtra running green in his two starts but that looks generous as Michael Grassick’s juvenile is just ungenuine. The son of Titus Livius hung in when asked for his effort in the opening race of the season and didn’t look in love with the game in the 5f maiden here as he allowed Eireannach, who was travelling worse than him at the time, to get on top close home only to run on again in the finish. Not a good sign.
Pointers: I’m reluctant to give Stand And Fight a negative just yet for failing to land a colossal and sustained gamble in the opener (backed from 3/1 in the morning into 9/10 on course) but you’d have to be sceptical of a horse with his profile. Not only was he the only gelding in the field, he also runs in the colours of the trainer’s wife. For the most part (though the Jackie Bolger-owned runners are the obvious exception) horses only turn out in these sort of silks if no one else wants them and certainly few animals of note have carried the navy colours of Mrs. Kevin Prendergast, a state of play I don’t expect Stand And Fight to change. Richelieu is a hold-up horse that comes with only one run and he looked to hit the front plenty soon enough under Shane Foley in the 6f handicap; this was a weak race but he could have done with being held onto for longer. 6f on a decent surface (good-soft or faster or the all-weather) are his optimum conditions – his form figures under such conditions read:371221215 – and should continue to give his running when granted same even though his mark may be high enough. Jim Bolger came into the meeting with a 36% strike-rate in the last 14 days and the spectacular run of the yard continued as he registered a treble. His horses should be given plenty of scrutiny at present.
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