Meeting Review: Leopardstown, January 25th 2008

Positives: With ground that was already described as heavy taking plenty of rain during course of racing, this meeting is unlikely to provide too many winners in the near future; even the fastest event on the card was over 14 seconds slower than Racing Post standard and most of the participants will have endured hard races here. Ross Accord however remains a well-handicapped horse on the evidence of his fast-finishing second in the 2m6f handicap hurdle and is worth another chance; he was impeded by a faller going out on the second circuit and was given plenty to do by Ruby Walsh. The Tony Martin-trained gelding marked himself down as a horse of some talent and versatility last time when dropping back to the minimum trip to win a competitive novices handicap on decent ground (the form of which is hot) and is unlikely to be hammered for this – he ran off 100 here and such a mark seriously underestimates his ability.

Negatives: Time Electric fell before the race began in earnest in the 2m maiden hurdle but he’s one I want to field against anyway; his overall profile is of a very disappointing animal whose reputation always makes him a shorter price than he should be. The 7yo was the only one the punters wanted here and he was sent off a heavily supported 6/4 favourite despite his last effort having looked fairly poor – though he finished second to Zaarito, it represented negligible improvement on his previous outings and he was readily put in his place by the 2008 Cheltenham Bumper favourite. Time Electric’s followers will have losses to recoup next time so he’s likely to a short price but he’ll be well worth opposing with any sort of creditable opponent. If horses are to be rated on the opponents they beating in their wins then Callherwhatulike must be a pretty poor horse; her 3 immediate victims in her trio of rules wins being Omas Glen, Bill’s Folly and Valley Of Giants. Such worries didn’t stop punters (myself included) sending her off an 11/4 favourite from a morning price of 8/1 in the 2m3f handicap chase but she jumped horribly throughout losing ground at nearly every fence. Barry Geraghty gave her every chance putting her up on the pace but she may have resented being asked to lead and has hinted at attitude on a few occasions in the past – she folded tamely when running in 3 miles graded races at this track last year, can carry her head awkwardly under pressure and has a worrying tendency to finish second. All in all, one to avoid. Sublimity is a serious horse on his day but you’d have to question Robbie Hennessy’s wisdom in running him in the Champion Hurdle and there’s every chance that he’s left whatever chance he had in Cheltenham behind him here. A strong pace was always likely with Colm Murphy employing a pair of rabbits to set it up for the eventual winner Brave Inca and the heavy ground was hardly ideal either while another largely overlooked factor was his lack of freshness – Sublimity is much the better with plenty of time between his races and this was his third run in 7 weeks and that’s not even to mention his abortive trip to England to run in the abandoned Fighting Fifth at Newcastle. He scoped badly post-race and it will take a training performance as good as this bit of placing was bad to reproduce him in peak-form for March. Corskeagh Royale has been really disappointing since finishing runner-up in the Champion Bumper with only a bit of Paul Carberry finesse and a poor ride from Andrew McNamara on Judge Roy Bean allowing him to get a win on board. His tendency to swish his tail under pressure was again in evidence in the 2m4f Grade 2 novice hurdle and his jumping didn’t pass muster either – he looks a hype horse to be avoided. Like a few Arthur Moore horses recently (Fistoulig, Stewarts House), Notable D’Estruval was a laughable price at 9/4 in the 2m6f handicap hurdle as he had a number of questions to answer – chiefly stamina as he looks best at 2m4f (despite his placed finishes in 3m events) but also his aptitude for hurdling as he’d flopped on his 2 previous outings over sticks off marks that his chase rating made appear very lenient. The 8yo might be off interest back over fences at the right trip but makes no appeal over hurdles whatsoever despite what the discrepancy in his ratings might say.

Pointers: One horse that could prove a ‘creditable opponent’ for the aforementioned Time Electric is Puyol as the form of the maiden he was second in at the Christmas meeting received a number of boosts over the weekend. The winner Kempes fairly gagged up at Navan yesterday, the third Roberto Goldback won the Grade 2 novice here while the eighth Chateau D’Eau did likewise in the handicap hurdle. On that form, Puyol looks sure to be breaking his duck soon; having won both a bumper and 2 mile flat race, he may be suited by at least 18f over hurdles but his proven heavy ground form means he’ll be hard to stop whatever the trip. With his form with Made In Taipan looking false, Jayo was probably plenty short enough at 15/8 in the Arkle but even so he should have finished a lot closer to his stable-mate Golden Silver. His jumping, so good on his previous starts, simply went to pieces and I suspect he may hate this track; he was an even money flop at the 2007 Christmas fixture and the Racing Post ‘Key Stat’ in their Arkle preview pointed out that he’d never run with 10lbs of his best on the RPRs in 3 runs at the course. Make that four after this. Brave Inca on the other hand is a horse that just thrives around here – his second win in the Toshiba Champion Hurdle brought his course form figures to:122111231. After failing to make the frame in his first four runs, the 11yo only once failed to make the three in 29 subsequent starts which is an amazing achievement considering he spent most of that career running in Grade 1 events. He’s a true credit to connections. In contrast to Robbie Hennessy, both Sabrina Harty and Noel Meade seem to have pretty shrewd in not running their charges Won In The Dark and Jered in the Champion Hurdle and their inaction could well prove the benefit of sitting on one’s hands before the end of the season. Both horses have been lightly raced with just 2 hurdles starts this season and while the ground on the opening day of the Cheltenham Festival may just be too slow for them, they are right at the top of my shortlist for the Grade 1 at Punchestown later on. Both won at the Festival meeting last term and it’s a meeting where previous course form is a strong positive (see Punjabi’s win last term) – their relative freshness will be another thing in their favour.

Weekend NAP - January 25th, 2009

Last Week: Qualviro, 2nd at Evens

Year to date: -0.5

Leopardstown 1.50 - Follow The Plan

Having held a level of form through 4 starts this season, Follow The Plan is probably due a bad run but his likely price in the Irish Arkle allows for this and then some; his defeat of Tatenen (who received 11lbs) over today's course and distance was probably the best performance by a novice chaser around 2 miles this season and I was interested to see that Timeform have him well clear of his fellow 2 milers on a mark of 155.
It's thus hard to see why he can be a bigger price than Jayo and Forpadydeplasterer; the former has been impressive in his manner of travelling and jumping but beat a below-par Made In Taipan last time while Tom Cooper's horse looks a little tripless and has had an interrupted preparation having missed his Christmas engagement.
Follow The Plan has everything you'd want in a prospective Arkle horse - he jumps, travels and has plenty of stamina. What he doesn't have is high-profile connections and a lofty hurdles mark but these are factors that just help his price.

Weekend NAP - January 17th, 2009

Fairyhouse 1.05 - Qualviro

Season to date: +0.5

With Fixed Fee winning easily at Cork recently, the early signs are that the race won by Voler La Vedette at Leopardstown was pretty hot and I think it may prove the pick of the maiden hurdles run at that venue over Christmas. Qualviro was a good third that day and holds both Across The Bay and Beckett Rock comfortably on that form. The step up in trip is a slight question but a look at his sire, dam's family and siblings suggest it won't be a problem and though he was off the bridle from the second last at Leopardstown, he found plenty off the bridle to pull clear of the fourth.
I can't have it that a 4yo making its hurdle debut over 2m4f on testing ground (Art Sleuth) will be winning this, whatever his connections, and while Sibenek is decent, he'd need to improve markedly on his Fairyhouse run to beat the selection. Qualviro been running against some very decent types like The Last Derby, Zarinava, Alpine Eagle and Smoking Aces lately and, with nothing of that quality in opposition here, should collect.
Of the other Fairyhouse races, I'll take Scotsirish to come home in front a trappy Norman's Grove while Bobbawn has some old hunter chase and point-to-point form that's says he's well-treated in the 3m1f handicap chase. Savitha has more than a few questions to answer on the attitude front after her run at Leopardstown last time but it will be very disappointing if she can't make the three in the opener at Cork.

Ellen Construction Thyestes Chase, Gowran Park, January 22nd - The Key Trends

- A weight trend is dominant here; no winner since 2000 has carried more than 10-11 to victory before jockeys’ claims were taken into account. In the same timeframe, no horse with more than 10-13 made the first three.
- Official ratings are available for this race since 1997 and no horse has won off a mark higher than 133.
- Track specialist Bob Treacy won this as a 12yo in 2001 but the general tendency since the millennium has been towards the younger horses; seven-, eight- and nine-year-olds have won every other renewal since 2000. 8yos lead the way with 4 of the last 9 winners as well as 7 placed horses in the same period.
- A recent run is a must – all of the last 10 winners had run in the previous month. Where they finished seems not so important with one winning, three placing, three finishing unplaced, two being pulled up and another falling.
- As so often, respect unexposed horses: 9 of the last 11 winners had no more than 5 outings in handicap chases.
- In a similar pattern, concentrate on novices and second-season chasers. 9 of the last 11 winners were in their first or second season over fences with one of the exceptions being Dun Doire who was a third-season chaser in name only.
- Preists Leap looked suspiciously like a freak winner as a 20/1 shot last term; certainly he had nothing like the proven stamina of the previous winners. With the 10 winners prior to him all having won over at least 3 miles (7 had won over further), we can reasonably expect staying power to come to the fore again.
- Only Willie Mullins has won this race more than once in recent times with 3 winners since 2000. He’s also had a pair of runners-up and a third and given his current form it would be no surprise to see his runners involved again.
- Course form around Gowran Park should not be underestimated – 7 of the last 10 winners had made the frame at the track already.

Meeting Review: Leopardstown, January 11th

Positives: Coscorrig is a mare that just has a really nice way of doing things, jumping boldly from the front and daring those in behind to keep with her. In the end she probably set the 2m1f beginners chase up for the strong staying Majestic Concorde who was a 2-miler on the flat. The 6yo has only one way of running (choke-out!) but it’s a matter of time before one of these maiden chase falls her way and she always offers the option of getting out in-running. A return to the bare 2m and faster ground would be an advantage.

Negatives: While his chase debut second to Made In Taipan was encouraging, Jaamid just hasn’t gone on in 4 starts since and is becoming a professional loser. He’s won just once since April 2007 and has a disappointing overall strike-rate of 4 wins from 34 starts; the 7yo looks short of any sort of speed in a finish. Neither of Tony Martin’s runners in the Pierse Hurdle makes much appeal as horses to follow, albeit for different reasons. Robin Du Bois is simply over-rated; little he’s done recently suggests he can win off a mark of a mark of 118 and is best left alone despite the public perception that he’s a well-handicapped horse. Psycho was, and possibly still is, a well-treated horse but reassessment after his narrow defeat in the Pierse is likely to see him upped to a rating well into the 130s (his last winning mark was 99) and he will racing off a mark significantly higher in England where he is likely to be seen in the coming months. There was little doubt that he offered value at around 7/1 in the morning here but he’s been an unlucky horse in 3 of his last 4 starts and the bookies love nothing more – the 8yo will be priced up accordingly in his next few starts.

Pointers: Financial Reward brought the best recent form to the table in the Grade 2 novice chase having won a stronger event at the same level last time and on the face of things his effort in finishing fourth was below-par. However, there’s every chance that Willie Mullins’ runner was inconvenienced by racing this way around – his form figures on left-handed tracks over jumps now read:42826034 – while his right-handed figures are an altogether better:12132290141. I wouldn’t have backed Schindlers Hunt with bad money in the reduced trip Leopardstown Chase (definitely an improvement, there are more than enough staying handicaps chases and a dearth of classy events over shorter) but he proved Paddy Flood’s assessment that he needed a step up in trip totally correct. This win brought his Leopardstown figures to an impressive:23111351 and the Foxrock venue seems to bring him to life without fail. I wouldn’t quibble with anyone’s assessment of Badgerlaw as a dodge; his lifetime record of 3 wins from 22 starts confirms as much. However, he is a horse that likes decent ground and this third in the Pertemps Qualifier brought his record on ground faster than yielding to soft to:2222112242PF3. A winner is yet to emerge from the novice handicap hurdle won by Ross Accord at the Christmas meeting here but I still suspect the form is strong; the third, fifth and seventh have all gone very close since, finding only in-form rivals Sky Captain and Mission Possible too good. The winner is of obvious interest but his connections mean he’s never going to be a big price – a better representative of the form may prove to be Pistol Flash. John Mulhern’s mare impressed on her first run for a year and has enough form from 2007 to say that a mark of 102 will allow her to win races. The 4yo bumper provided a boil-over with Tornedo Shay winning but I wouldn’t yet give up on Ragtime, a well-fancied contender from the Eddie Hales yard. His trainer holds an excellent record in his race (his runners have figures of:218011 since 2000) and Enquiring Mind was one that bounced back from a poor run in this event to beat De Valira on his next start. I’m sure the ideal scenario for Hales was the horse would win and be sold to England at an expensive price but there’s every chance he didn’t act on the rain-softened ground – 3 of his 4 siblings wanted it on top.

Weekend NAP - January 11th, 2009

Leopardstown 1.45 - Finger Onthe Pulse

Season to date: +1.5

Last Weekend: Jayo, WON @6/4

Finger Onthe Pulse is the definition of a trend horse, his form figures on left-handed tracks reading:1213111U21. The only horses to have beaten him on anti-clockwise tracks are Grade 1 winners Iktitaf, Nicanor and Glencove Marina and he will certainly enjoy this return to handicap company, not that his run in a Grade 3 last time was too shabby - he finished second to subsequent John Durkan winner Noland with the Troytown and Welsh National hero Notre Pere back in fourth.
However, it's the form of his Jewson win at last year's Cheltenham Festival that really supports his chance here; the horses to chase him home, Barbers Shop and Possol, are now rated 159 and 143 respectively, suggesting he's well-handicapped off 144. The lack of a recent run is of little concern as his form figures after a break of 2 months or more read:1F110U311 and with mark and conditions all in his favour, a big run is expected. The unexposed Kilcrea Castle may prove his biggest danger but his overall form suggests he should be getting more than 5lbs from the favourite.
The featured Pierse Hurdle is typically difficult with my shortlist comprising the trio of Psycho, Fen Game and Alpine Eagle. I suspect Psycho remains a well-handicapped horse and a repeat of his effort when falling here on Hennessy Day or his County Hurdle second should be good enough, while Fen Game is officially 6lbs well-in and can reverse form with Imperial Hills. Alpine Eagle goes against my trends-based approach but his trainer does well here with few runners (since 1996, she's had 2 winners, a second and a fifth from 8 runners) and the 5yo looks well-treated if over his Limerick exertions.
Finally, Coscorrig is of significant interest in the first. In a field made up of chase debutantes and disappointing types like Jaamid, she has as good a form as any. Her Naas run when third to Made In Taipan was excellent and can be upgraded on the basis that she tried to make all; this easier track and faster ground should suit and she can make a bold bid from the front. Tissue prices of around 7/1 seriously underestimate her chance.

Leopardstown Chase - Leopardstown, January 11th: The Key Trends

- The ground has been no faster than yielding-soft in the past 10 years.
- Arthur Moore is a trainer to note. He has saddled 2 winners and 4 placed horse in the past decade including the second and third last year.
- Unlike many of the top staying handicaps, weight seems not to matter and there is no reason why lightly-weighted contenders should be given preference. The top-weight has won the last 2 renewals while winners in the preceding 8 years carried 12-0, 11-11 and 11-1 to victory.
- 7 of the last 9 winners have been rated between 134 and 144.
- 9yos are the dominant age-group with 6 winners and 5 runners-up since 1999. Horses in double figures can and do win this as What A Native (10yo) and Buck Rogers (11yo) have shown but both were very lightly raced for their age having had just 9 and 10 chase starts respectively and as a rule I’d be against very exposed horses.
- The market was a fine guide between 1999 and 2006 with every winner returned at 7/1 or shorter but its efficiency hasn’t been great lately with 14/1 shots winning the last 2 runnings.
- Concentrate on in-form horses; 8 of the last 9 winners had finished in the first four on their last completed start.
- Of the big winter handicaps, the Troytown has been a much better guide than the Paddy Power. Half of the winners in the last decade ran in the Navan race, finishing:11423, while only two had run in the December 27th event, one being brought down and the other finishing eleventh. No surprise there as the Leopardstown Chase and Troytown share much in common being classy affairs contested by much smaller fields (only one field of more than 15 since 1999) than the Paddy Power which is more of a lottery. And yes, I’ve never backed the winner of it!
- 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the previous 6 weeks.
- Focus on unexposed horses. Of the last 10 winners, only Cloudy Bays (a Charles Byrnes special) had more than 9 starts in handicap chases.
- In the same vein, second- and third-season chasers dominate. The aforementioned What A Native and Buck Rogers may have had their chase runs spread out due to injuries but they were second- and third-season chasers in all but name like the all the other recent winners.
- Proven stamina isn’t a pre-requisite for success as 3 of the recent winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had previously won over at least 2m5f though.

Weekend NAP - January 4th

Last Week: Realt Dubh, won @ 9/10

2008: + 17.9

A pleasing ending to the 2008 NAP series, when despite Paul Carberry's best efforts to get it beat, Realt Dubh picked up well in the straight and collared the front-running Sorceror close home.
Overall, the year was a success with 16 of the 43 tips winning for a level-stakes profit of almost 18 points. My highlights were the dual winner Almass and Catch Me as well as Well Tutored and Won In The Dark. So onwards and upwards to 2009...

Naas 1.15 - Jayo

I can't have it that Made In Taipan will be in peak form here; his Leopardstown run was below-par and he should have finished a lot closer to Follow The Plan who he beat last time out (albeit in receipt of weight) while his jumping was lacklustre throughout. His trainer has a tendency to place his horses in what could be politely termed 'strange' ways and and this one looks to be suffering the effects of a number of hard races recently - this will be his sixth outing in less than 3 months.
Jayo wasn't too far behind Made In Taipan over hurdles(rated 137 as opposed to the favourite's 145) but more importantly, and unlike his main rival, he arrives here on an upward curve. His travelled all over some good horses last time and the form of his 2 previous runs has worked out - Good Fella, Top Of The Rock, Lochan Lacha and Askthemaster have all run well since. He gets a handy 4lbs allowance from the top and his yard are in infinitely better form than Made In Taipan's.
The others are out-classed with the possible exception of Chiraaz who surely needs further to show his best.