November Handicap, Leopardstown November 2nd - The Key Trends*

- 8 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.
- Age seems irrelevant here as horses aged between 3 and 11 have won since 1998.
- Highly-rated 3yos do win this – Lounaos won off 98 in 2006 while Enzeli defied a mark of 102 in 1998 – but none of 8 older horses to win in past decade was rated higher than 89.
- Scottish Memories hadn’t run since the Champion Hurdle in March when landing this race in 2003 but preference should be given to race-fit runners; 9 of the last 10 winners had an outing in the previous 7 weeks.
- Respect in-form horses. Of the 9 winners to have had a recent outing, only 1 finished out of the first six. 4 were last time out winners, including 3 of the last 4 victors.
- Predominantly National Hunt trainers have dominated affairs lately - only John Oxx and Mick Halford (whose winner was the hurdler Golden Cross) have struck for the flat brigade since 1998.
- Athlumney Lad was a total trends-buster when winning this race last year having had 34 previous handicap starts – none of the other 9 winners in the period covered had run more than 7 times in handicap company.
- 7 of the last 9 winners had already won a handicap in the season of their victory.
- Look out for classy jumps performers. Of the last 7 winners, 5 had a published hurdles mark of 117 or more while Dorans Pride was a 157-rated chaser at the time of his win.
- Proven stamina is a massive plus – 7 of the last 10 winners had won over at least 14f on the level. Of the exceptions, Scottish Memories was a multiple graded winner over hurdles while Calladine had won a 3-mile handicap hurdle.
*Bubble N Squeak was first past the post in the 2002 renewal but was later disqualified when a banned substance was found in her sample– for the purpose of this analysis she has been considered the winner.

Meeting Review: Leopardstown, October 27th

Positives: When Mick Kinane opted to ride Vitruvian Man in the Killavullan Stakes, I was starting to doubt my claim that Rayeni was a ‘formality’ for the Group 3 but initial impressions of the Indian Ridge colt’s debut proved well-founded as he fairly bolted away with things. Settled in sixth, Fran Berry and the Aga Khan colt made up ground effortlessly turning into the straight and was still on the bridle as he took things up a furlong from home before going away to win by an easy length and a half. The visuals were striking and, as at Naas, the performance was backed up by the clock as he clocked by far the best time of the four races run over 7f on the card. Oxx has a strong crop of juvenile colts this season and I suspect this one is the pick though his trainer has pointed out that he needs to get his toe in. With that in mind he’s probably not one to consider for an ante-post bet but given the weather that we’ve had over the past two summers he may have ample opportunity to prove himself on his ideal conditions in 2009 and looks an strong candidate to uphold this race’s recent tradition of throwing up classic winners – Grey Swallow and Footstepsinthesand won it in 2003 and 2004 respectively. Qassaar was the last horse off the bit in the 7f colts & geldings maiden before managing only fourth but he looks well worth another try on a faster surface. By Cape Cross, he’s bred to like some decent ground and none of his 5 winning siblings had won on slower than good-soft. A run at Dundalk before the end of the season could be a distinct possibility.

Negatives: I don’t know if the Peter Canavan who owns Toraidhe (runner-up in the 7f maiden) is the same Peter Canavan that captained Tyrone to their first All-Ireland success, but if he is then the great Gaelic footballer will be disappointed to know that his juvenile has none of his genuine attitude to competition. The son of High Chaparral looked a difficult ride under Danny Mullins and his head carriage wouldn’t endear him either. Some of this may be down to inexperience but even so he’s not one I’d rush to back at a short price in a maiden next time.

Pointers: The strength of the Oxx juveniles was alluded to above and the Curraghbeg trainer maintained his excellent 50% strike-rate with 2yos at the track with two more winners, bringing his seasonal record to 9 winners from 18 runners. Such figures bode well for next season and while Rayeni could well prove the star of the show there are a number of others that could progress into top-level performers. The likes of Arazan and Sea The Stars have already been well-touted but keep an eye on the unexposed Beauty O’Gwaun who beat a talented sort in The Bull Hayes by 3ls at the Curragh on October 20th. The same horse had been beaten by just 2ls when 5th in the Goffs Million on his most recent start, a piece of form that paints Beauty O’Gwaun in a good light. Having run well over course and distance on his penultimate start, Mull On The Run was unsurprisingly a warm order in the Apprentice Handicap Final over 9f but the 4yo ran no sort of race and finished a tailed off last. It’s possible the ground (officially yielding-soft) was too slow for the gelding (all 3 of his wins had come on good-yielding or faster) but perhaps more to the point, he had sweated up badly in the preliminaries on what was one of the coldest days of the autumn so far and can be forgiven this poor run. Peacock’s Pride was unable to follow up his Navan success on Wednesday in the closing event but his runner-up finish marks him down as something of a 10f specialist, his record at the trip now reading:2112.

Meeting Review: Naas, October 25th

Positives: The opening maiden hurdle has historically been a good race with Catch Me, Wanango and Feathard Lady among the recent winners and this year’s renewal looked well up to scratch beforehand with a number of interesting types declared. The right horses were all involved in the finish and there should be plenty of future winners to come out of the race; the winner Donnas Palm looks ripe for a step up to graded company while both Zarinava (second) and Glenstal Abbey (fifth) should both improve for better ground. I’m not so keen on the fourth Just Friends who was the best supported runner in the race (from a morning price of 8/1 into 4s on course) – his stable’s runners tend to be ready first time out and he won on debut last term so there may not be as much improvement to come from him as the others. One horse that is sure to improve dramatically is the third Smoking Aces [WON 4/5 - Naas, 22/2/09] and he was without doubt the eye-catcher in the race. A market drifter beforehand, he was given a negative ride by Paddy Flood (raced in mid-division and kept wide throughout) but the 4yo stayed out to great effect in the closing stages having been full of 10ls behind the fourth horse jumping the second last. The combination of a step up in trip, the benefit of the run and more positive tactics should see him hard to beat and the 2m2f maiden hurdle on Hatton’s Grace Day at Fairyhouse (won by his stable-mate Merdeka) in 2005 could be his next port of call. Noel Meade isn’t known for handicapping horses by running them on unsuitable conditions but that’s exactly what he appeared to do with Island Life [WON 11/8 - Thurles, 6/11] [WON 9/4 - Gowran Park, 22/11] [WON 16/1 - Leopardstown, 1/3/09]last spring; the 5yo being held up in beginners chases on decent ground without the help of blinkers when his 2 previous wins had come from front in headgear on testing going. The blinds were back on for the 2m handicap chase and the 112-rated hurdler looked like he was going to exploit a chase mark of 89 when hitting the front travelling well only to tip up at the third last. Though the cat may be out of the bag regarding this one, he at least showed that he retains his ability and will be winning a handicap chase or two in the near future. Ninetieth Minute [WON 11/2 - Fairyhouse, 13/12] [WON 3/1 - Thurles, 21/12] [WON 14/1 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] was disappointing last term after a bright start but he showed up well in the featured handicap hurdle behind Kirbybroguelantern and was probably unlucky not to finish second having made a bad mistake at the second last. A mark of 123 is hardly lenient for a horse that has won just once over hurdles and the fact that he didn’t improve through the season last year is a worry, but this was a run full of promise and he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest he can win a decent handicap off his rating. Lots Of Shots was the subject of a significant gamble in the 2m handicap hurdle (from 10s into 9/2 on course) but his run was too bad to be true and was pulled up down the back. He’d run a cracker over 2m4f at Punchestown last time when looking like the winner turning for home but his stamina gave out close home and he had a very hard race in the process. That run came after a short break and he might just need time between his races and isn’t one to give up on just yet. The winner of the race, Merry Cowboy, looked very well-in on a hurdle mark of 95 relative to his chase rating of 123 but he probably won in spite of the 2 mile trip rather than because of it. All his previous winning form had been around two and a half miles and on right-handed tracks and the rain that got into the ground throughout the day certainly helped turn this race into the stamina test he needs. He had to be vigorously ridden to win here by a length and with the handicapper unlikely to be too harsh on him, the 7yo should be hard to beat in a similar contest upped in trip.

Negatives: Noble Crusader has long been an over-rated horse as his defeats at odds of 15/8 and 6/4 at the Galway Races 2008 suggest and he ran another poor race in the 3m novice hurdle. The ground was hardly in his favour here (he’s by Giant’s Causeway) but either way he’s one to field against if he is campaigned through the winter. For the third time in as many races, Gallant Light found one too good in the bumper and Jessica Harrington’s is proving to be anything but his name at present. He looked awkward under pressure last time at Gowran and again traded odds-on in running here and is one to swerve as he’s not putting it all in.

Pointers: Made In Taipan needs to go left-handed (form figures:816F212) and ran a cracker when second under top-weight in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle, emerging as the best horse at the weights. As a free-going sort, this 2m4f trip on heavy ground wouldn’t have been ideal and he has possibilities back at the minimum trip going anti-clockwise. A number of horses in the same race where ridden negatively, not least Line Ball (made up good ground to finish eighth), Southern Vic (never put into the race on his first run since January 2007) and Schindlers Hunt. The last-named was running off a mark 30lbs lower than his chase rating but, having never won beyond 2m1f, finds this sort of trip beyond him. He also tends to need the run – his first time out form figures read:7255 while his figures on his second starts are:4113 – and should improve next time. The Meade yard continues in excellent form with their runners at the meeting finishing:11F307 – it’s about time I started backing some of them!

Weekend NAP - Naas, Saturday 25th October

Naas 3.10 - Sigma Lifestyle

Meeting Review: Fairyhouse, October 19th 2008

Negatives: Racing Post stat-man James Pyman produced an interesting (if perhaps not detailed enough) study of the success rate of adding blinkers in last Wednesday’s edition of the trade paper and his most striking finding from an Irish perspective was the horrible record of Aidan O’Brien-trained runners when blinkered. Something like 47 Ballydoyle runners have run with the ‘rogue’s badge’ in recent times with just one winning and Four Star General further disimproved that record when coming second in the opening 6f maiden. This was the fourth time in 8 career starts that the son of Danehill Dancer has been a beaten favourite and he’s definitely one to swerve. John Oxx is probably my favourite trainer but even the great man has his share of dogs in training and, for the third time in as many starts, Ebashan looked a complete pig in the 7f maiden. If there’s something a horse can do wrong, Ebashan will do it and in his career to date he has swished his tail, held his head high, refused to go by the leader and downed tools in the closing stages. The winner Golden Sword hasn’t progressed a jot in his 4-race career and the fact that he so comprehensively reversed form with Ebashan from their previous run in similar conditions paints the Oxx colt in a very bad light. Having hit a low of 1.03 in-running, I look forward to getting him in the in-race market again in the future.

Pointers: Having once been rated as high as 105, Majestic Times has been out of sorts for much of 2008 and has dropped to a mark of 88. His fourth in the Joe McGrath Handicap was more like what he’s capable of and the conditions certainly brought out the best in him – his record over 6f on soft or worse now reads:12173034. Having once been beaten a head in the Ayr Gold Cup of 97, he might have possibilities in a handicap granted similar conditions. Muskatsturm brought some high class handicap form from the Cesarewitch and the October Handicap into the Finale Stakes and he very nearly upset proven pattern horses when going down by a neck to Jane Austen who got an inspired ride from Johnny Murtagh. The presence of Cesarewitch winner Suailce in third is another pointer to the value of the Curragh form and anyone looking for winners of staying handicaps in the coming weeks should commence their study with these races. In comparison with England, draw biases aren’t really addressed in the Irish racing media but it’s worth noting the importance of a high stall over 6f at Fairyhouse. The first four home in an 18-runner field in the premier handicap were drawn 17, 18, 16 & 14 and horses drawn low tend to get trapped very wide on the turn into the straight. With the jumps season getting into full swing, there were a number of pointers at the away meeting at Cork. Buenos Dias was highlighted here a few weeks back and he shaped with even more encouragement than on that run at Gowran when a good eighth in the 2 mile handicap hurdle. Ridden by a 7lb claimer, he looks like he’s being run into peak fitness and should be ready to strike in the next run or two, perhaps with a more experienced jockey up. There was a sustained gamble on Alpine Eagle in the 2 mile maiden hurdle (from a morning price of 6/1 into and SP of 7/4) and he probably should have won as his jockey was a little too confident aboard the formerly smart flat performer. The 4yo impressed with the way he travelled but a slow jump at the last didn’t help his cause and while he will have little trouble winning a maiden, improvement in the jumping department is a pre-requisite for a rise in class. Jamies Choice has been a revelation since dropped to the minimum trip and his win in the Alchemy Properties Handicap Chase brought his record over 16/17f to:B911111. He’s hard to get past when he gets on the lead and may not be finished winning yet as the handicapper won’t put him up too much for a hard-fought 2l win and the Irish 2-mile chasing division in notoriously weak. The horse that chased him home was the infamous Pom Flyer who has now gone 16 runs without a win, despite being sent off at 9/2 or shorter on 10 of those occasions. He continually finds ways to lose but is a rock-solid horse for placepot perms and/or place only bets on the exchanges.

Weekend NAP - Sunday 18th October

Fairyhouse 5.30 - Kirbybroguelantern

Season to date: +13.4

Meeting Review: Naas, 12th October 2008

Positives: I think we may just have seen the emergence of a real star in the shape of Rayeni [WON 7/2 - Leopardstown, 27/10] in the opening 6f maiden. The John Oxx-trained colt was making his debut and belied his trainer’s concern that ‘he might be too green to win’ to bolt up by 5ls. Given the way they improve for a run, Oxx horses that win first time out are often smart and the performance on the clock was exceptional. The son of Indian Ridge covered the distance in 0.2s faster than the 98-rated Hallie’s Comet in the next and 0.9s faster than 89-rated Tomas An Tsioda in the Birdcatcher (both those horses also carried 9-0), suggesting ran to a figure in the low nineties at worst. This race has been a decent trial for the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown (Confuchias won both in 2006) and I would go so far as to say that the race looks a formality for him. The time of the fillies maiden wasn’t bad itself and the interesting horse is the runner-up Sioduil who split the two form horses here. She had the worst of the draw in stall 1 and had to tack across for the better ground and still managed to get within a head of a filly that was third in a Group 3 last time. The Oasis Dream filly (who on breeding may also improve for a faster ground – she’s yet to run on quicker than yielding) will have her choice of maidens before the end of the season and a 10lbs hike to 87 probably wouldn’t be enough to stop her in nursery either. The money was down for Convincing in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (from 10/1 into 6/1) but he managed only a poor third, which was no surprise as he doesn’t see out this trip. He’ll do better back at the minimum (all 4 of his hurdles wins have come over the bare 2 miles) and with a further drop in the weights likely, he should be able to win a handicap on his favoured heavy ground. I wouldn’t rule out a win on the flat where he looks well-treated off 63, though trips much beyond 10f stretch him. The October Handicap has been an excellent launching pad for decent hurdlers in recent years with the likes of Essex, Lounaos and Jazz Messenger all running well her e before thriving over obstacles. This year’s winner Menwaal reportedly has ‘legs like glass’ so I’m not sure he’ll stand up to the rigours of jumping while the 9yo Muskatsturm might be a bit old to change codes. Consequently the other placed horses are most interesting. Runner-up Jumbo Rio [WON 5/2 - Punchestown, 31/12] is just a 3yo and did very well to hit in the frame in a race that older horses have dominated recently. Tough and consistent, he hasn’t finished out of the first four in 8 starts this season and he has the touch of class necessary to make up into a decent juvenile hurdler – he doesn’t mind cut in the ground either. The fourth, Deputy Consort, absolutely loves bad ground (his figures on yielding-soft or worse in both codes read:1136124) and, despite being placed in a Grade 2 as a juvenile hurdler, has somehow dropped to a mark of 104. That sort of rating makes him a blot on the weights at present and given that he hasn’t been over-raced this summer, the 5yo should be able to exploit it fairly soon. The Meade yard have started some decent types off in the closing bumper in recent times (Aran Concerto and Back To Bid) and Pandorama [WON 4/9 - Navan, 9/11] [WON 8/13 - Navan, 23/11] won in the manner of a horse that could be anything. He’d routed a field of pointers at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and though some of these wide-margin wins can represent dubious form it’s significant that the horse to have run since (all beaten upwards of 22ls, giving weight away all around) have acquitted themselves well. Bad ground is ideal and his trainer reports that he may prove best left-handed.
Negatives: Akrisrun had run well for a long way in the Goffs Million and was well-supported from an opening show of 5s in 3/1 in the opener. His supporters (myself included!) never had a moment’s worry that he would be involved in the finish as he produced his worst run of the season by some distance. He makes no appeal as a future winner.
Pointers: The four horses that topped the handicap in the Birdcatcher were the first four home as not for the first time the race was dominated by the classier animals. Liscanna and Fourpenny Lane bucked the trend by carrying 8-4 and 8-8 in the last 2 years respectively but in the previous decade, seven winners carried at least 8-10. Next year, I’ll not try to be too clever and just find the class horse that’s suited by the conditions. The modus operandi of the Noel Meade stable is pretty much an open book at this stage – they burst out of the blocks early only to fizzle out after Christmas. All the same, it’s worth noting that the form figures of his runners (jumps only) from Friday through Sunday read:11261F002621921. I often convince myself that his runners are over-bet at this time of the year (which many of them are) but I will be making a conscious effort between now and the end of the year to find those that aren’t as a strike-rate like his simply can’t be ignored. At Limerick, Finger Onthe Pulse finally won right-handed for the first time in a 20-race career in the Grade 3 chase over 2m1f. Whether he’ll do so again is open to question (he seemed to be lugging out to the left on the first circuit) is open to question but it certainly bodes well for his season ahead. Races like the Fortria and the Dial-A-Bet Chase could be on his agenda after this (both are run on his favoured left-handed tracks) but it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with him after this as the Paddy Power looked an obvious early season target (he was a course-and-distance winner in the Jewson last term).

Meetings Review: Gowran Park & Tipperary, October 5th & 6th

Positives: Buenos Dias had enough decent form in France to say an Irish mark of 104 was exploitable in the 2m handicap hurdle on Saturday but his price on Betfair suggested that it wasn’t to be his day and the 4yo beat just three rivals home. However, this looked the run of an unfit horse as he jumped and travelled well before blowing up and can be expected to improve for this. A slight drop in the ratings won’t do his chances of winning any harm and he promises to be suited by soft ground. Fantoche wasn’t brilliant over his fences in the 2m1f beginners’ chase but in winning by a length he achieved the rare feat of landing a race in 3 codes (flat, hurdles, fences) in a calendar year. It’s on the level where he’ll be of most immediate interest as Seamus Heffernan gave him an uncharacteristically negative ride last time in the Cesarewitch, finishing well to grab fifth, and the 6yo (who isn’t harshly treated off 86) looks a live one for the November Handicap at Leopardstown in few weeks time. Baltiman looked ungenuine over hurdles but he’s been a reformed character over fences and for the second time as many chase starts, he found plenty when challenged by a seemingly dangerous rival. Already a much better chaser than hurdler, he could yet win another small graded race on soft ground or worse, conditions where his form figures read:32241211.

Negatives: The graded chase at Gowran saw Conna Castle and Knight Legend renew rivalry from Listowel last September and the first-named was inexplicably sent off as 15/8 favourite, backed in from a morning price of 4/1. I say inexplicable because to me the pair’s careers have gone separate ways since; Knight Legend marking himself as a solid graded performer while Conna Castle looking ever more inconsistent, though admittedly he did win shocking renewal of the Powers Gold Cup in the interim. Even allowing for a few non-runners, this was a significant move but Conna Castle again disappointed, being pulled up before the second last and he’s never one to back at a short price. Footy Facts was a well-fancied 11/8 shot in the graded novice chase at Tipp but he could be turning into something of a bookies’ horse; having won 4 of his first 6 starts, he’s won just once in his last 8 outings. His jumping was poor here on conditions that should have suited and he’s unlikely to prove competitive in graded class and connections have already made sure he’s going to receive a pretty lofty initial handicap mark. Having blotted his copybook by sweating up at Galway, Lucky Wish proceeded to do something similar at Tipperary and looks one to be wary off. He was keen in the preliminaries, wearing cotton in his ears and had to be taken down to post early. In the race itself, he was a disappointing last of five and he’s one to swerve at the minute, despite what the market may say (he’s been well backed on his last two starts).

Pointers: Alickadoo backed up his reappearance win at Ballinrobe with a tough success in the 3m handicap chase at Gowran and the form of the Ballinrobe race (22nd September) continues to look strong; the runner-up Rory’s Sister won by an easy 12ls on her next start too. Perhaps the horse to take from the race is Tubber Gael Holly who jumped poorly on that occasion but still had place claims before unseating at the last – she has since finished runner-up to Mac Robin at Clonmel and still has 6lbs in hand on her hurdles mark and her form figures on good or faster read:0221014132. There was plenty of talk for a number of runners in the debutantes’ bumper at Gowran and with the three market principals fighting out the finish, there’s every chance this was an above-average affair. The form could be worth following but I’m not convinced the winner is the one to take out of the race; like many from the Michael O’Brien yard, he was primed for his debut (sweated up beforehand) and may not go on from this. The Concorde Stakes saw confirmation of two horses as course specialists: Psalm loves it at Tipperary (form figures:111) while Jumbajukiba doesn’t really show much away from the Curragh these days where his figures read:41118211 with the sole poor run coming over 10f, a trip that is well beyond this free-going sort. Previous form suggested Megans Joy would be ill-suited by the heavy ground at Tipperary but perhaps small field conditions races are her ideal conditions; she isn’t the best jumper and never got competitive last time in the Galway Hurdle but the more sedate pace showed her in a better light here.

Weekend NAP - October 5th

Tipperary 2.15 - Nubar Lady