Down Royal 4.05 - Ragged Staff
Last Time: Mourinho, Won @ 11/10
Season to date: + 4.9
Saturday, June 21, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Meeting Review: Roscommon - June 8th, 2008
Positives: The opening 7f maiden was hardly the strongest affair but Hidden Door caught the eye in coming from off the pace to grab third. The other horses involved in the finish were all on the pace throughout and also had the benefit of experience, whereas the Jessica Harrington runner was making her debut. On breeding (by Montjeu) she’ll enjoy going up in trip and you’d expect one from this yard to improve a lot for the run. Emmet McNamara could be criticised for easing his mount Nortburn near the line in the 7f handicap and allowing Funatfuntasia [WON Bellewstown, 5/7 - 11/2] to get up on the inside but even so the Joanna Morgan-trained 4yo would have been an unlucky loser. Travelling much the better than his rivals, he didn’t get the run of the race but picked up well when seeing daylight. Morgan says that he doesn’t do much in front so he might benefit from the strong handling of a senior jockey as he had here but he won’t be getting much of a hike for this and can win again soon.
Negatives: Signora Frasi was a disappointing market leader in the maiden and is starting to look tripless – she didn’t seem to stay 7f here whereas last time out she’d shaped as if wanting a mile. With her connections, the Indian Ridge filly will continue to be favoured in the betting but it will be a bad race that she wins. Unwritten Rule was inexplicably backed into 3/1 joint-favouritism in the 1m4f handicap despite his trainer having said he didn’t stay the trip last time. He looks regressive and a mark of 102 seriously over-estimates his ability. I quite liked Silent Wind in the 2m handicap hurdle, not only because he seemed to have gotten off lightly with a 9lb hike for an easy win last time but also because his connections have done well with this type of summer horse in the past (see Buster, Barrack or Folly, Cunningham’s). The 106-rated flat horse jumped well but his old tail-swishing antics returned (he earned the immortal formbook comment ‘swished his tail vigorously throughout final 2f’ in Germany in June 2005) as he was asked to battle up the straight and certainly isn’t one to trust. 2 wins from 13 starts is a disappointing return for a horse of his ability and while more forcing tactics might suit, he looks a type who may want to win on the bridle which is obviously difficult in the competitive type of race he’ll be running in.
Pointers: As suggested previously, the form of the Curragh handicap won by Captain Cole on 2,000 Guineas has worked out well and Ragged Staff gave it another boost in landing the valuable 1m4f handicap. He might well be able to win again as he still looks well-in on some of his 3yo form but there are a few horses that finished behind who are also of interest, granted their conditions. The third Phantom Lad ran a big race at 20/1 and took his first time out record to:3323. Head Of The River dead-heated for fourth and continues to run well in this sort of race – the 4yo needs cut to show his best though and has never finished in the first three on ground quicker than good-yielding. The other dead-heater Definate Spectacle is especially interesting as he’s dropped to a mark he can certainly win off – he’ll prove best at 9 or 10f and runs especially well at Leopardstown where his career figures read:212014. Grantsville was a well-beaten eighth but I wouldn’t give up on her just yet – the former listed winner is rated just 75 and simply doesn’t stay this trip. 10f would be right up her street. What a trainer this Joanna Morgan is! The aforementioned Funatfuntasia formed half of an across-the-card double with Dbest at Cork (whose form figures at Mallow now read:1111) and what amazes is her ability to extract further improvement from seemingly exposed handicappers. Miss Gorica found in hard to win after a couple of wide-margin victories last term but the drop to 6f worked the oracle at Navan on Friday evening and I’d be particularly interested in Alamgiyr when he gets a handicap mark over hurdles. Dbest is likely to try to exploit a ludicrous flat mark of 55 in the coming weeks and while Raise Your Heart was his own worse enemy by not settling over hurdles, his cruising speed will surely serve him well when returning to the level.
Negatives: Signora Frasi was a disappointing market leader in the maiden and is starting to look tripless – she didn’t seem to stay 7f here whereas last time out she’d shaped as if wanting a mile. With her connections, the Indian Ridge filly will continue to be favoured in the betting but it will be a bad race that she wins. Unwritten Rule was inexplicably backed into 3/1 joint-favouritism in the 1m4f handicap despite his trainer having said he didn’t stay the trip last time. He looks regressive and a mark of 102 seriously over-estimates his ability. I quite liked Silent Wind in the 2m handicap hurdle, not only because he seemed to have gotten off lightly with a 9lb hike for an easy win last time but also because his connections have done well with this type of summer horse in the past (see Buster, Barrack or Folly, Cunningham’s). The 106-rated flat horse jumped well but his old tail-swishing antics returned (he earned the immortal formbook comment ‘swished his tail vigorously throughout final 2f’ in Germany in June 2005) as he was asked to battle up the straight and certainly isn’t one to trust. 2 wins from 13 starts is a disappointing return for a horse of his ability and while more forcing tactics might suit, he looks a type who may want to win on the bridle which is obviously difficult in the competitive type of race he’ll be running in.
Pointers: As suggested previously, the form of the Curragh handicap won by Captain Cole on 2,000 Guineas has worked out well and Ragged Staff gave it another boost in landing the valuable 1m4f handicap. He might well be able to win again as he still looks well-in on some of his 3yo form but there are a few horses that finished behind who are also of interest, granted their conditions. The third Phantom Lad ran a big race at 20/1 and took his first time out record to:3323. Head Of The River dead-heated for fourth and continues to run well in this sort of race – the 4yo needs cut to show his best though and has never finished in the first three on ground quicker than good-yielding. The other dead-heater Definate Spectacle is especially interesting as he’s dropped to a mark he can certainly win off – he’ll prove best at 9 or 10f and runs especially well at Leopardstown where his career figures read:212014. Grantsville was a well-beaten eighth but I wouldn’t give up on her just yet – the former listed winner is rated just 75 and simply doesn’t stay this trip. 10f would be right up her street. What a trainer this Joanna Morgan is! The aforementioned Funatfuntasia formed half of an across-the-card double with Dbest at Cork (whose form figures at Mallow now read:1111) and what amazes is her ability to extract further improvement from seemingly exposed handicappers. Miss Gorica found in hard to win after a couple of wide-margin victories last term but the drop to 6f worked the oracle at Navan on Friday evening and I’d be particularly interested in Alamgiyr when he gets a handicap mark over hurdles. Dbest is likely to try to exploit a ludicrous flat mark of 55 in the coming weeks and while Raise Your Heart was his own worse enemy by not settling over hurdles, his cruising speed will surely serve him well when returning to the level.
Saturday, June 7, 2008
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Meeting Review: Leopardstown - June 4th, 2008
Positives: Despite having a few quirks (he missed the break on debut and was reluctant to load here), Three Way Stretch looked a decent two-year-old in the winning the 6f maiden (traditionally a good race with recent winners including Elletelle and Holy Roman Emperor) and it would be no surprise to see him making his mark in pattern company. The form of the race can be cribbed as some of the fancied horses ran a bit below par but the fifth Comadoir and the seventh Carlito Brigante look solid yardsticks, and I certainly wouldn’t underestimate it as the runner-up was always likely to improve from his first run where he missed the break and the third has been well fancied in 2 decent races so far. His trainer is not renowned for having classy types in his yards, but this half-brother to Moon Unit looks just that and his connections should help his price in the future. Show Blessed [WON Naas, 9/7/08 - 6/1] showed up well over a trip short of his best in the 9f handicap won by Adare Manor and can strike over a distance of 10f or further. His trainer’s horses tend to run themselves into to form before winning rather than popping up out of the blue and the 8yo would also be interesting over fences off a mark of 118 – his second to Wishwillow Lord (now rated 138) at Tipperary last October looks solid form, especially with Clew Bay Cove (now 130) and Kranji (now 124) chasing the pair home.
Negatives: For the fourth time in 5 completed starts, Veidhleadoir filled a place in the 9f maiden and looked a tricky ride in the process. Not for the first time, she was well fancied and even though maidens start to get progressively (or is that regressively?!) weaker from this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be convinced she wants to put her head in front. Ferneley won a very soft Group 3 at the course last time and he’s going to be difficult to place with his penalty from now on – while not a dog, he is unreliable and can race with the choke out. 3 wins from 14 starts is hardly an impressive tally for a horse of his obvious ability.
Pointers: Mustameet is a credit to his connections and improved on his already spectacular first time out record by winning the Glencairn Stakes – his form figures on seasonal debuts now reads:1d11211 with the sole defeat coming when he hit his head on leaving the stalls in the 2006 Gladness. I really hope he stays in training as an 8yo! Power Of Future is another horse with an enviable first time out record that now reads:5112 after her neck defeat in the 2m handicap - the fifth was in a decent Newmarket maiden when she was a 33/1 second string. She is certainly handicapped to win a race on her old English form but just as she did in last year’s November Handicap, she didn’t get home over the 16f where her figures now read:0852. Her 3 career wins have come between 1m4f and 1m6f and the 5yo would be interesting if freshened up for a race over that sort of distance. In the same race, winner Queen Althea provided a notable form boost for a race she was fifth in at the Curragh on Guineas weekend and the horses that finished ahead of her would be of interest in the coming weeks. With the winner of that event, Captain Cole, apparently out for 6 months with ‘a leg’, the runner-up Ragged Staff [WON Roscommon, 8/6/08 - 3/1 ](entered at Roscommon this coming weekend, a track where he has twice run well) and the fourth Kilshannig look the best representatives of the form. Fran Berry rode a fine treble on the card and has generally been riding brilliantly lately, leaving things very tight between himself, Pat Smullen and Johnny Murtagh at the head of the jockeys’ championship. With Murtagh likely to be out of the country riding at the likes of Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood over the summer, he probably won’t have enough rides to take the title so this could come down to a scrap between Berry and the reigning champion Smullen. Smullen however is a general 11/8 for the prize while Berry is 10/1 and it doesn’t take a genius to work out where the value lies.
Negatives: For the fourth time in 5 completed starts, Veidhleadoir filled a place in the 9f maiden and looked a tricky ride in the process. Not for the first time, she was well fancied and even though maidens start to get progressively (or is that regressively?!) weaker from this stage of the season, I wouldn’t be convinced she wants to put her head in front. Ferneley won a very soft Group 3 at the course last time and he’s going to be difficult to place with his penalty from now on – while not a dog, he is unreliable and can race with the choke out. 3 wins from 14 starts is hardly an impressive tally for a horse of his obvious ability.
Pointers: Mustameet is a credit to his connections and improved on his already spectacular first time out record by winning the Glencairn Stakes – his form figures on seasonal debuts now reads:1d11211 with the sole defeat coming when he hit his head on leaving the stalls in the 2006 Gladness. I really hope he stays in training as an 8yo! Power Of Future is another horse with an enviable first time out record that now reads:5112 after her neck defeat in the 2m handicap - the fifth was in a decent Newmarket maiden when she was a 33/1 second string. She is certainly handicapped to win a race on her old English form but just as she did in last year’s November Handicap, she didn’t get home over the 16f where her figures now read:0852. Her 3 career wins have come between 1m4f and 1m6f and the 5yo would be interesting if freshened up for a race over that sort of distance. In the same race, winner Queen Althea provided a notable form boost for a race she was fifth in at the Curragh on Guineas weekend and the horses that finished ahead of her would be of interest in the coming weeks. With the winner of that event, Captain Cole, apparently out for 6 months with ‘a leg’, the runner-up Ragged Staff [WON Roscommon, 8/6/08 - 3/1 ](entered at Roscommon this coming weekend, a track where he has twice run well) and the fourth Kilshannig look the best representatives of the form. Fran Berry rode a fine treble on the card and has generally been riding brilliantly lately, leaving things very tight between himself, Pat Smullen and Johnny Murtagh at the head of the jockeys’ championship. With Murtagh likely to be out of the country riding at the likes of Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood over the summer, he probably won’t have enough rides to take the title so this could come down to a scrap between Berry and the reigning champion Smullen. Smullen however is a general 11/8 for the prize while Berry is 10/1 and it doesn’t take a genius to work out where the value lies.
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
Pattern Horse: That's Hot (5yo, GM Lyons)
Though the presence of English raiders like Cartimandua and Manzila and a few potentially smart three-year-olds makes the Ballyogan Stakes at Leopardstown look a hot fillies and mares event, That’s Hot looks sure to run a big race and can hopefully go one better than when second in the same contest last year. Ger Lyons’ 5yo has an excellent record fresh – her form figures on her first start of the season read:211 with the sole defeat coming on her racecourse debut – and having won on firm ground she will relish the conditions. Having been narrowly beaten in similar races three times in the past, she has leading form claims and looked particularly unlucky when meeting trouble in running behind Absolutelyfabulous in the Cork Stakes last May. Her 3/4l fourth in the Stewards’ Cup off 102 also reads well especially as proven pattern performers Zidane and Borderlescott were just in front of her on that occasion. Johnny Murtagh has gotten off his Queen Mary winner Elletelle (whom he has ridden in her last 6 starts) to ride suggesting a big run is imminent and her trainer recently said she was due to be covered by Acclamation so she may also have the added bonus of being in foal, something that can bring about untold improvement.
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