Trend Horse - Arch Swing (3yo, John M Oxx) - Oxx juvenile pattern winner

Curraghbeg-trained juveniles that win first are rare. Curraghbeg-trained juveniles that win pattern races are even rarer. Yet Arch Swing fits both criteria and finds herself in an elite group as Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same in their 2yo careers, suggesting that the daughter of Arch is going to be something special in 2007. Owned by the lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose 3 flat horses won a black-type event last term (not sure how significant that trend is!), she ran out a very convincing 4 ½l winner of the CL Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh last September. With a pair of 33/1 shots filling the places the form of that win is questionable but the Group 3 event has a brilliant record of producing future stars, with 7 classic winning fillies emerging from the race since 1997, and that’s not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. In terms of producing 3yo fillies to follow, this is the key race in the Irish pattern, and is far superior to the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. As such, Arch Swing catches the eye on any number of angles, and with her trainer giving her an upbeat report in a recent Irish Times interview, quotes of 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket look massive. Oxx hasn’t had a runner in the first fillies’ classic lately but Arch Swing is being trained for the race and he reports there is even a chance she may run beforehand. His latest runner in the 2,000 Guineas was the brilliant Azamour in 2004 who was good third at 25/1 before winning a pair of Group 1s and Arch Swing is well worth following for the remainder of the year.[WON Evns. - Leopardstown 7/4/04] That the yard’s 3yos have already won 3 races from 7 runs at the time of writing is yet another positive in her favour.

Trend Horse – Grigorovitch (5yo, Liam McAteer) – Needs a rapid return

Make no mistake, Grigorovitch is moderate but give him a run within a week of his last outing and he’s hard to stop. 3 run in such conditions have resulted in 2 wins and a second. An 88-rated animal who won 4 handicaps at the minimum trip for Ian Semple in England, he looks best on a fast surface. He tends to need his first run of the season, so his 3 ¼l sixth to Fit The Cove on the first day of the flat season over a 6f trip that stretches his stamina was encouraging.
McAteer is hardly the most prolific trainer around but give him a half-decent older sprinter and he knows what to do. 3 of his best horses in recent years have been Majestic Times, his half-brother Distant Times and Point Calimere, all of whom started their careers in England and improved significantly when transferring to the Meath yard. Majestic Times was rated 82 at his peak in England and now aspires to a mark of 105 here while Distant Times improved 23lbs to a mark of 83 since his first Irish run.
Grigorovitch’s trainer has a poor record with 2yos (1/54 in the last 5 years, a strikerate of 2%) and 3yos (2/80, 3 %) and is without a win in 117 attempts in races beyond a mile in the same period. But his record with older sprinters is a different ball game – 7 wins from 46 runners for a strikerate of 15% and a level stakes profit of over €26. He should be able to find a race for Grigorovitch.