The Pierse Hurdle, Leopardstown January 13th 2008 – Key Trends

- In the last 9 years, the going has always been yielding/soft or worse.
- Only 1 horse has carried more than 11-1 to victory in 12 years. 10 of the 12 winners in the same time frame carried 10-11 or less before jockeys’ claims were taken into account.
- 2 trainers have won the race twice since 1996 – Jessica Harrington and Pat Hughes.
- No horse rated higher than 127 has won since 1996. 5 of the last 6 winners have been rated between 114 and 117.
- No horse older than 8 has won in the last 12 years. Of the individual age groups, 6yos do best winning half of the last 10 renewals.
- Starting price hasn’t been a good guide with 4 winning favourites in 12 runnings, yet 16/1, 18/1 and 25/1 shots also coming home in front.
- Strong trend towards in-form horses. 9 of the last 12 victors had either won or finished second on their most recent outing, while only 1 of the 12 failed to reach the first five last time.
- Avoid horses that have been over-raced of late. None of the last 12 winners had run more than 4 times since the start of October. 6 of the last 7 winners had run twice or less since October 1st.
- No surprise to see a massive trend towards unexposed horses. None of the last 12 winners had run more than 9 times over hurdles. In the same time period, only 1 winner had run more than 4 times in handicap hurdles. Don’t be put off if your horse is yet to win a handicap as such a winner may ruin their mark in the process – only 2 of the last 11 winners had won a handicap hurdle before running here.
- This is a race for speed horses and horses with more stamina tend to struggle. Only 1 of the last 12 winners had won beyond 17f before running here.
- Just 1 of the last 12 winners was held up during the race.

Navan – December 16th, 2007

Positives: Glencove Marina [WON 11/4 - Leopardstown, 13/1/08] seems to have a massive home reputation at Willie Mullins’ and the 5yo justified strong late support to land the 2m4f Beginners Chase. Whether he’d have won had the two leaders stayed on their feet at the second last is open to question but his jumping was impressive and he was certainly closing at the time. The maiden hurdle won by Majestic Concorde at Punchestown has worked out well and Dermot Weld’s charge followed up in the imperious style his price of 2/7 suggested in the 4yo hurdle. His trainer opted to take in this soft option instead of the Grade 1 but he certainly wouldn’t have been out of place in that company and will be making his mark in pattern races soon. Lord Over had some smart bumper form in his past, including when a close third to Leading Run in the Champion Bumper at Punchestown in 2006, and shaped encouragingly on his first run in 501 days in the closing event.

Negatives: The Barry & Sandra Kelly Memorial Novice Hurdle looked a shocking renewal of the Grade 1 and though Trafford Lad has done nothing wrong to date, he hardly looks top notch. The jumping on show was awful with 40% of the field falling and the winner and runner-up trying to out-do each other with poor jumps the whole way up the straight. As previously stated, Majestic Concorde would have given them all plenty to do and the ordinary novice hurdle run over course and distance 8 days ago, in which Aranleigh and the unlucky Woodbine Willie shared the honours, is likely to have much more bearing on the season’s better races.

Pointers: Jessica Harrington suffered a blow with the untimely demise of Macs Joy over the weekend and the poor form of her stable must be a concern at present. Prior to today’s racing, she had managed just 4 places from 24 runners in the previous weeks and her 6 runners today were also turned over. Desert Abbey, a horse she recently described as ‘the best maiden hurdler in Ireland’ (albeit perhaps tongue-in-cheek!), was again disappointing in Cork and looks a complete short-runner at the 2m trip. The form of the Hatton’s Grace was let-down by Sweet Kiln at Navan who appeared to have everything in her favour. It may be that both herself and Aitmatov are simply decent performers, without being spectacular. In the Grade 2 Hilly Way Chase at Cork, The Railway Man had a nice spin around without ever seriously being put into the race. He should come on for the run and will be well-suited by going up in trip on a left-handed track.

Meeting Review: Fairyhouse – December 2nd, 2007

Positives: Well Tutored [WON Leopardstown 2/3 - 3/1] caught the eye when a staying on sixth over an insufficient trip in the 2m handicap chase. This should set him up for later targets but it is sincerely hoped that Arthur Moore campaigns him over intermediate distances this season rather than in the staying contests of last year. The 8yo may have placed in both the Paddy Power and the Thyestes but he gave the distinct impression that he doesn’t really stay 3m and his record around 2m4f reads:1F01. He certainly looks feasibly handicapped off 126 and there’s a 0-140 race over 2m4f at Punchestown next Sunday that would look ideal, or looking further ahead Limerick hosts a similar contest on the second day of their Christmas meeting. Noel Meade has some serious strength in depth in the hurdling department and it was impossible not to be impressed with his Aitmatov who landed a gritty success in the Hatton’s Grace. One of the most improved horses in training this season, he seems to act on any ground and while he may not be the ideal type for the Champion Hurdle, the Aintree Hurdle over 2m4f could be just the race for him. Silent Creek [WON Punchestown 31/12 - 3/1] was well-fancied in the 3m handicap hurdle and made stealthy headway to challenge at the second last. His challenge soon petered out in the manner of a non-stayer and will do better dropped in trip. Andrew McNamara seemed intent on giving hurding debutante Tranquil Sea [WON Leopardstown 26/12 - 3/1] an easy time of things in the 2m2f maiden hurdle and the 5yo, who was weak in the betting, can be expected to derive plenty of improvement from his second to the more experienced Sigma Digital. He travelled like the best horse in the race here and a maiden hurdle looks a formality and it would be no surprise to see that victory come at the Leopardstown Christmas fixture.

Negatives: Though both the first and second home in the 2m handicap chase, Vintage Treasure and Wanango, are unexposed and appear worth following, I’d be wary of supporting the pair on their upcoming starts. Vintage Treasure is something of a bridle merchant and the strong pace here suited him extremely well as he cruised into the race and never had to come off the bit. He may not get the same strongly-run race next time and is sure to receive a good hike in the weights to boot, while he also regressed from an impressive start to his chasing career last term that included a 10l defeat of subsequent Grade 1 winner Mister Top Notch. Wanango is another that seems likely to regress; he has won first time out in all of his 3 seasons and it would be no surprise for this brave run in second to prove his high water-mark of the year.

Pointers: Unlike a number of trainers who chose to run their horses on unsuitable ground (Paul Nolan with French Accordion and to a lesser extent, Colm Murphy with Megan’s Joy spring to mind), Eddie Harty wisely decided to pull Captain Cee Bee out of the Royal Bond Hurdle when going turned heavy. He is a horse of some potential and this cautious approach in the early stages of his thus far unbeaten hurdling career could reap benefits in the months to come. Edward O’Grady enjoyed a fine 2-day fixture at Fairyhouse, carding 3 winners including a Grade 1 win for Sky’s The Limit and a return to form for Catch Me after a disappointing run on the flat last time. It was the Ballynonty handler’s sixth winner in a fortnight which must make Clopf’s flop (excuse the half-rhyme) at Newcastle all the more worrying. He looks a complete hype-merchant and is not a horse I’d be backing any time soon, if ever. Giolla De showed his liking for Clonmel again when just going under to Merry Cowboy in the 2m4f handicap chase but while the winner is a tough sort, Francis Flood’s horse habitually finds zilch off the bridle and somehow found a way to lose despite looking the winner the whole way up the straight. He’s one to be wary of wherever he runs next.

Paddy Power Handicap Chase, Leopardstown December 27th - The Key Trends

- Only once in the last 10 runnings has the race been run on faster than yielding/soft ground.
- Cane Brake won the race off 11-3 last term (apprentice jockey claimed 7lbs), but the previous 7 winners carried (including claims): 10-5, 10-8, 10-1, 9-11, 9-2, 9-5, 10-8.
- All of the last 9 winners were aged between 6 and 8 – 2 were 6yos, 4 were 7yos, 3 were 9yos.
- Winners were returned at a variety of prices.
- Of the last 9 winners, none finishes worse than 5th LTO. 7 of those 9 had finished in the first three.
- All of the last 10 winners had run in the previous 47 days (i.e. 7 weeks). None had more than 4 runs since October.
- Massive trend towards unexposed horses – none of the previous 10 winners had run more than 7 times in handicaps.
- 5 of the last 10 winners were previous track winners. 2 of the other winners had a first three finish at the track to their name.
- Proven stamina isn’t huge important – 5 of the last 10 winners had yet to win over 3 miles. All had won over 2m5f though.
- Tactics makes little difference.
- 6 of the last 10 winners, including the last 3 (the race is possibly becoming a classier affair), had placed in a pattern race.
- None of the last 9 winners had been chasing for more than 3 seasons. 8 were second-season chasers or novices.

Meeting Review: Punchestown, November 18th 2007

Positives: Glenrock Leader relished the testing conditions in the 2m4f maiden hurdle and could be up to making his mark in graded company when he has his ground but his stablemate Oscar Honey [WON Clonmel 2/3 - 2/1] could be the one to take from the race. Having his first start since May, the 6yo really looked the part in the parade ring and seemed to blow up in the closing stages having looked the biggest danger to the winner entering the closing stages. He will come on a ton for this and will be hard to stop next time. In a similar event at Cork, former point-to-point winner Golden Kite [WON Limerick 26/12 - 15/8] ran a second good race in two racecourse appearances and is another whose turn won’t be long in coming.

Negatives: Not for the first time, Forest Leaves found little of the bridle in the 2m6f handicap chase and is one to oppose at a short price in-running on his next start. It has to be worrying for connections that Bridge Run has failed to get off the mark in his two chase starts to date as he’s the type to go well fresh and his trainer reports that he has run up light after hard races in the past. I’d expect his form to regress from here if returned to the track quickly and with his jumping hardly brilliant he’s not one to be with next time. Mick The Man has one of the worst head carriages in racing but he never got close enough to Glenrock Leader today to throw in the towel. His second place finish today ensures he’ll be a short price next time and is one to get in-running. It's hard to get carried away with the form of the Maplewood Developments Hurdle won by Jazz Messenger with high-profile novices Clopf, Ebaziyan and Bob's Pride being particularly disappointing. It's highly doubtful that there was a Champion Hurdle winner in the field and if such a horse was seen today, then surely it was Sizing Europe.

Pointers: The form of the maiden hurdle won by O’Hana at Galway on October 29th received two significant boosts at Cork when the second and third won their respective contests. Willie Mullins’ 5yo has a fine record with cut (form figures:411) and figures to be a major player in all those graded mares’ novice hurdles. Noel Meade is having a spectacular time of things with his bumper horses and took both the Punchestown and Cork contests this weekend. With such strength, it appears significant that he took Chateau d’Eau to Cheltenham for the listed bumper. The 4yo was withdrawn before that event was abandoned so probably doesn’t want heavy ground but I suspect he’s the best of the Castletown bumper team. Cork’s 2m4f beginners’ chase looked a hot event with the front three in the market pulling well clear of the remainder. The third, Tom Taaffe’s Finger Onthe Pulse [WON Cheltenham - 13/3/08 - 9/1] , has always been thought of as a chaser and he did very well to finish so close as he’s never been at his best going right-handed. His left-handed form figures read:1213111U and would be a strong fancy next at a track like Navan or Naas, whatever the opposition.

Trend Horse - Arch Swing (3yo, John M Oxx) - Oxx juvenile pattern winner

Curraghbeg-trained juveniles that win first are rare. Curraghbeg-trained juveniles that win pattern races are even rarer. Yet Arch Swing fits both criteria and finds herself in an elite group as Sinndar, Alamshar and Azamour all achieved the same in their 2yo careers, suggesting that the daughter of Arch is going to be something special in 2007. Owned by the lucky Pat Garvey, all of whose 3 flat horses won a black-type event last term (not sure how significant that trend is!), she ran out a very convincing 4 ½l winner of the CL Weld Park Stakes at the Curragh last September. With a pair of 33/1 shots filling the places the form of that win is questionable but the Group 3 event has a brilliant record of producing future stars, with 7 classic winning fillies emerging from the race since 1997, and that’s not even to mention Sir Mark Prescott’s smart pair Alborada and Last Second. In terms of producing 3yo fillies to follow, this is the key race in the Irish pattern, and is far superior to the Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. As such, Arch Swing catches the eye on any number of angles, and with her trainer giving her an upbeat report in a recent Irish Times interview, quotes of 20/1 for the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket look massive. Oxx hasn’t had a runner in the first fillies’ classic lately but Arch Swing is being trained for the race and he reports there is even a chance she may run beforehand. His latest runner in the 2,000 Guineas was the brilliant Azamour in 2004 who was good third at 25/1 before winning a pair of Group 1s and Arch Swing is well worth following for the remainder of the year.[WON Evns. - Leopardstown 7/4/04] That the yard’s 3yos have already won 3 races from 7 runs at the time of writing is yet another positive in her favour.

Trend Horse – Grigorovitch (5yo, Liam McAteer) – Needs a rapid return

Make no mistake, Grigorovitch is moderate but give him a run within a week of his last outing and he’s hard to stop. 3 run in such conditions have resulted in 2 wins and a second. An 88-rated animal who won 4 handicaps at the minimum trip for Ian Semple in England, he looks best on a fast surface. He tends to need his first run of the season, so his 3 ¼l sixth to Fit The Cove on the first day of the flat season over a 6f trip that stretches his stamina was encouraging.
McAteer is hardly the most prolific trainer around but give him a half-decent older sprinter and he knows what to do. 3 of his best horses in recent years have been Majestic Times, his half-brother Distant Times and Point Calimere, all of whom started their careers in England and improved significantly when transferring to the Meath yard. Majestic Times was rated 82 at his peak in England and now aspires to a mark of 105 here while Distant Times improved 23lbs to a mark of 83 since his first Irish run.
Grigorovitch’s trainer has a poor record with 2yos (1/54 in the last 5 years, a strikerate of 2%) and 3yos (2/80, 3 %) and is without a win in 117 attempts in races beyond a mile in the same period. But his record with older sprinters is a different ball game – 7 wins from 46 runners for a strikerate of 15% and a level stakes profit of over €26. He should be able to find a race for Grigorovitch.

Horses to Watch

In The High Grass (6yo, TJ Taaffe) – Despite flopping as a 1/2f last time at Clonmel, In The High Grass remains of considerable interest in 2m handicap chases on right-handed tracks. His recent defeat can be put down to a pair of factors – he may not have seen out the 2m4f trip, and/or he may have found the race coming too soon after his impressive Gowran Park win just 3 days previous. The form of that event looks rock-solid, with the useful yardstick On The Net comprehensively out-pointed in second, and decent rivals like Old Flame and Don’t Be Bitin in behind. This was the first time In The High Grass has had his ideal conditions since winning at Clonmel in November (beating Alexander Taipan by 8ls, who would have won the Gr.1 Novice Chase on Hennessy Day if standing up) and he took full advantage. All 4 of his wins have come on right-handed tracks, and given that he has flopped on a number of occasions when going the other way round, and a tendency to jump to right at Leopardstown over Christmas, the ideal race for him looks the Dan Moore Memorial Chase over 2m at the Fairyhouse Easter meeting. He has taken a 10lb hike in the ratings to 132, but that looks far from prohibitive, and with the top-weight in that event last year running off 141 he is likely to get in off a fair weight. Couple this with the fact that he met with a readily excusable defeat last time, and he has to be of significant interest.

Davorin (6yo, RP Burns) – Ran a very encouraging eighth in the Irish Lincoln (beaten 11 ½ls by Deauville Vision) over a trip to short for him. Trainer Robbie Burns reported beforehand: "We're putting blinkers on to try and sharpen him. We're looking at running him over hurdles at Aintree and maybe Punchestown, so we're just hoping for a good run over a trip which will probably be a bit short for him." From 4 starts over hurdles this winter, he has won twice (once courtesy of a disqualified winner) on ground that is far too soft for him – all his decent flat form is on genuine good ground and significant improvement can be expected back on a similar surface. His form on the flat is solid – last year he chased home Crossing (runner-up in valuable handicap NTO) and Rockhall Blizzard (listed winner NTO) at the Curragh) – and has other form tying him in with the likes of Essex. He is a big scopey sort who was originally bought as a hurdler but was so good on the flat they kept him there (he improved from 77 to a career high of 93 since arriving from England). A mark of 116 over hurdles does not look overly harsh and he should be able to go close in a handicap at one of the spring festivals. The trainer’s only runner in England lately was a horse called Boleyknowsbest in the 2m handicap hurdle at Aintree – he finished an honourable sixth as a 33/1 outsider and that race looks a good target for Davorin.