Positives: The opening maiden hurdle has historically been a good race with Catch Me, Wanango and Feathard Lady among the recent winners and this year’s renewal looked well up to scratch beforehand with a number of interesting types declared. The right horses were all involved in the finish and there should be plenty of future winners to come out of the race; the winner Donnas Palm looks ripe for a step up to graded company while both Zarinava (second) and Glenstal Abbey (fifth) should both improve for better ground. I’m not so keen on the fourth Just Friends who was the best supported runner in the race (from a morning price of 8/1 into 4s on course) – his stable’s runners tend to be ready first time out and he won on debut last term so there may not be as much improvement to come from him as the others. One horse that is sure to improve dramatically is the third Smoking Aces [WON 4/5 - Naas, 22/2/09] and he was without doubt the eye-catcher in the race. A market drifter beforehand, he was given a negative ride by Paddy Flood (raced in mid-division and kept wide throughout) but the 4yo stayed out to great effect in the closing stages having been full of 10ls behind the fourth horse jumping the second last. The combination of a step up in trip, the benefit of the run and more positive tactics should see him hard to beat and the 2m2f maiden hurdle on Hatton’s Grace Day at Fairyhouse (won by his stable-mate Merdeka) in 2005 could be his next port of call. Noel Meade isn’t known for handicapping horses by running them on unsuitable conditions but that’s exactly what he appeared to do with Island Life [WON 11/8 - Thurles, 6/11] [WON 9/4 - Gowran Park, 22/11] [WON 16/1 - Leopardstown, 1/3/09]last spring; the 5yo being held up in beginners chases on decent ground without the help of blinkers when his 2 previous wins had come from front in headgear on testing going. The blinds were back on for the 2m handicap chase and the 112-rated hurdler looked like he was going to exploit a chase mark of 89 when hitting the front travelling well only to tip up at the third last. Though the cat may be out of the bag regarding this one, he at least showed that he retains his ability and will be winning a handicap chase or two in the near future. Ninetieth Minute [WON 11/2 - Fairyhouse, 13/12] [WON 3/1 - Thurles, 21/12] [WON 14/1 - Cheltenham, 11/3/09] was disappointing last term after a bright start but he showed up well in the featured handicap hurdle behind Kirbybroguelantern and was probably unlucky not to finish second having made a bad mistake at the second last. A mark of 123 is hardly lenient for a horse that has won just once over hurdles and the fact that he didn’t improve through the season last year is a worry, but this was a run full of promise and he has a couple of pieces of form that suggest he can win a decent handicap off his rating. Lots Of Shots was the subject of a significant gamble in the 2m handicap hurdle (from 10s into 9/2 on course) but his run was too bad to be true and was pulled up down the back. He’d run a cracker over 2m4f at Punchestown last time when looking like the winner turning for home but his stamina gave out close home and he had a very hard race in the process. That run came after a short break and he might just need time between his races and isn’t one to give up on just yet. The winner of the race, Merry Cowboy, looked very well-in on a hurdle mark of 95 relative to his chase rating of 123 but he probably won in spite of the 2 mile trip rather than because of it. All his previous winning form had been around two and a half miles and on right-handed tracks and the rain that got into the ground throughout the day certainly helped turn this race into the stamina test he needs. He had to be vigorously ridden to win here by a length and with the handicapper unlikely to be too harsh on him, the 7yo should be hard to beat in a similar contest upped in trip.
Negatives: Noble Crusader has long been an over-rated horse as his defeats at odds of 15/8 and 6/4 at the Galway Races 2008 suggest and he ran another poor race in the 3m novice hurdle. The ground was hardly in his favour here (he’s by Giant’s Causeway) but either way he’s one to field against if he is campaigned through the winter. For the third time in as many races, Gallant Light found one too good in the bumper and Jessica Harrington’s is proving to be anything but his name at present. He looked awkward under pressure last time at Gowran and again traded odds-on in running here and is one to swerve as he’s not putting it all in.
Pointers: Made In Taipan needs to go left-handed (form figures:816F212) and ran a cracker when second under top-weight in the Brown Lad Handicap Hurdle, emerging as the best horse at the weights. As a free-going sort, this 2m4f trip on heavy ground wouldn’t have been ideal and he has possibilities back at the minimum trip going anti-clockwise. A number of horses in the same race where ridden negatively, not least Line Ball (made up good ground to finish eighth), Southern Vic (never put into the race on his first run since January 2007) and Schindlers Hunt. The last-named was running off a mark 30lbs lower than his chase rating but, having never won beyond 2m1f, finds this sort of trip beyond him. He also tends to need the run – his first time out form figures read:7255 while his figures on his second starts are:4113 – and should improve next time. The Meade yard continues in excellent form with their runners at the meeting finishing:11F307 – it’s about time I started backing some of them!
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
1 comment:
Good stuff lad. Interesting comments regarding Island Life, and especially Smoking Aces.
Post a Comment