Meeting Review: Naas, 12th October 2008

Positives: I think we may just have seen the emergence of a real star in the shape of Rayeni [WON 7/2 - Leopardstown, 27/10] in the opening 6f maiden. The John Oxx-trained colt was making his debut and belied his trainer’s concern that ‘he might be too green to win’ to bolt up by 5ls. Given the way they improve for a run, Oxx horses that win first time out are often smart and the performance on the clock was exceptional. The son of Indian Ridge covered the distance in 0.2s faster than the 98-rated Hallie’s Comet in the next and 0.9s faster than 89-rated Tomas An Tsioda in the Birdcatcher (both those horses also carried 9-0), suggesting ran to a figure in the low nineties at worst. This race has been a decent trial for the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown (Confuchias won both in 2006) and I would go so far as to say that the race looks a formality for him. The time of the fillies maiden wasn’t bad itself and the interesting horse is the runner-up Sioduil who split the two form horses here. She had the worst of the draw in stall 1 and had to tack across for the better ground and still managed to get within a head of a filly that was third in a Group 3 last time. The Oasis Dream filly (who on breeding may also improve for a faster ground – she’s yet to run on quicker than yielding) will have her choice of maidens before the end of the season and a 10lbs hike to 87 probably wouldn’t be enough to stop her in nursery either. The money was down for Convincing in the 2m3f handicap hurdle (from 10/1 into 6/1) but he managed only a poor third, which was no surprise as he doesn’t see out this trip. He’ll do better back at the minimum (all 4 of his hurdles wins have come over the bare 2 miles) and with a further drop in the weights likely, he should be able to win a handicap on his favoured heavy ground. I wouldn’t rule out a win on the flat where he looks well-treated off 63, though trips much beyond 10f stretch him. The October Handicap has been an excellent launching pad for decent hurdlers in recent years with the likes of Essex, Lounaos and Jazz Messenger all running well her e before thriving over obstacles. This year’s winner Menwaal reportedly has ‘legs like glass’ so I’m not sure he’ll stand up to the rigours of jumping while the 9yo Muskatsturm might be a bit old to change codes. Consequently the other placed horses are most interesting. Runner-up Jumbo Rio [WON 5/2 - Punchestown, 31/12] is just a 3yo and did very well to hit in the frame in a race that older horses have dominated recently. Tough and consistent, he hasn’t finished out of the first four in 8 starts this season and he has the touch of class necessary to make up into a decent juvenile hurdler – he doesn’t mind cut in the ground either. The fourth, Deputy Consort, absolutely loves bad ground (his figures on yielding-soft or worse in both codes read:1136124) and, despite being placed in a Grade 2 as a juvenile hurdler, has somehow dropped to a mark of 104. That sort of rating makes him a blot on the weights at present and given that he hasn’t been over-raced this summer, the 5yo should be able to exploit it fairly soon. The Meade yard have started some decent types off in the closing bumper in recent times (Aran Concerto and Back To Bid) and Pandorama [WON 4/9 - Navan, 9/11] [WON 8/13 - Navan, 23/11] won in the manner of a horse that could be anything. He’d routed a field of pointers at the Fairyhouse Easter Meeting and though some of these wide-margin wins can represent dubious form it’s significant that the horse to have run since (all beaten upwards of 22ls, giving weight away all around) have acquitted themselves well. Bad ground is ideal and his trainer reports that he may prove best left-handed.
Negatives: Akrisrun had run well for a long way in the Goffs Million and was well-supported from an opening show of 5s in 3/1 in the opener. His supporters (myself included!) never had a moment’s worry that he would be involved in the finish as he produced his worst run of the season by some distance. He makes no appeal as a future winner.
Pointers: The four horses that topped the handicap in the Birdcatcher were the first four home as not for the first time the race was dominated by the classier animals. Liscanna and Fourpenny Lane bucked the trend by carrying 8-4 and 8-8 in the last 2 years respectively but in the previous decade, seven winners carried at least 8-10. Next year, I’ll not try to be too clever and just find the class horse that’s suited by the conditions. The modus operandi of the Noel Meade stable is pretty much an open book at this stage – they burst out of the blocks early only to fizzle out after Christmas. All the same, it’s worth noting that the form figures of his runners (jumps only) from Friday through Sunday read:11261F002621921. I often convince myself that his runners are over-bet at this time of the year (which many of them are) but I will be making a conscious effort between now and the end of the year to find those that aren’t as a strike-rate like his simply can’t be ignored. At Limerick, Finger Onthe Pulse finally won right-handed for the first time in a 20-race career in the Grade 3 chase over 2m1f. Whether he’ll do so again is open to question (he seemed to be lugging out to the left on the first circuit) is open to question but it certainly bodes well for his season ahead. Races like the Fortria and the Dial-A-Bet Chase could be on his agenda after this (both are run on his favoured left-handed tracks) but it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does with him after this as the Paddy Power looked an obvious early season target (he was a course-and-distance winner in the Jewson last term).