The Lincoln, The Curragh March 30th - The Key Trends

- Kevin Prendergast has a poor record with just 2 placed horses from 17 runners since 1997.
- 9 of the last 10 winners were rated between 81 and 92.
- All 10 winners since 1998 have been seven or younger.
- Plenty of 4yos will take their chance here – 95 have since 1997 and that’s by far the biggest representation from a single age group – and if you want to back one of the youngsters in here make sure it’s a particular type. The quartet of winning 4yos since 1998 (Tarry Flynn, Tolpuddle, Bawaader and Deauville Vision) were all unexposed as 3yos, having just 4 runs in handicaps between them and all were to finish the year rated over 100 and competing in pattern races. If a 4yo is to win this race, they really need to have plenty of scope to improve off their current mark and anything that’s had a number of runs in the handicaps as a 3yo is likely to be weighted up to the hilt of their ability.
- Only 1 winner since 1997 has carried more than 9-0 to victory.
- Oppose horses drawn in the middle third of the field. 9 of the last 10 winners were drawn with 8 stalls of either rail and it’s been a similar story with the placed horses. In last season’s field of 25, the first four home were drawn 21, 5, 18 and 24 respectively.
- With testing ground likely (the official going hasn’t been faster than yielding-soft since 1998), it’s very hard for prominent racers to get on a lead and hold it with 20-plus runners snapping at their heels. Since 1998, 4 winners were held up, 3 raced in mid-division and 3 tracked the pace. In the same time frame, only 5 runners who showed early pace made the frame and none finished better than third.
- Proven stamina is a plus. All winners since 1998 had already won over at least 8 furlongs while 8 of the last 11 winners were proven beyond the bare mile, including 4 that had won over hurdles.
- I’d also like a horse with form in big fields and this is especially the case for an older horse. With the exception of 3 of the unexposed 4yo winners, all the others were proven in big field handicaps.