Positives: Martin Brassil’s new acquisition Turtle Dubh was a warm order in the 3m handicap hurdle and was backed from a morning prices of 16/1 into an SP of 6/1. Connections are rarely far off when the money is down and he ran a decent race to finish fourth with the trip just beyond him. A rating of 117 isn’t harsh and he will be winning soon over a shorter distance. Pound for pound (and as a former jockey, she’s probably the lightest around!), Joanna Morgan is probably the best trainer in Ireland and she does exceptionally well with a batch of horse that could be at best described as moderate handicappers. But in Raise Your Heart, the Meath woman has a smart novice hurdler and the 5yo is much better than his finishing position of fourth in the Grade 2. He travelled like much the best horse in the race, in fact probably too well as he expended too much energy early, and it looked a matter of ‘how far?’ turning in as he hit 1.26 in-running. However, his trainer’s stamina concerns (Morgan said that ‘two miles on heavy ground is about as far as he wants to go’ in the Racing Post beforehand) were proven correct as he found little in the closing stages. Blessed with a very smart turn-of-foot for a jumper, he will be winning good races on better ground if this hasn’t left its mark.
Negatives: Lynott’s form figures over hurdles read:464473 and while not a dodge, the 10f flat winner just doesn’t see out 2m over sticks. It’s hard to see him winning a race in this sphere and given his capacity to travel well in his races, the 5yo presents a good in-running lay opportunity. Considering Newmill had beaten only 3 horses home in his last 4 starts, he looked a very short price in the morning and it was no surprise to see him drift out to an SP of 15/8. I strongly suspect the form of his last run at Gowran is nothing short of worthless with Nickname looking well below-par and Kicking King, well who knows? He was probably the luckiest Champion Chase winner of all time in a race that completely fell apart and rating of 160 seriously over-estimates his current ability level. With his reputation, he’s often sent off a shorter price than he should be and he makes little appeal for any future race. It looked as though Heads Onthe Ground produced a nice trial for Cheltenham when second in the cross-country chase but he’s never been the toughest in a finish and this brought his winner/runner-up scorecard to 3-11. Off a bigger weight in March, I expect him to struggle.
Pointers: Not for the first time this season, Eddie Harty made the right decision in pulling Captain Cee Bee out of a big race. Sometimes trainers get panicky when a horse in going well at home and simply feel the need to run even though conditions may be totally against them. As a US-bred who's best form has all be on decent ground, Harty made the right call on what was really bad ground and he deserves to be rewarded for his patience. Tom Taaffe had being going through a poor run lately but there were signs of his string turning a corner of late with Emotional Moment coming second at Leopardstown last week and the previously out-of-form Tumbling Dice going close in the Grade 2 chase. Better times could be on the horizon. Ruby Walsh gave Arbor Supreme a master ride to come second in the Grand National Trial, and that further improved Willie Mullins’ good recent record in the race. With his last 6 runners, he has had a winner and 4 placed horses.
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